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As Nikkei soars, Japanese investors rush for the exits

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As Nikkei soars, Japanese investors rush for the exits

As foreigners pile into Japan’s steepest stock market rally in years, local investors have been furiously cashing out or even betting against what many see as the beginning of a long-overdue era of profitability and returns.

The Nikkei share average’s (.N225) closed out its best month in 2-1/2 years on Wednesday, riding a wave of foreign cash and optimism for corporate reform that has taken it to heights not seen since the country’s asset bubble burst three decades ago.

Yet Japanese investors have been heavy sellers. In April and May, domestic outflows totalled around 2 trillion yen ($14.81 billion) for individual investors and over 2.2 trillion yen for Japanese institutions.

While foreign investors are excited about the prospect of a new era of growth in corporate Japan, domestic investors are eager to catch any profits they can, sticking to a strategy born out of decades of fleeting rallies.

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That means future gains may rely on foreigners, who are bullish but notoriously slow to act in size and wary of a market that’s been disappointing for a generation.

“It has been a trend that retail investors sell stocks at a peak. This time short-term investors sold stocks as they were cautious about the sharp gains of the Nikkei,” said Shoichi Arisawa, general manager of the investment research department at IwaiCosmo Securities.

“Long-term investors also sold stocks because they were saddled with losses after the Nikkei made a range-bound move for a long time.”

The country’s retail investors, who hold about 17% of domestic shares, are often net sellers in rising markets, according to strategists, looking to book their profits.

Rakuten Securities strategist Masayuki Kubota said domestic retail investors were the main driver of the market before the collapse of Japan’s bubble economy in 1990, while foreigners were net sellers.

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“After the bubble burst, foreigners turned to net buyers and it has been like that for 30 years,” Kubota said.

BUY CHEAP, SELL PEAKS
The benchmark Nikkei and the broader Topix (.TOPX) have long frustrated local and overseas investors alike as companies focused on market share ahead of shareholder returns.

But the Tokyo Stock Exchange’s push for better corporate governance and headline-grabbing purchases from famed investor Warren Buffet have propelled the Nikkei to an 18% rise in 2023, making it Asia’s best performing stock market.

“I sold some (when the Nikkei hit a 33-year peak last month) to lock in profits but kept most of them. I even bought some on the dip,” said Ohara, a Tokyo-based investor in his early 30s who only provided his last name.

Ohara said he would sell some of his stocks if the yen strengthened but was looking to add to his portfolio and expects Nikkei to rise further.

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Others seem to be actively betting against the tide.

Nomura’s Next Funds Nikkei 225 Double Inverse Index ETF (1357.T) has been popular with individual Japanese speculators in the past and has been in demand this year.

The fund is designed to pay investors two times the opposite of the Nikkei’s daily return, by taking short positions in Nikkei futures.

The fund has seen inflows of nearly $1 billion in the past two months, according to Refinitiv Lipper data, with $579 million in inflows in April the biggest since November 2020.

While domestic and foreign investors are at the opposite ends of the trade, large investors have so far sat out the rally on worries that Nikkei will yet again disappoint and the uncertainty over the Bank of Japan policy outlook.

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Analysts polled by Reuters last week expect the benchmark index to return to the psychologically key 30,000 level by year-end, with responses varying widely, revealing a deep split over the Nikkei’s outlook.

A Tokyo-based lawyer in his 60s, who asked not to be named, said Nikkei’s sudden rally was a signal to get out. “I would think that investing in bonds might be better under this environment.”

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Over 70pc global workforce faces climate change risks: ILO

Over 70pc global workforce faces climate change risks: ILO

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Over 70pc global workforce faces climate change risks: ILO

More than 70 per cent of the global workforce is exposed to risks linked to climate change that cause hundreds of thousands of deaths each year, the International Labour Organisation (ILO) said on Monday, adding governments would need to act as the numbers rise.

Workers, especially the world’s poorest, are more vulnerable than the general population to the dangers of climate extremes [extreme weather events] such as heatwaves, droughts, wildfires, and hurricanes because they are often the first exposed, or exposed for longer periods and at greater intensity.

Read more: Heat, disease, air pollution: How climate change impacts health

As climate change accelerates, governments and employers are struggling to protect employees, the ILO said in a report.

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“A staggering number of workers are already being exposed to climate change-related hazards in the workplace, and these figures are only likely to get worse,” the report entitled “Ensuring safety and health at work in a changing climate” said in its conclusions.

“As (the hazards) evolve and intensify, it will be necessary to re-evaluate existing legislation or create new regulations and guidance.”

Some countries have improved heat protections for workers, such as Qatar, whose policies came under scrutiny ahead of the 2022 soccer World Cup.

However, rules to govern other dangers like growing pesticide use for agricultural workers are less common.

Read more more: Climate change affecting women, especially those working in agri sector, disproportionally in countries like Pakistan

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“We do have some (countries) that already limit exposure to high temperatures and also limit exposure to air pollution, but we rarely have occupational exposure limits set for the other hazards,” said Manal Azzi, ILO Senior Specialist on occupational safety and health.

Read more: Lahore and Chingchi effects: Noise at workplace has serious effects on your health

The share of global workers exposed to the most widespread hazard, rising temperatures, has risen by around 5 percentage points over the last two decades to 70.9 per cent, the report said,

Other climate dangers often co-exist, creating a “cocktail of hazards,” the report said, with UV radiation and air pollution each affecting 1.6 billion people.

