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What is China’s game plan in Ukraine?

What is China’s game plan in Ukraine?

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What is China's game plan in Ukraine?

China is playing an increasingly prominent role on the sidelines of Russia’s war in Ukraine as the conflict drags on into its second year. 

From a “position paper” on resolving the war to allegations that Beijing may be mulling arms to Russia and meeting with close Moscow allies, here is a rundown of China’s growing say in the conflict:

Arms to Russia?

For much of the war, China has framed itself as a neutral party, while retaining close ties with Russia.

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Chinese state-controlled firms have sold non-lethal drones and other equipment to both Russia and Ukraine, forcing Moscow to turn to Iran for armaments.

Washington believes that might be about to change, however, with Secretary of State Antony Blinken saying last month that China is “considering providing lethal support” to Russia.

Beijing swiftly denied the claims, accusing the United States of “fanning the flames” of the war with massive arms shipments to the Ukrainian government.

The United States is yet to provide concrete evidence that China is mulling sending arms to Russia, but experts have told AFP there is some credence to the claims — and that Beijing entering the conflict could be a “game changer”.

Position paper

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China has over the last year faced mounting calls from the West to condemn Russia’s war in Ukraine.

Seeking to portray itself as a mediator, Beijing last week unveiled a 12-point paper to bring peace, which included respecting all countries’ territorial sovereignty.

Timed to coincide with the first anniversary of Russia’s invasion of its neighbour, the document urged all parties to “support Russia and Ukraine in working in the same direction and resuming direct dialogue as quickly as possible”.

But the paper, while praised by the United Nations and Russia, was immediately met by scepticism from Ukraine’s allies, with NATO chief Jens Stoltenberg saying Beijing “doesn’t have much credibility because they have not been able to condemn the illegal invasion of Ukraine”.

And Bonnie Glaser, director of the Asia Program at the German Marshall Fund, told AFP that the document “was largely a summary of China’s statements over the past year”.

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“Beijing still claims NATO is the cause of the war and refused to condemn Russia’s invasion. This is old wine in a semi-new bottle,” said Glaser.

Meeting Putin’s friends

As Beijing talks up its neutral stance, China’s President Xi Jinping this week meets with Belarusian counterpart Alexander Lukashenko.

As one of Putin’s few reliable foreign partners, Lukashenko could provide Beijing with updated insight into the developing situation in Ukraine, potentially influencing Chinese strategy on the issue.

Economic ties between Belarus and China had been steadily strengthening until the pandemic and Russia’s invasion caused widespread disruption to supply chains and the global economy.

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Belarus was used by Russia as a military staging ground for its full-scale assault on Ukraine last February, initiating a prolonged conflict.

Xi and Lukashenko formally declared their countries to be “all-weather, comprehensive partners” last September, and the Belarusian leader’s visit to Beijing is likely intended to return bilateral ties to their pre-2020 trajectory.

Talks with Zelensky?

On the first anniversary of Russia’s invasion, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky expressed a desire to meet with Xi to discuss Beijing’s proposals to resolve the crisis.

“I really want to believe that China will not supply weapons to Russia,” Zelensky said.

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The Chinese foreign ministry has not yet provided details on a potential meeting between the two sides, maintaining repeatedly that they “keep close communications with relevant parties”.

Zelensky welcomed China’s 12-point paper, a position echoed by the Russian foreign ministry, which said it “shares Beijing’s views”.

The Ukrainian president would likely use a meeting to urge Beijing to wield its leverage on Russia and take meaningful steps towards resolving the conflict.

But so far China has shown no sign of such intentions, Elizabeth Wishnick, Senior Research Scholar at Columbia’s Weatherhead East Asian Institute, told AFP.

“To the contrary, (President Xi) is considering a visit to Moscow and continues to parrot Russian propaganda on the US and NATO responsibility for the war,” said Wishnick.

