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Can China broker peace between Russia and Ukraine?

Can China broker peace between Russia and Ukraine?

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Can China broker peace between Russia and Ukraine?

Chinese President Xi Jinping is expected to soon visit Russia’s Vladimir Putin and, according to media, hold a virtual meeting with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy weeks after China proposed a 12-point plan for peace in Ukraine.

China’s foreign ministry has said it is in communication with both sides and, while it has not confirmed Xi’s plan for talks with either Putin or Zelenskiy, there is speculation that China may try to get the rivals to the negotiating table.

Following are some of the issues China and others are likely to be taking into account as it considers prospects for peace in Ukraine.

WHY WOULD CHINA TRY TO MEDIATE?

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China has traditionally adhered to a principle of not interfering in other countries’ conflicts, especially the more distant ones.

But a peace deal struck in Beijing last week between Saudi Arabia and Iran highlights a Chinese aim to project itself as a responsible great power under Xi’s stewardship, analysts say.

“Xi would want to be seen on the global stage as a statesman whose influence at least equals that of the U.S. leader,” said Wang Jiangyu, a law professor at City University of Hong Kong.

China is also eager to deflect criticism that when it comes to Ukraine, it has sided with the aggressor, Russia, which calls its invasion in February last year a “special military operation”.

Attempting to broker peace is a low-cost venture that can yield high returns for China, even if a quick breakthrough is highly unlikely, analysts say.

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WHAT IS CHINA’S PROPOSAL FOR PEACE?

China urged both sides to agree to a gradual de-escalation leading to a comprehensive ceasefire in its 12-point paper on the “political resolution of the Ukraine crisis”.

While the plan called for the protection of civilians and that the sovereignty of all countries be respected, China has refrained from condemning Russia for its invasion.

The plan got lukewarm welcomes in both Russia and Ukraine while the United States and NATO were sceptical.

Ukraine, which says it will only consider peace settlements after Russian troops leave Ukrainian territory, took issue with the plan for not stating that Russia should withdraw behind borders in place since the Soviet Union collapsed in 1991, but later said it was open to “parts of the plan”.

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Russia said it would take a “nuanced study” of the plan but did not see any sign for a peaceful resolution for now.

The US said China presented itself publicly as neutral and seeking peace while at the same time reflected Russia’s “false narrative” about the war, provided it with non-lethal assistance and was considering lethal assistance. China denies that.

NATO said China did not have much credibility as a mediator on Ukraine.

WHAT ROLE COULD CHINA PLAY?

Analysts say it will be hard for China to get Russia and Ukraine to the negotiating table, unlike Saudi Arabia and Iran, which presented an easier diplomatic win.

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“Saudi Arabia and Iran actually want to talk and improve relations, while Russia and Ukraine don’t, at least for now,” said Yun Sun, director of the China Program at the Washington-based Stimson Center.

However, Xi could act as a backchannel, Yun said, which could start momentum towards talks that for now seem unlikely with both sides hardening their stances in the grinding war.

A fruitless attempt by NATO member Turkey to host dialogue in Istanbul in the weeks after the war began last year underscored the difficulty.

WHAT LEVERAGE DOES CHINA HAVE?

Some analysts say China is in a better position than Turkey to mediate because it has more leverage over Russia.

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China is Russia’s most important ally and has been buying Russian oil and provided a market for Russian goods shunned by Western countries.

China also has some leverage over Ukraine, which would not want to torpedo the chances of Chinese support for its reconstruction, said Samuel Ramani, a Russia expert at Oxford University.

China expanded trade with Ukraine after Russia invaded Crimea in 2014 and did not recognise the annexed territory as Russian, he said.

“Most importantly, Zelenskiy does not want to provoke China so much that they start arming Russia,” Ramani said.

CAN CHINA BE AN HONEST BROKER?

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China’s close ties with Russia mean its role will be viewed with deep scepticism. Days before Russia invaded Ukraine, China and Russia announced a “no-limits” partnership.

While China has called for peace since the beginning of the war, it has largely reflected the Russian position that NATO threatened Russia with its eastward expansion while Ukraine’s Western allies fanned the flames of war by supplying it with tanks and missiles.

Andrew Small, senior fellow at the German Marshall Fund, said China wants to be seen as doing its part for peace but is not prepared to press Putin to stop the war and sacrifice its relations with Russia.

“Beijing hasn’t thrown its weight around nor sought to coerce Russia into doing anything,” he said.

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Hong Kong rejects US report criticising crackdown on freedoms

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Hong Kong rejects US report criticising crackdown on freedoms

HONG KONG, (Reuters) – Hong Kong on Saturday “firmly rejected” findings in a new U.S. government report that said U.S. interests had been threatened and that Beijing continued to “undermine” the rule of law and freedoms in the territory under a national security crackdown.

The U.S.’ 2023 Hong Kong Policy Act Report, published by the U.S. State Department, said Chinese and Hong Kong authorities “continued to use ‘national security’ as a broad and vague basis to undermine the rule of law and protected rights and freedoms.”

China imposed a national security law on Hong Kong in June 2020 without any local legislative or consultative process, outlawing crimes such as subversion with possible life imprisonment.

Authorities say the law restored order after protracted pro-democracy protests in 2019, that called for, among other demands, full democracy.

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The city’s tougher security regimen mirrors mainland China, where Chinese leader Xi Jinping has implemented a fierce crackdown on dissent over the past decade, jailing critics and rights defenders.