Read more: Climate change hits Asia hardest, below-normal rains in Hindu Kush range of Pakistan: UN

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Because a worker is likely to be exposed to multiple dangers at once, an ILO spokesperson said it was impossible to calculate exactly what portion of the 3.4 billion global workforce was at risk.

Climate-related hazards are being linked to a cancer, kidney dysfunction, and respiratory illnesses, leading to deaths or debilitating chronic conditions or disabilities.

Air pollution is the most deadly risk, causing some 860,000 work-related deaths among outdoor workers annually, the ILO report said. Excessive heat causes 18,970 occupational deaths each year and UV radiation kills 18,960 through non melanoma skin cancer, it said.

Read more: Pakistan among six nations bearing the brunt of pollution health burden

“The greatest impacts will be felt by the working poor, those working in the informal economy, seasonal workers and workers in micro and small enterprises,” the report said.

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In some cases, the very technologies meant to slow climate change like solar panels and lithium-ion batteries for electric vehicles can end up producing new dangers since they contain toxic chemicals, it said.

The ILO plans a major meeting in 2025 of government, employer and worker representatives to provide policy guidance on climate hazards.

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India sugar demand surges in heatwave and election season

India sugar demand surges in heatwave and election season

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India sugar demand surges in heatwave and election season

 Indian sugar consumption this year is poised to hit a record high as demand during the peak summer season gets a boost from heatwaves and the mobilisation of millions for elections in the scorching temperatures.

Higher consumption would lift local prices and boost margins of sugar producers such as Balrampur Chini, Shree Renuka Sugars, Bajaj Hindusthan and Dwarikesh Sugar, and help them in making cane payments on time to farmers.

Consumption of cold drinks and ice cream, and as a result demand for sugar, rises in India during the summer months roughly from mid-March to mid-June.

But this year demand is above average as heatwaves and election rallies boost consumption of ice-cream and soft drinks, said Avantika Saraogi, executive director at Balrampur Chini Mills.

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Maximum temperatures in many parts of India have risen above 40 degrees Celsius, and the weather department has forecasted that the country is likely to experience more heatwave days than normal between April and June.

Read more: India braces for heatwaves with impact seen on inflation, election 

During the harsh summer, India is hosting the world’s largest election, in which nearly a billion people will be eligible to vote.

Political parties hold huge rallies, some attended by as many as 200,000 people, undeterred by the sweltering heat, which only intensifies as the campaign picks up pace.

Earlier this week, following an energetic election rally at Pune in the scorching afternoon sun, dedicated workers of a political party flocked to a nearby restaurant to quench their thirst with refreshing soft drinks.

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“It’s sweltering out there. We need something icy to keep us going in this heat,” said Mahesh Pawar, one of the workers.

“We’re grateful to our leader for providing us with these refreshing beverages to keep our spirits high.”

SWEET SUMMER

Indian sugar consumption in during April-June could rise to 7.5 million tons, up 5 per cent from a year ago, said a Mumbai-based dealer with a global trade house.

This year’s unusual rise in consumption is temporary, with demand growth returning to a normal pace next year, said Prakash Naiknavare, managing director of the National Federation of Cooperative Sugar Factories Ltd.

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“But right now the industry is experiencing an unusual boost in demand. This is expected to lift total consumption this year to a record 29 million metric tons,” Naiknavare said.

India’s sugar consumption in the 2022-23 marketing year, which ended on Sept 30, stood at 27.85 million tons.

Higher demand has already begun lifting sugar prices, which have risen nearly 3pc in a fortnight.

The government has allocated a higher quota for April compared to last year, but prices are still rising due to robust demand from bulk consumers, said Ashok Jain, president of the Bombay Sugar Merchants Association.

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Refineries against fuel price deregulation which Ogra says will boost competition

Refineries against fuel price deregulation which Ogra says will boost competition

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Refineries against fuel price deregulation which Ogra says will boost competition

Pakistan’s plans to deregulate fuel prices could lead refiners to halt planned upgrades worth up to $6 billion and force some refineries to close, some of the country’s top refiners said in a letter to the country’s oil regulator.

Looking to drive down prices for consumers, the South Asian nation’s Oil & Gas Regulatory Authority (Ogra) has proposed that oil marketers and refineries be allowed to set fuel prices, instead of the government setting prices.

As part of the change, Ogra proposed scrapping or reviewing a rule that requires fuel buyers to purchase supply from local refineries, another issue the refiners said could result in “disastrous consequences”.

The refiners – state-run Pakistan Refinery and private domestic refiners Pak Arab Refinery, Attock Refinery, Cnergyico and National Refinery – said they were already struggling to operate near full capacity, and asked that they be consulted before the implementation of “irrational recommendations”.

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“The refining sector requires Ogra support through pragmatic and supportive measures, rather than suggesting ways that if implemented would result in their permanent closure,” the refiners told Ogra on Monday in a letter, which was reviewed by Reuters.

The deregulation was aimed at boosting competition and protecting the public interest, Ogra told Reuters in a statement on Tuesday, but did not respond to specific questions on the letter from the refiners. However, it said in an April 17 presentation reviewed by Reuters the potential impact of deregulation on refinery upgrades had to be assessed carefully, calling it a challenge.

“The refineries upgradation will bring in investment of $5-6 billion and not only result in cleaner environment-friendly fuels but also result in savings of precious foreign exchange of the country,” the refiners wrote in the letter to Ogra. 

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