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‘Unbridled’ dollar closes at historic high of Rs262.60 in interbank

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'Unbridled' dollar closes at historic high of Rs262.60 in interbank

The US dollar continued its upward momentum in the local currency markets on Friday as the greeback touched Rs262.60 in the interbank and Rs265 in the open market, 

The dollar surged by Rs7.17 to reach Rs262.60 in the interbank trade, the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP). The local currency depreciated 2.73 against the greenback. The PKR was closed at Rs255.43 on Thursday. 

Economic experts and business community fear that extraordinary weakening of the Pakisni rupee since yesterday will not only trigger inflationary pressures in the consumer markets, but also multiply the cost of loans. 

There were reports that the weakening of the local currency has jacked up the cost of loans up to Rs3,950 billion.

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The dollar has gained Rs30.11 in the interbank market since Thursday as forex companies removed a cap on the exchange rate.

According to Reuters, The Pakistani rupee fell 9.6% against the dollar on Thursday, central bank data showed – the biggest one-day drop in over two decades – in a slump that may persuade the International Monetary Fund to resume lending to the country.

The drop comes a day after foreign exchange companies removed a cap on the exchange rate, a key demand of the IMF as part of a programme of economic reforms it has agreed on with the cash-strapped South Asian nation.

The currency s official value closed at 255.4 rupees against the dollar versus 230.9 on Wednesday, the central bank said.

Facing an acute balance of payments crisis, Pakistan is desperate to secure external financing, with less than three weeks  worth of import cover in its foreign exchange reserves, which fell $923 million to $3.68 billion in the latest data.

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Pakistan secured a $6 billion IMF bailout in 2019. It was topped up with another $1 billion last year to help the country following devastating floods, but the IMF then suspended disbursements in November due to Pakistan s failure to make more progress on fiscal consolidation.

The lender announced on Thursday that it was sending a mission to the country at the end of January to discuss resuming the programme.

Aside from wanting the government to take fiscal measures, the IMF is pushing for it to move to a market-determined exchange rate regime, which the IMF highlighted in its statement on Thursday.

— Artificial distrotions —

The foreign exchange companies said on Wednesday that they had removed the cap for the sake of the country, because it was causing “artificial” distortions for the economy.

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Wednesday s move by foreign currency dealers, whose open market rates are different from the rate notified by the central bank, had a cascade effect on official exchange rates on Thursday.

The drop in the official rate was the biggest since 1999 in both absolute and percentage terms, according to JS Global, a Pakistani brokerage house.

In the open market, the rupee weakened from 243 rupees to the dollar to 262, a drop of about 7%, having lost 1.2% the previous day, according to the Exchange Companies Association of Pakistan (ECAP) trade data.

“We requested the central bank to increase the interbank (rate) to help combat the black market,” ECAP President Malik Bostan told Reuters.

The State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) and the finance ministry did not respond to a Reuters request for comment.

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Attempts by Finance Minister Ishaq Dar to defend the rupee since his appointment in September, including reported currency market interventions, had run counter to the IMF s advice.

— Positive response — 

The Pakistan Stock Exchange, however, reacted positively to the rupee s fall, with the KSE 100 index shooting up more than 1,000 points, or 2.5%.

“The depreciation in the rupee takes away some uncertainty regarding the economic roadmap ahead and resumption of the IMF programme, which the market is responding positively to,” Tahir Abbass, Head of Research at Arif Habib Limited, said.

Topline Securities, a Karachi-based brokerage house, said the sharp fall in foreign exchange reserves from $8 billion in September to $4.6 billion as of Jan. 13 led to a widening in the spread between the official and open market rates, and created a black market for dollars due to the low supply.

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The sudden drop in rates hit banks hard. According to two officials in commercial banks operating in Pakistan, banks that had earlier borrowed at 230 rupees to the dollar to make payments by running open positions now have to settle payments at a rate of 250 rupees.

The officials told Reuters on condition of anonymity that banks that were hit the hardest are those that did not have adequate dollar inflows.

— Decades-high inflation —

While the move increases the chances of a restart in IMF funding, Pakistan is also reeling from decades-high inflation, which economists fear will now get worse. Most of Pakistan s critical imports, including fuel, are paid for in dollars.

“It will give a significant impetus to already elevated price pressures in the economy,” said Sakib Sherani, a Pakistani macroeconomist, adding that consumer price index (CPI) numbers are heading to levels previously unseen in the country.

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In the first half of the current financial year, which ends in June, average inflation has been 25%. The central bank is also tightening monetary policy sharply, with key rates also at decades-high levels and growth having come to a grinding halt.

The ensuing economic crisis will also pile political pressure on the government, with former prime minister Imran Khan demanding a snap general election.

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Stocks on steroids, as FDI prospects help KSE-100 Index jump over 60,000 hurdle

Stocks on steroids, as FDI prospects help KSE-100 Index jump over 60,000 hurdle

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Stocks on steroids, as FDI prospects help KSE-100 Index jump over 60,000 hurdle

The Pakistan Stock Exchange made another history as soon as the traders hit the floor on Tuesday as the benchmark KSE-100 Index achieved another landmark by crossing the 60,000 barrier, after Pakistan and the United Arab Emirates signed multiple memorandums of understandings (MoUs) a day earlier.

Pakistan and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) signed several multi-billion dollar MoUs in a range of areas on Monday to boost economic and strategic cooperation between the two countries, Caretaker Prime Minister Anwaarul Haq Kakar said in a video message.

The prime minister, who is on visit to the UAE, said the bilateral economic and strategic relations had entered into new era of bilateral cooperation with the signing of the MoUs.