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Russia persists in blaming Ukraine for concert attack despite its denial and Islamic State’s claim

Russia persists in blaming Ukraine for concert attack despite its denial and Islamic State’s claim

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Russia persists in blaming Ukraine for concert attack despite its denial and Islamic State's claim

Russian officials persisted Tuesday in saying Ukraine and the West had a role in last week’s deadly Moscow concert hall attack despite vehement denials of involvement by Kyiv and a claim of responsibility by an affiliate of the Islamic State group.

Without offering any evidence, Alexander Bortnikov, head of the Federal Security Service, or FSB, followed similar allegations by President Vladimir Putin, who linked the attack to Ukraine even as he acknowledged that the suspects who were arrested were “radical Islamists.”

The IS affiliate claimed it carried out the attack, and U.S. intelligence said it had information confirming the group was responsible. French President Emmanuel Macron said France also has intelligence pointing to “an IS entity” as responsible for the attack.

But despite the signs pointing to IS, Putin insisted on alleged Ukrainian involvement — something that President Volodymyr Zelenskyy rejected, accusing the Kremlin leader of trying to drum up fervor as his forces fight in Ukraine.

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Bortnikov alleged that Western spy agencies also could have been involved in the deadliest terror attack on Russian soil in two decades, even as he acknowledged receiving a U.S. tip about the attack.

“We believe that radical Islamists prepared the action, while Western special services have assisted it and Ukrainian special services had a direct part in it,” Bortnikov said without giving details.

He repeated Putin’s claim that the four gunmen were trying to escape to Ukraine when they were arrested. casting it as a proof of alleged involvement by Kyiv.

But that assertion was undercut slightly by Belarus’ authoritarian President Alexander Lukashenko. who said Tuesday the suspects were headed for Ukraine because they feared tight controls on the Belarus border.

Russia is still reeling from the attack Friday in which gunmen killed 139 people in the Crocus City Hall, a concert venue on the outskirts of Moscow. Health officials said about 90 people remain hospitalized, with 22 of them, including two children, in grave condition.

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The four men accused of carrying out the attack appeared in a Moscow court on Sunday on terrorism charges and showed signs of severe beatings. One appeared to be barely conscious during the hearing.

The men are citizens of Tajikistan, authorities said, and were identified as Dalerdzhon Mirzoyev, 32; Saidakrami Rachabalizoda, 30; Shamsidin Fariduni, 25; and Mukhammadsobir Faizov, 19. They were charged with committing a terrorist attack resulting in death, which carries a maximum sentence of life imprisonment.

A senior Turkish security official confirmed Tuesday that two of them spent a “short amount of time” in Turkey before traveling together to Russia on March 2.

One of the suspects, Fariduni, entered Turkey on Feb. 20, checked into a hotel in Istanbul’s Fatih district the next day, and checked out Feb. 27, the official said. The other, Rachabalizoda, checked into a hotel in the same district on Jan. 5, checking out on Jan. 21.

The official said Turkish authorities believe the two “became radicalized in Russia” because they were not in Turkey for long. There was no warrant for their arrest so they were allowed to travel freely between Russia and Turkey, the official said, speaking on condition of anonymity because he was not authorized to make public statements.

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The Islamic State group, which lost much of its ground after Russia’s military action in Syria, has long targeted Russia. In October 2015, a bomb planted by IS downed a Russian jetliner over the Sinai desert, killing all 224 people aboard, most of them Russian vacationers returning from Egypt.

The group, which operates mainly in Syria and Iraq but also in Afghanistan and Africa, also has claimed several attacks in Russia’s volatile Caucasus and other regions in the past years. It recruited fighters from Russia and other parts of the former Soviet Union.

On Monday, Putin warned that more attacks could follow, alleging possible Western involvement. He didn’t mention the warning about a possible imminent terrorist attack that the U.S. shared confidentially with Moscow two weeks before the raid.

