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Ukraine one year on: the specter of nuclear war

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Ukraine one year on: the specter of nuclear war

 For decades, children in the United States and the Soviet Union were drilled on what to do in a nuclear war. One year after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, could the danger have returned for new generations?

Within days of Moscow’s attack, President Vladimir Putin ordered the mobilization of Russian nuclear forces, stunning the world.

Washington bashed such talk as “dangerous” and “irresponsible,” and warned Moscow of “catastrophic consequences.”

But Moscow kept up its threats, giving rise to deep worries that Putin was willing to start a nuclear exchange that could trigger an all-out apocalypse.

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“We have not seen a public announcement from the Russians regarding a heightened nuclear alert status since the 1960s,” said Avril Haines, US Director of National Intelligence.

And President Joe Biden warned that the world risked nuclear destruction for the first time since the Cuban Missile Crisis of 1962.

Seconds to midnight

Russian officials sought to clarify their stance, saying the country would only use nuclear weapons if it were facing an “existential threat.”

But in September, when Putin declared the annexation of four Ukraine regions, the question was: would attacking them amount to an “existential threat” to Russia?

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Though there was no sign of Russian nuclear mobilization, in January, the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists moved their “Doomsday Clock” forward to just 90 seconds to midnight, signaling their view that the destruction of humanity was closer than ever.

“Russia’s thinly veiled threats to use nuclear weapons remind the world that escalation of the conflict — by accident, intention, or miscalculation — is a terrible risk,” the Bulletin said.

Arms control failing

The threat has returned not only because Russia invaded Ukraine. The US-USSR arms control pacts that eased the tensions of the Cold War are dead or broken.

The crucial 1972 Anti-Ballistic Missile Treaty collapsed in 2002.

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In 2019 the United States pulled out of the INF treaty, which limited medium-range nuclear-capable missiles, saying Russia was violating its commitments.

And over the past year the 2011 New Start Treaty between the United States and Russia limiting nuclear warheads has frayed, Washington again accusing Moscow of not complying.

– Nukes ‘don’t give you security’-

But ironically, said Pavel Podvig, a senior researcher at the UN Institute for Disarmament Research, Russia’s threats may have made the world a little safer, by reminding new generations of the unthinkable danger of atomic armageddon.

For one, he said, Russia may have calculated that it could start and quickly finish the war on Ukraine because it had nuclear weapons.

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Instead, it collided with nuclear-armed NATO’s support for Ukraine.

The conflict may even have helped make the case that nuclear weapons are “obsolete”, said Podvig, as Russia may have found that “they don’t give you security.”

Global pushback

Second, Podvig said, is the pushback from world leaders, including Russia’s friends India and China, over Moscow’s nuclear talk, helping to bolster a sense that nuclear threats are taboo.

In September Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi raised concerns about the nuclear talk with Putin.

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In November the G20 declared at the end of its summit in Bali — where Russia took part — that the use or threat of use of nuclear weapons is “inadmissible.”

Even more important, said Podvig, was the joint statement by Biden and Chinese leader Xi Jinping at the Bali venue.

Biden and Xi agreed “that a nuclear war should never be fought and can never be won and underscored their opposition to the use or threat of use of nuclear weapons in Ukraine,” their statement said.

Washington has toned down its own talk, refraining from repeating its warning of “catastrophic consequences” for nuclear use.

“It turns out that people don’t really like when states talk like that,” said Podvig, adding people are again “acutely clear of the danger of a nuclear war.”

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Rahul Gandhi: India’s Congress leader sentenced to jail for Modi ‘thieves’ remark

Rahul Gandhi: India’s Congress leader sentenced to jail for Modi ‘thieves’ remark

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Rahul Gandhi: India's Congress leader sentenced to jail for Modi 'thieves' remark

Indian opposition leader Rahul Gandhi has been sentenced to two years in prison in a criminal defamation case.

Mr Gandhi was convicted by the court in Gujarat state for 2019 comments about Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s surname during an election rally.

He will not go to jail immediately – he was granted bail for 30 days and will file an appeal against the conviction.

The Congress party MP was present in court for sentencing, which comes a year before general elections are due.

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Speaking at an election rally in Karnataka state in April 2019, ahead of the last general election, Mr Gandhi had said: “Why do all these thieves have Modi as their surname? Nirav Modi, Lalit Modi, Narendra Modi.”

Nirav Modi is a fugitive Indian diamond tycoon while Lalit Modi is a former chief of the Indian Premier League who has been banned for life by the country’s cricket board. Mr Gandhi argued that he had made the comment to highlight corruption and it was not directed against any community.

The case against him was filed on the basis of a complaint by Purnesh Modi, a lawmaker from India’s governing Bharatiya Janata Party, who said that Mr Gandhi’s comments had defamed the entire Modi community.

But some have said they are puzzled by the order.

Legal scholar Gautam Bhatia tweeted that “references to a generic class of persons” – surnames in this case – are not “actionable unless an individual can show a direct reference to themselves”.

