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Oil rises on China optimism, market shrugs off US inventory build

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Oil rises on China optimism, market shrugs off US inventory build

 Oil prices rose on Thursday as hopes of a robust fuel demand recovery in top oil consumer China offset losses arising from strength in the greenback and a large build in U.S. crude inventory.

Brent crude futures rose 42 cents, or 0.5%, to $85.80 per barrel by 0352 GMT, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures gained 48 cents, or 0.6% to $79.07 a barrel.

The International Energy Agency (IEA) said that oil demand will rise by 2 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2023, up 100,000 bpd from last month’s forecast to a record 101.9 million bpd, with China making up 900,000 bpd of the increase.

China will account for almost half of 2023 oil demand growth after relaxing its COVID-19 curbs, the Paris-based agency said. read more

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The U.S. dollar , which generally moves inversely with crude prices, surged on the back of bullish U.S. retail sales data and clung to most of those gains on Thursday.

“On China, OPEC and the IEA’s optimistic outlook helped. The net upward thrust countered the weight of the huge U.S. oil stock-build, but I don’t see much more headroom just yet,” said Vandana Hari, founder of oil market analysis provider Vanda Insights.

U.S. crude oil stocks soared last week by 16.3 million barrels to 471.4 million barrels, the highest level since June 2021, the Energy Information Administration (EIA) said. The larger-than-expected build was largely due a data adjustment, which analysts said muted the impact to oil prices.

“Oil prices are expected to swing in a narrow range, caught between the divergent demand-supply dynamics,” said independent market expert Sugandha Sachdeva.

“While the steadily rising U.S. production and swelling inventories combined with a broad recovery in the U.S. dollar are acting as a headwind for oil prices, still the narrative of strong demand revival from China and prospects of Russia-linked output cuts is jacking up oil prices,” Sachdeva added.

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Around 1 million bpd of oil production will be shut by the end of the first quarter, the IEA said, following the European ban on seaborne imports and international price cap sanctions.

Analysts at Commonwealth Bank pointed out in a note that OPEC+ will not look to boost output to compensate for lower Russian output.

That means the onus will be on the United States and other non-OPEC producers to boost output not only to make up for lower Russian output, but also to meet any incremental increase in global oil demand, the note added. 

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Nepra approves Rs3.28 per unit increase in power tariff

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Nepra approves Rs3.28 per unit increase in power tariff

The National Electric Power Regulatory Authority (Nepra) has approved Rs3.28 per unit increase in power tariff on the account of fuel cost adjustment for fourth quarter of fiscal year 2022-23.

The regulatory body has sent his decision to the federal government for final approval. The increase in electricity prices will come into effect immediately after it is approved by the government.

The distribution companies (Discos) would recover Rs159 billion from consumers during the period of six months (October 2023 to March 2024).

The revised rate will be applicable on all customers.

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Inflation goes up as people feel effects of fuel price hikes

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Inflation goes up as people feel effects of fuel price hikes

Food and fuel prices continue fuelling inflation in Pakistan as the Sensitive Price Indicator (SPI) for the week ended September 21 witnessed a 0.93 per increase amid the complete government failure to check the rates.

Read more: Food prices owing to weaker rupee, supply shortages will push Pakistan inflation: ADB

The latest data released by the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS) shows that chicken price had jumped by 8.49pc followed by petrol 8.51pc, diesel 5.54pc garlic 5.19pc and onion 3.02pc.

At the same time, the year-on-year increase in SPI stood at 38.66pc when compared with the corresponding week of last year.

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Read more: More food inflation as fuel price hikes increase production, transportation costs

The rising inflation in Pakistan urgently needs government intervention and a study of how different governments are dealing with the challenge. Tax on cut on food items is one of methods.

Read more: Fighting the food inflation: From net-zero VAT to supermarkets seeking price cuts

Earlier this week, the Asian Development Bank (ADB) had warned that average inflation in Pakistan will soar to 29.2 per cent caused by supply shortages, continued currency depreciation, import restrictions, and fiscal stimulus for post-pandemic recovery.

Meanwhile, the rising food prices shouldn’t be a surprise given that the regular fuel price hikes are increasing the production and transportation costs.

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The main reason behind the persistent inflation in Pakistan is devaluation as the rupee had dropped to the record against the US dollar – a trend that is being reversed somewhat amid a crackdown on blacking marketers on hoarders.

However, the exchange rate is still too high, requiring further correction, as the people have also been hit hard for power and gas tariffs as the conditions set by the International Monetary Fund (IMF).
 

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Power tariff hikes: The more you devalue rupee, the more capacity charges you pay

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Power tariff hikes: The more you devalue rupee, the more capacity charges you pay

Devaluation – a process that started under former finance minister Miftah Ismail in late 2017 and late 2018 but gained momentum under the PTI government – is the root cause of inflation shouldn’t be a contested statement as it has made imports even more expensive for Pakistan.

And that’s countries like Pakistan are the worst affected due the rising commodities prices in global market as weaker currencies mean the overall impact is much deeper for them than the rest.

Read more: Rupee collapse is the reason behind all ills Pakistan is facing

This argument was endorsed by none other a high-ranking government official – Power Division Secretary Rashid Langrial who said on Monday that the capacity [charges] payment had doubled after the dollar exchange rate increased from Rs100 to Rs300, thus resulting in skyrocketing electricity tariffs for consumers. 

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