“Hong Kong authorities continued to arrest and prosecute people for peaceful political expression critical of the local and central governments, including for posting and forwarding social media posts,” the U.S. report said.

A Hong Kong government spokesman, however, said in a statement that it “strongly disapproved of and firmly rejected the unfounded and fact-twisting remarks” in the report.

“The U.S.’ attempt to undermine the stability and prosperity of Hong Kong will only expose its own weakness and faulty arguments and be doomed to fail.”

The spokesman added the safeguarding of national security was of “cardinal importance” and all people are equal under the law regardless of political stance or background.

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Over 230 people have been arrested for alleged acts endangering national security since 2020, including 47 prominent democrats now battling subversion conspiracy charges in a landmark trial that will continue for several months.

The U.S. report also noted a drop in the number of U.S. citizens in Hong Kong from 85,000 in 2021 to around 70,000 due to a number of factors including tight Covid restrictions and national security.

China “increasingly exercised police and security power in Hong Kong, subjecting U.S. citizens who are publicly critical of the PRC (China) to a heightened risk of arrest, detention, expulsion, or prosecution in Hong Kong,” the report wrote, adding these risks had been highlighted in its government travel advisories for Hong Kong.

Forty of the 100 U.S. senators co-sponsored a resolution earlier this month urging a strong U.S. government response to any Chinese efforts to clamp down on dissent in Hong Kong, including the use of sanctions and other tools.

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Saudi Arabia issues new guidelines for Umrah during Ramazan

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Saudi Arabia issues new guidelines for Umrah during Ramazan

The Saudi Ministry of Hajj and Umrah has issued new guidelines for pilgrims wishing to perform Umrah during the holy month of Ramazan.

The ministry reiterated recently that pilgrims are no longer allowed to repeat Umrah and can only perform it once during the holy month.

This move aims at ensuring that all the pilgrims, who wish to perform Umrah during Ramazan, have the opportunity to do so with ease and comfort.

Last month, the Saudi government allowed pilgrims travelling to the Kingdom to perform Umrah to commute through the country’s all international airports.

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KSA’s General Authority of Civil Aviation (GACA) had issued a notification later. The authority directed the flights carrying passengers to the Kingdom to follow the guidelines. If violated, they will take stern action against them.

Earlier, the pilgrims travelling under visas for Umrah were allowed to travel through Jeddah and Medina airports only.

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Prominent Afghan girls’ education activist arrested in Kabul

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Prominent Afghan girls' education activist arrested in Kabul

KABUL (AFP) – The founder of a project that campaigned for girls’ education in Afghanistan has been detained by Taliban authorities in Kabul, his brother and the United Nations said Tuesday.

The Taliban government last year barred girls from attending secondary school and later university, making Afghanistan the only country in the world to issue such restrictions on education.

Matiullah Wesa, the head of PenPath was stopped by men outside a mosque after prayers on Monday evening, his brother Samiullah Wesa told AFP.

“When Matiullah asked for their identity cards, they beat him and forcefully took him away,” he said.

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“He has been arrested for his activities in the education sector. He never worked with anybody else, neither with the previous government. He only worked for PenPath.”

The UN mission in Afghanistan confirmed in a tweet that Matiullah had been arrested.

Taliban officials have so far not responded to requests for comment.

PenPath campaigns for schools and distributes books in rural areas, and has long dedicated itself to communicating the importance of girls’ education to elders in villages, where attitudes have been slowly changing.

Since the ban on secondary schools for girls, Wesa has continued visiting remote areas to drum up support from locals.

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“Men, women, elderly, young, everyone from every corner of the country are asking for the Islamic rights to education of their daughters,” he said in a tweet, hours before he was arrested.

Last week, as the new school year started without teenage girls, he vowed to continue his campaign.

“The damage that closure of schools causes is irreversible and undeniable. We held meetings with locals and we will continue our protest if the schools remain closed,” he tweeted.

Taliban officials have so far not responded to requests for comment.

‘Raise your voice’

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The Taliban government have imposed an austere interpretation of Islam since storming back to power in August 2021 after the withdrawal of the US and NATO forces that backed the previous governments.

Taliban leaders have repeatedly claimed they will reopen schools for girls once certain conditions have been met.

They say they lack the funds and time to remodel the syllabus along Islamic lines.

Taliban authorities made similar assurances during their first stint in power — from 1996 to 2001 — but girls’ schools never opened in five years.

In a recent speech in Geneva, UN special rapporteur on human rights in Afghanistan, Richard Bennett said that the Taliban authorities’ policy was to “repudiate the human rights of women and girls” in Afghanistan.

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“It may amount to the crime of gender persecution, for which the authorities can be held accountable,” he said.

The order against girls’ education is believed to have been made by Afghanistan’s supreme leader Hibatullah Akhundzada and his ultra-conservative aides, who are deeply sceptical of modern education — especially for women.

As well as sparking international outrage, it has stirred criticism from within the movement, with some senior officials in the Kabul government as well as many rank-and-file members against the decision.

Matiullah is the second leading educator to be arrested in recent months for campaigning for girls’ education.

In February, the authorities detained veteran journalism lecturer, Ismail Mashal, after local media showed him carting books around Kabul and offering them to passersby.

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It followed a live appearance on television in which he tore up his degree certificates to condemn the Taliban government’s restrictions on women’s right to work and education.

UN special rapporteur Bennett expressed alarm at Matiullah’s arrest: “His safety is paramount & all his legal rights must be respected.”

“Raise your voice for him,” added Pashtana Zalmai Khan Durrani, the head of Afghan non-profit education provider Learn.

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