Three days before the attack, Putin denounced the U.S. Embassy’s March 7 notice urging Americans to avoid crowds in Moscow, including concerts, calling it an attempt to frighten Russians and “blackmail” the Kremlin ahead of the presidential election.

Bortnikov said Russia was thankful for the warning but described it as very general.

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“The information about preparations for terror attacks in large gatherings of people was of a general nature,” he said. “Of course, we reacted to that information and took corresponding measures to prevent such incidents.”

He added that the FSB acted on the tip, targeting a group of suspects he didn’t identify but which eventually proved false.

“We are thankful, of course, but we would like to see more specifics,” Bortnikov said.

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Israel asks US to reschedule scrapped meeting on Rafah offensive plans

Israel asks US to reschedule scrapped meeting on Rafah offensive plans

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Israel asks US to reschedule scrapped meeting on Rafah offensive plans

Israel has asked to reschedule a meeting with US officials to discuss its military plans in Gaza’s southern city of Rafah, a US official said on Wednesday, days after Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu abruptly scrapped the planned talks.

Netanyahu called off a planned visit to Washington by a senior Israeli delegation after the US allowed passage of a Gaza ceasefire resolution at the United Nations on Monday, in a move that appeared to reflect growing US frustration with the Israeli premier.

US officials said the Biden administration was perplexed by the Israeli cancellation and considered it an overreaction to the Security Council resolution, insisting there had been no change in policy.

On Wednesday, a US official said Netanyahu’s office “has said they’d like to reschedule the meeting dedicated to Rafah. We are now working with them to set a convenient date.”

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Netanyahu is considering sending a delegation for a White House meeting on Rafah as early as next week but the scheduling is still being worked out, an Israeli official in Washington told Reuters on condition of anonymity.

There was no immediate comment from the Israeli prime minister’s office.

The planned talks are expected to focus on Israel’s threatened offensive in Rafah, the last relatively safe haven for Palestinian civilians in Gaza.

The White House said last week it intended to share with Israeli officials alternatives for eliminating the Palestinian militant group Hamas without a ground offensive in Rafah that Washington says would be a “disaster.” 

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Ireland to sign up to EU migration pact

Ireland to sign up to EU migration pact

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Ireland to sign up to EU migration pact

 Ireland agreed on Wednesday to sign up to new EU rules designed to share the cost and work of hosting migrants and also launched a fresh bid to overhaul how it accommodates arrivals following protests around the country.

Immigration has shot up the political agenda in Ireland after more than 100,000 Ukrainian refugees – the largest number per capita in Western Europe – joined record numbers of asylum seekers in seeking shelter amid a crippling housing crisis.

The government said its decision to sign up the rules agreed by EU governments in December – where countries are assigned a share of arrivals with new expedited border procedure for those deemed unlikely to win asylum – would speed up its processes.

Ministers also laid out plans to deliver 14,000 state-owned beds by 2028 to accommodate asylum seekers in a bid to move away from its current “full reliance” on private providers which has led to a continuous scramble for accommodation and seen some arrivals pitch up tents on the street.

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The system will still be supplemented, as required, by commercial providers but ministers pledged to end the use of unsuitable accommodation options currently relied upon, such as the sole hotel remaining in a given town.

The removal of such services from many small towns has led to objections from locals and anti-migrant protestors.

The government, which has been unable to stop a continuous rise in record levels of homelessness, said it would boost the accommodation for asylum seekers through the use of modular units on state land, the purchase of properties, the building of new reception centres and the conversation of commercial buildings.

The plan replaces an undelivered 2021 strategy to house all applicants in state-run accommodation that was based on 3,500 new arrivals each year. Over 30,000 people have arrived in Ireland since January 2022 seeking international protection.

Prime Minister-in-waiting Simon Harris told reporters earlier on Wednesday that the plans were a step in the right direction towards the “firm but fair” system on migration he advocated in a speech on Sunday. 

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