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IMF says fragmentation could cost global economy up to 7% of GDP

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IMF says fragmentation could cost global economy up to 7% of GDP
GLOBALTIMESPAKISTAN

A severe fragmentation of the global economy after decades of increasing economic integration could reduce global economic output by up to 7%, but the losses could reach 8-12% in some countries, if technology is also decoupled, the International Monetary Fund said in a new staff report.

The IMF said even limited fragmentation could shave 0.2% off of global GDP, but said more work was needed to assess the estimated costs to the international monetary system and the global financial safety net (GFSN).

The note, released late Sunday, noted that the global flows of goods and capital had leveled off after the global financial crisis of 2008-2009, and a surge in trade restrictions seen in subsequent years.

“The COVID-19 pandemic and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine have further tested international relations and increased skepticism about the benefits of globalization,” the staff report said.

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It said deepening trade ties had resulted in a large reduction in global poverty for years, while benefitting low-income consumers in advanced economies through lower prices.

The unraveling of trade links “would most adversely impact low-income countries and less well-off consumers in advanced economies,” it said.

Restrictions on cross-border migration would deprive host economies of valuable skills while reducing remittances in migrant-sending economies. Reduced capital flows would reduce foreign direct investment, while a decline in international cooperation would pose risks to provision of vital global public goods.

The IMF said existing studies suggested that the deeper the fragmentation, the deeper the costs, with technological decoupling significantly amplifying losses from trade restrictions.

It noted that emerging market economies and low-income countries are likely to be most at risk as the global economy shifted to more “financial regionalization” and a fragmented global payment system.

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“With less international risk-sharing, (global economic fragmentation) could lead to higher macroeconomic volatility, more severe crises, and greater pressures on national buffers,” it said.

It could also weaken the ability of the global community to support countries in crisis and complicate the resolution of future sovereign debt crises.

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Stocks on steroids, as FDI prospects help KSE-100 Index jump over 60,000 hurdle

Stocks on steroids, as FDI prospects help KSE-100 Index jump over 60,000 hurdle

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Stocks on steroids, as FDI prospects help KSE-100 Index jump over 60,000 hurdle

The Pakistan Stock Exchange made another history as soon as the traders hit the floor on Tuesday as the benchmark KSE-100 Index achieved another landmark by crossing the 60,000 barrier, after Pakistan and the United Arab Emirates signed multiple memorandums of understandings (MoUs) a day earlier.

Pakistan and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) signed several multi-billion dollar MoUs in a range of areas on Monday to boost economic and strategic cooperation between the two countries, Caretaker Prime Minister Anwaarul Haq Kakar said in a video message.

The prime minister, who is on visit to the UAE, said the bilateral economic and strategic relations had entered into new era of bilateral cooperation with the signing of the MoUs.

By 10:59am, the KSE-100 Index was recorded at 60,659.14 against the previous closing of 59,811.34, representing a gain of 847.80 points, or 1.42 per cent.

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There are a number of factors contributing to the ongoing surge in stocks but the foreign currency inflow will be the major boost. The foreign direct investment (FDI) will not only revive the economy by expanding the existing businesses but also creating ones while providing the much-needed job opportunities to the people who are hit hard by the prevailing cost-of-ling crisis sustained by the record-high inflation.

At the same time, the FDI will enhance the share prices of listed companies especially in energy and related sectors – an eagerly awaited trend already being witnessed in the market after years of undervalued status.

Currently at 22pc, the interest rates, the highest in Pakistan’s history, have crippled the economy amid the rising cost of doing of doing business, as the investors either opted to take refuge in the US dollar – the safe haven currency – or transferred the money abroad, which weakened the rupee to level never witnessed before in its history.

However, it was the PTI government which initially pushed ahead with the currency devaluation as its policy statement while accusing Dar of keeping the rupee strong artificially.

Meanwhile, the IMF’s insistence on expanding the tax net and enhance revenue collection mean black market or informal sectors will slowly become less profitable as a result of documentation of economy.

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It is going to help Pakistan attract more and more people for investing in stocks, as the country currently has one of the worst ratio of population in the world when it comes of the investment in the shares market.

