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IMF’s Georgieva confident US will not default on debt

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IMF's Georgieva confident US will not default on debt

The managing director of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) Kristalina Georgieva said on Wednesday she was confident the United States would avoid a debt default.

The U.S. government could fall behind on its bills next month – and even default on its debt – if Congress doesn’t raise a $31.4 trillion cap on government borrowing, a failure that could trigger economic calamity and panic on global financial markets.

The latest round of talks on the debt ceiling between representatives of President Joe Biden and congressional Republicans ended without progress on Tuesday, as the June 1 deadline inched closer.

“History tells us that the US would wrestle with this notion of default… but come the 11th hour it gets resolved and I have confidence we will see that play again,” Georgieva said at the Qatar Economic Forum in Doha, organised by Bloomberg.

Finance ministers from Saudi Arabia and Qatar, who joined Georgieva for the panel discussion, agreed that a resolution was needed sooner rather than later.

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“I hope wisdom will prevail and prevail sooner (rather than later)… it is not easy to play with the international markets, and when they catch a cold, everybody will sneeze,” Mohammed Al Jadaan, the Saudi finance minister, said.

Georgieva said that the US dollar is likely to remain a global reserve currency despite increasing discussion on moves by countries to reduce their reliance on the greenback, known as “de-dollarisation”.

“We don’t expect a rapid shift in (dollar) reserves because the reason the dollar is a reserve currency is because of the strength of the US economy and the depth of its capital markets…Don’t kiss your dollars goodbye just yet,” Georgieva said.

During Georgieva’s visit to the Gulf state, she met with the Emir Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani.

Qatar has pledged 20% of its Special Drawing Rights (SDR) holdings towards the IMF’s Poverty Reduction and Growth Trust (PRGT) and Resilience Support Trust (RST) mechanisms for financial support, Georgieva said on Twitter.

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SDR is an international reserve asset created by the IMF to supplement other reserve assets of member countries. According to the IMF website, Qatar has SDR holdings of 985 million.

“The pledge made today would allow the IMF to expand concessional lending to low-income countries and expand lending to vulnerable-to-climate-shocks countries,” Georgieva said in a video shared by the Qatar News Agency. 

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Dollar treads water as Trump tariff clarity, central banks awaited

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Dollar treads water as Trump tariff clarity, central banks awaited

The dollar steadied against major peers on Thursday, continuing its near paralysis of the past two days before more concrete announcements on tariffs from U.S. President Donald Trump.

A spate of central bank policy decisions are also due over the next week, with the Bank of Japan widely expected to raise interest rates at the end of a two-day meeting on Friday.

Rate decisions from the U.S. Federal Reserve and European Central Bank are scheduled for Wednesday and Thursday of next week, respectively.

The dollar index – which measures the currency versus six top rivals, including the euro and yen – was flat at 108.25, following two days of gains of around 0.1%.

On Monday, it tumbled 1.2%, its steepest one-day slide since November 2023, as Trump’s first day in office brought a barrage of executive orders, but none on tariffs.

So far this week, Trump has mooted levies of around 25% on Canada and Mexico and 10% on China from Feb. 1. He also promised duties on European imports, without giving details.

“President Trump has so far taken a less hostile-than-expected approach to China,” amid overall “softer-than-expected policies and tone on tariffs”, said Carol Kong, a currency strategist at Commonwealth Bank of Australia.

At the same time, “we are cautious (that) risk sentiment remains fragile and can quickly turn sour if President Trump strikes a more aggressive tone.”

The Chinese yuan was little changed at 7.2812 per dollar in offshore trading .

Wall Street’s main indexes rose Wednesday, with the S&P 500 hitting an intraday record high thanks to strong Netflix earnings and a rally in tech shares.

Japan’s yen edged up about 0.1% to 156.40 with markets pricing 95% odds of a quarter-point hike on Friday.

The euro was flat at $1.0411. The ECB is widely expected to cut rates by a quarter point next week.

The Canadian dollar held steady at C$1.4386 against the greenback. The Bank of Canada is seen as likely to reduce rates by a quarter point next Wednesday.

The Mexican peso was little changed at 20.47 versus the U.S. currency.

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Oil prices extend losses amid uncertainty over tariff impact

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Oil prices extend losses amid uncertainty over tariff impact

Oil prices dipped in early trade on Thursday, extending losses amid uncertainty over how proposed tariffs by U.S. President Donald Trump on several countries would impact global economic growth and energy demand.

Brent crude futures fell 23 cents, or 0.3%, to $78.79 a barrel at 0135 GMT, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude (WTI) eased 18 cents, or 0.2%, to $75.26.

In its previous session, Brent futures settled at $79.00 in a fifth straight day of losses. WTI futures settled at $75.44 in a fourth consecutive day of declines.

Trump has said he would add new tariffs to his sanctions threat against Russia if the country does not make a deal to end its war in Ukraine. He added these could be applied to “other participating countries” as well.

He also vowed to hit the European Union with tariffs, impose 25% tariffs against Canada and Mexico, and said his administration was discussing a 10% punitive duty on China because fentanyl is being sent to the U.S. from there.

Meanwhile, estimates from an extended Reuters poll showed that on average U.S. crude oil stockpiles were expected to have fallen by 1.6 million barrels in the week to Jan. 17.

Gasoline stockpiles were estimated to have risen by 2.3 million barrels last week, and distillate inventories were likely to have gained 300,000 barrels.

The poll was conducted ahead of the American Petroleum Institute industry group’s report and another from the Energy Information Administration at 12:00 p.m. ET (1700 GMT) on Thursday.

European wind shares fell on Tuesday (January 21).

The reports were delayed by a day due to the Martin Luther King Jr. Day federal holiday on Monday.

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Pakistan, Saudi Arabia reaffirm commitment to boost economic ties

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Pakistan, Saudi Arabia reaffirm commitment to boost economic ties

Pakistan and Saudi Arabia have reaffirmed their commitment to further strengthening the bilateral economic ties for shared prosperity.

The commitment was expressed when Finance Minister Muhammad Aurangzeb met with his Saudi counterpart Mohammad bin Abdullah Al-Jadaan on the sidelines of World Economic Forum Annual Meeting in Davos.

Muhammad Aurangzeb highlighted the key reform measures undertaken by the Government to promote economic stability and sustainable growth.

He briefed him on structural reforms, fiscal discipline and regulatory improvements that have contributed to an improved investment climate in Pakistan.

Earlier, Aurangzeb met Anna Bjerde, Managing Director of Operations at the World Bank.

They discussed cooperation between Pakistan and the World Bank, with a particular focus on Pakistan’s macroeconomic stability.

The finance minister emphasized the government’s strong partnership with the Bank and expressed hope that the World Bank would continue playing a key role in the country’s socio-economic development.

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