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“If a man says ‘all lawyers are thieves’, then I, as a lawyer, cannot file a case against him for defamation unless I can show its imputation aimed at me,” Mr Bhatia said.

India’s criminal defamation law is British-era legislation under which there can be a maximum prison sentence of two years, a fine or both.

Free speech advocates have often argued that the law goes against the principles of freedom and that it is is used by politicians to silence their critics.

In 2016, some top Indian politicians including Mr Gandhi filed legal pleas arguing for defamation to be decriminalised. But India’s Supreme Court upheld the validity of the law, saying that the “right to free speech cannot mean that a citizen can defame the other”.

The Congress party tweeted that Mr Gandhi would appeal and said “we will fight and win”.

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Mr Gandhi has not commented publicly yet but has tweeted a quote in Hindi from India’s independence leader Mahatma Gandhi: “My religion is based on truth and non-violence. Truth is my God, and non-violence the means to get it.”

His lawyer, Kirit Panwala, told BBC Gujarati that Mr Gandhi had told the judge after the order that he had made the speech “in favour of democracy”.

He also said that their defence of Mr Gandhi was based on four points: “Firstly, Mr Gandhi is not a resident of Gujarat and so, before the complaint, an inquiry should be conducted. Secondly, there is no community named Modi. Thirdly, there is no association of people with Modi as their surname and lastly, there was no ill intention behind Mr Gandhi’s speech.”

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Lebanese security forces fire tear gas at crowds protesting pound devaluation

Lebanese security forces fire tear gas at crowds protesting pound devaluation

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Lebanese security forces fire tear gas at crowds protesting pound devaluation

Lebanese security forces on Wednesday fired tear gas at hundreds of protesters, mostly retired members of the security forces, who had gathered near government buildings in Beirut in anger at deteriorating economic conditions.

Crowds gathered in the streets of downtown Beirut between parliament and the government serail, carrying Lebanon’s tricolour or flags bearing the logos of security forces.

They were outraged at the deteriorating value of state pensions paid in the local currency. The pound has lost more than 98% of its value against the U.S. dollar since 2019.

“Our kids are hungry. We’re hungry,” said Mohamad el-Khateeb, a 59-year-old who had served in the army for 32 years.

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“We left the army with nothing. No healthcare, no welfare, our kids are out of school and prices are rising obscenely. What do you expect?” Khateeb told Reuters.

Some of the men tried to cross one of the checkpoints leading to a government building, prompting security forces to fire tear gas to keep them back, according to a Reuters witness.

Protesters dashed away from white clouds emanating from locations around the serail. One soldier was seen treating a young boy who was affected by the tear gas.

“If he fires on us, he’s firing on our rights and on his rights at the same time,” said army veteran Ahmad Mustafa, 60.

“He’s suffering just like me,” he told Reuters, clutching two of the tear gas canisters fired just moments earlier.

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There was no immediate statement from the Lebanese army.
Lebanon’s economic meltdown began in 2019 after decades of profligate spending and alleged corruption. Its onset prompted the most wide-ranging protests the country had seen in years, but they fizzled out and rallies have been sporadic since.

The country’s top financial and political leaders have allowed the crisis to fester, with the Lebanese pound hitting an all-time low of 140,000 to the U.S. dollar on Tuesday before an intervention by the country’s central bank.

Lebanon’s army troops and members of the security forces are receiving salary support in U.S. dollars from the United States and Qatar for the first time.

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Four killed in Russian drone strike on Kyiv region, officials say

Four killed in Russian drone strike on Kyiv region, officials say

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Four killed in Russian drone strike on Kyiv region, officials say

 At least four people were killed early on Wednesday in a Russian drone strike near Kyiv which Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said showed Moscow was not interested in peace.

The State Emergency Service said on the Telegram messaging app that two dormitories and an educational facility in Rzhyshchiv, 40 miles (64 km) south of the capital, had been partially destroyed in the overnight attack.

Regional police chief Andrii Nebytov said 20 people had been taken to hospital and several were still missing following a series of explosions after 3 a.m. (0100 GMT) that killed four people.

A large part of the top floor of a five-storey dormitory building had been knocked out by the attack. Workers in white helmets and reflective jackets clambered through the rubble of another badly damaged building.

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“We see that the enemy has once again attacked civilian infrastructure (and) innocent people have died,” Nebytov wrote on Telegram, adding that one of the victims was an ambulance driver who had arrived to help.

State emergency officials said the search for survivors was continuing after attacks that the Ukrainian military said involved Iranian-made Shahed drones.

“Over 20 Iranian murderous drones, plus missiles, numerous shelling incidents, and that’s just in one last night of Russian terror against Ukraine,” Zelenskiy wrote on Twitter.

“Every time someone tries to hear the word ‘peace’ in Moscow, another order is given there for such criminal strikes.”

The Ukrainian military said it had shot down 16 of the 21 drones launched at Ukraine overnight from the north.

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Russia, which invaded Ukraine 13 months ago, did not immediately comment on the latest attacks.

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