By 10:59am, the KSE-100 Index was recorded at 60,659.14 against the previous closing of 59,811.34, representing a gain of 847.80 points, or 1.42 per cent.

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There are a number of factors contributing to the ongoing surge in stocks but the foreign currency inflow will be the major boost. The foreign direct investment (FDI) will not only revive the economy by expanding the existing businesses but also creating ones while providing the much-needed job opportunities to the people who are hit hard by the prevailing cost-of-ling crisis sustained by the record-high inflation.

At the same time, the FDI will enhance the share prices of listed companies especially in energy and related sectors – an eagerly awaited trend already being witnessed in the market after years of undervalued status.

Currently at 22pc, the interest rates, the highest in Pakistan’s history, have crippled the economy amid the rising cost of doing of doing business, as the investors either opted to take refuge in the US dollar – the safe haven currency – or transferred the money abroad, which weakened the rupee to level never witnessed before in its history.

However, it was the PTI government which initially pushed ahead with the currency devaluation as its policy statement while accusing Dar of keeping the rupee strong artificially.

Meanwhile, the IMF’s insistence on expanding the tax net and enhance revenue collection mean black market or informal sectors will slowly become less profitable as a result of documentation of economy.

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It is going to help Pakistan attract more and more people for investing in stocks, as the country currently has one of the worst ratio of population in the world when it comes of the investment in the shares market.

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ADB okays $180m for water supply, solid waste management in Rawalpindi and Bahawalpur

ADB okays $180m for water supply, solid waste management in Rawalpindi and Bahawalpur

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ADB okays $180m for water supply, solid waste management in Rawalpindi and Bahawalpur

The Asian Development Bank (ADB) has approved a loan of $180 million to improve water supply and solid waste management in Punjab, as the urban centres in Pakistan lack infrastructure to deal with the population influx.

Rawalpindi and Bahawalpur are the two cities selected for these funded projects, as the Bangkok-based financial institution says the funds would help improving the lives of 1.5 million people.

The details show that the funds would be utilised for expanding and modernising the water supply scheme in Rawalpindi and improving solid waste management system in Bahawalpur.

Rawalpindi – the ever expanding urban centre especially due to the arrival of large number of people from Khyber Pakhtunkhwa – is one those cities in Punjab where the underground water is the main source of supply by using tube-wells.

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Thus, it is not a surprise that the water table is going down at an alarming rate with a worsening quality, causing serious health problems and diseases, as the pipelines are affected by erosion.

Moreover, the adverse effects of climate change leading to reduce amount of the rains mean that used water resources are not replenished with Pakistan already facing the challenge of water scarcity.

On the other hand, absence of solid waste management and recycling services are also causing a plethora of problems – from choking sewerage system to pollution and other health hazards.

About the overall urban development projects in Punjab, the ADB website says the Pakistan government has requested support from the ADB to plan investments and design service delivery models for selected cities which include Bahawalpur, Dera Ghazi Khan, Multan, Muzaffargarh, Rahim Yar Khan, Rawalpindi, and Sargodha.

“The project readiness financing (PRF) will complement ADB’s assistance to the urban development in Pakistan, including a transaction technical assistance facility designed to support feasibility studies and explore innovations to improve the quality of urban services.”

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Lack of public transport amid population bomb? India vehicle sales climb 19pc in festive season

Lack of public transport amid population bomb? India vehicle sales climb 19pc in festive season

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Lack of public transport amid population bomb? India vehicle sales climb 19pc in festive season

Vehicle sales in India rose 19 per cent during a 42-day festive season, boosted mainly by strong demand for two wheelers in rural areas, an auto dealers’ body said on Tuesday.
Indians generally make big-ticket purchases on items like vehicles during the festive season, which kicked off in mid-October this year and ran till Nov 25.

The latest figures come as an earlier report mentioned that India and Pakistan have witnessed a fourfold increase in the number of vehicles since 2000, as South Asia remains the global pollution hotspot.

Moreover, this rise also reflects a fact that the two countries lack an effective public transport system to serve the urban centres as the massive rural population has no such access to the service which many believe is a human right in today’s age.

However, India has been making giant strides when it comes to mass transit network in different cities across the country while the process started in Pakistan by the PML-N in 2012 was not only halted but reversed and discouraged by the PTI government at the cost of people.

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The result can be seen in the number of cars, bikes and Chingchis – the noise-making machines – on our roads where commuting between your home and workplace has become a major headache and expansive exercise amid the current cost-of-living crisis triggered and sustained by a record-high inflation

Meanwhile, the Federation of Automobile Dealers Associations (FADA) data showed that two-wheeler sales in India surged about 21pc in the period to 2.9 million units,

“Record-breaking sales were reported in several categories, with rural areas particularly contributing to the surge in two-wheeler purchases,” FADA, which provides monthly data on dealer sales, said in a statement.

Two-wheeler makers’ sakes to dealers inched closer to pre-pandemic volumes in October due to strong festive demand and discounts on entry-level models, data showed earlier this month.

Sales of three wheelers advanced 41pc, while those of passenger vehicles (PVs) climbed around 10pc to 547,246 units, FADA added.

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“Tractors, which saw an 8.3pc decrease in sales during Navratri, made a remarkable recovery, ending the festive period with only a 0.5pc decrease,” FADA said.

Tractor sales, a key indicator of rural economy, slipped 0.4pc following a 10pc fall in September.

Caution remains around PV inventories as original equipment manufacturers continue to push further dispatch, keeping inventory rate at near all-time highs, FADA said, adding that sport utility vehicles (SUVs) were the most-demanded. 

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