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ADB okays $180m for water supply, solid waste management in Rawalpindi and Bahawalpur

ADB okays $180m for water supply, solid waste management in Rawalpindi and Bahawalpur

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ADB okays $180m for water supply, solid waste management in Rawalpindi and Bahawalpur

The Asian Development Bank (ADB) has approved a loan of $180 million to improve water supply and solid waste management in Punjab, as the urban centres in Pakistan lack infrastructure to deal with the population influx.

Rawalpindi and Bahawalpur are the two cities selected for these funded projects, as the Bangkok-based financial institution says the funds would help improving the lives of 1.5 million people.

The details show that the funds would be utilised for expanding and modernising the water supply scheme in Rawalpindi and improving solid waste management system in Bahawalpur.

Rawalpindi – the ever expanding urban centre especially due to the arrival of large number of people from Khyber Pakhtunkhwa – is one those cities in Punjab where the underground water is the main source of supply by using tube-wells.

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Thus, it is not a surprise that the water table is going down at an alarming rate with a worsening quality, causing serious health problems and diseases, as the pipelines are affected by erosion.

Moreover, the adverse effects of climate change leading to reduce amount of the rains mean that used water resources are not replenished with Pakistan already facing the challenge of water scarcity.

On the other hand, absence of solid waste management and recycling services are also causing a plethora of problems – from choking sewerage system to pollution and other health hazards.

About the overall urban development projects in Punjab, the ADB website says the Pakistan government has requested support from the ADB to plan investments and design service delivery models for selected cities which include Bahawalpur, Dera Ghazi Khan, Multan, Muzaffargarh, Rahim Yar Khan, Rawalpindi, and Sargodha.

“The project readiness financing (PRF) will complement ADB’s assistance to the urban development in Pakistan, including a transaction technical assistance facility designed to support feasibility studies and explore innovations to improve the quality of urban services.”

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Lack of public transport amid population bomb? India vehicle sales climb 19pc in festive season

Lack of public transport amid population bomb? India vehicle sales climb 19pc in festive season

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Lack of public transport amid population bomb? India vehicle sales climb 19pc in festive season

Vehicle sales in India rose 19 per cent during a 42-day festive season, boosted mainly by strong demand for two wheelers in rural areas, an auto dealers’ body said on Tuesday.
Indians generally make big-ticket purchases on items like vehicles during the festive season, which kicked off in mid-October this year and ran till Nov 25.

The latest figures come as an earlier report mentioned that India and Pakistan have witnessed a fourfold increase in the number of vehicles since 2000, as South Asia remains the global pollution hotspot.

Moreover, this rise also reflects a fact that the two countries lack an effective public transport system to serve the urban centres as the massive rural population has no such access to the service which many believe is a human right in today’s age.

However, India has been making giant strides when it comes to mass transit network in different cities across the country while the process started in Pakistan by the PML-N in 2012 was not only halted but reversed and discouraged by the PTI government at the cost of people.

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The result can be seen in the number of cars, bikes and Chingchis – the noise-making machines – on our roads where commuting between your home and workplace has become a major headache and expansive exercise amid the current cost-of-living crisis triggered and sustained by a record-high inflation

Meanwhile, the Federation of Automobile Dealers Associations (FADA) data showed that two-wheeler sales in India surged about 21pc in the period to 2.9 million units,

“Record-breaking sales were reported in several categories, with rural areas particularly contributing to the surge in two-wheeler purchases,” FADA, which provides monthly data on dealer sales, said in a statement.

Two-wheeler makers’ sakes to dealers inched closer to pre-pandemic volumes in October due to strong festive demand and discounts on entry-level models, data showed earlier this month.

Sales of three wheelers advanced 41pc, while those of passenger vehicles (PVs) climbed around 10pc to 547,246 units, FADA added.

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“Tractors, which saw an 8.3pc decrease in sales during Navratri, made a remarkable recovery, ending the festive period with only a 0.5pc decrease,” FADA said.

Tractor sales, a key indicator of rural economy, slipped 0.4pc following a 10pc fall in September.

Caution remains around PV inventories as original equipment manufacturers continue to push further dispatch, keeping inventory rate at near all-time highs, FADA said, adding that sport utility vehicles (SUVs) were the most-demanded. 

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