Business
As Russian oil crosses G7’s price cap, US eyes soft enforcement
The Biden administration is poised to increase outreach to western trading houses, insurers and tanker owners to remind them to abide by the Group of Seven’s price cap on Russian oil as the crude trades over that level, sources and experts said.
The approach reflects a desire by Washington to encourage buyers to adhere to the $60 per barrel cap imposed last December on sea-borne exports of Russian crude by the G7, the European Union and Australia in retaliation for Russia’s war on Ukraine.
The administration is expected to use “soft” tactics, instead of widespread threats of harsh enforcement on potential violators as that could upend energy markets, they said.
“The initial inclination on the part of Treasury is to be soft on it, not to come down like a hammer on tankers and tanker owners, to enforce, but enforce quietly with letters, phone calls,” said a source familiar with the administration’s thinking on the matter.
US officials will likely increase communications with trading houses, tanker owners, insurers and others, reminding them that if western maritime services are used, attestations must be kept showing Russian oil was bought under $60, the source said.
A Biden administration source said such conversations with service providers about their requirements have been constant during the implementation of the caps.
“We’ve been having these types of conversations already and they will continue,” the source said.
The price cap bans Western companies from providing services such as transportation, insurance and financing for the oil sold above the cap.
According to Reuters data, Russian Urals crude has been trading at or above the cap for nearly two weeks. Treasury uses a monthly average of prices to calculate the Urals price, which means it may be a while before the Russian oil price can be considered over the cap.
The Treasury’s Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) says individuals or companies who evade, avoid, or violate the cap could face civil or criminal enforcement actions, including fines, and that it will work with other countries to share information about evasion.
“We are hell bent on ensuring that evasions are not distorting the market,” a senior U.S. Treasury official said.
The administration, however, is set to move slowly, wary of creating ripples in a market that could send rising global oil prices higher.
The administration is in a “policy pickle” because it does not want to come down too hard with enforcement threats and risk boosting global petroleum prices by interfering with the movement of oil, the source with knowledge of administration thinking said.
“They’ll spook the service providers facilitating exports, they certainly don’t want to do that.”
High consumer energy prices are a political risk for President Joe Biden, who is seeking re-election in 2024.
The cap has always had two objectives: reducing Russia’s revenues from oil exports, and ensuring that oil continues to flow to global markets. The administration insists the cap is effective.
Deputy Treasury Secretary Wally Adeyemo has recently spoken with countries with large shipping fleets and shipping trade, while Elizabeth Rosenberg, Treasury’s assistant secretary for terrorist financing and financial crimes, has called protection and indemnity insurance providers, known as P&I clubs, to remind players of requirements related to Russian oil purchases, the administration source said.
Another US government source said that the Urals price is high because of recent deals to countries that are outside the cap.
Such sales, mainly to India and China, are expensive for Russia, the source said. Russia has to spend money on a ghost tanker fleet and other expenses to ship oil long distances instead of via pipelines mainly to Europe.
Adeyemo said last month the Russian central bank has guaranteed about $9 billion in a reinsurance scheme intended to replace western reinsurance, due to the price cap, money the Kremlin cannot invest in weapons to fight its war in Ukraine.
The State Department is “closely monitoring all vessels engaged in loading of crude oil and petroleum products from Russia, as well as potential evasion or non-compliance, including the use of deceptive practices to access coalition services for oil traded above the caps,” a spokesperson said.
If Urals prices continue to climb above the cap, Washington could urge fellow G7 countries and the EU to raise the cap, but that would be a diplomatic and political undertaking that faces resistance from Eastern European countries and US lawmakers.
Ben Cahill, an energy security and climate expert at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, agreed enforcement will proceed slowly.
“We could see stronger enforcement on the tanker fleet and the tracking of the ownership of vessels, better quality of attestation of paperwork,” said Cahill. “But there won’t likely be a dramatic change unless oil prices stay high for a while.”
Business
Dollar treads water as Trump tariff clarity, central banks awaited
The dollar steadied against major peers on Thursday, continuing its near paralysis of the past two days before more concrete announcements on tariffs from U.S. President Donald Trump.
A spate of central bank policy decisions are also due over the next week, with the Bank of Japan widely expected to raise interest rates at the end of a two-day meeting on Friday.
Rate decisions from the U.S. Federal Reserve and European Central Bank are scheduled for Wednesday and Thursday of next week, respectively.
The dollar index – which measures the currency versus six top rivals, including the euro and yen – was flat at 108.25, following two days of gains of around 0.1%.
On Monday, it tumbled 1.2%, its steepest one-day slide since November 2023, as Trump’s first day in office brought a barrage of executive orders, but none on tariffs.
So far this week, Trump has mooted levies of around 25% on Canada and Mexico and 10% on China from Feb. 1. He also promised duties on European imports, without giving details.
“President Trump has so far taken a less hostile-than-expected approach to China,” amid overall “softer-than-expected policies and tone on tariffs”, said Carol Kong, a currency strategist at Commonwealth Bank of Australia.
At the same time, “we are cautious (that) risk sentiment remains fragile and can quickly turn sour if President Trump strikes a more aggressive tone.”
The Chinese yuan was little changed at 7.2812 per dollar in offshore trading .
Wall Street’s main indexes rose Wednesday, with the S&P 500 hitting an intraday record high thanks to strong Netflix earnings and a rally in tech shares.
Japan’s yen edged up about 0.1% to 156.40 with markets pricing 95% odds of a quarter-point hike on Friday.
The euro was flat at $1.0411. The ECB is widely expected to cut rates by a quarter point next week.
The Canadian dollar held steady at C$1.4386 against the greenback. The Bank of Canada is seen as likely to reduce rates by a quarter point next Wednesday.
The Mexican peso was little changed at 20.47 versus the U.S. currency.
Business
Oil prices extend losses amid uncertainty over tariff impact
Oil prices dipped in early trade on Thursday, extending losses amid uncertainty over how proposed tariffs by U.S. President Donald Trump on several countries would impact global economic growth and energy demand.
Brent crude futures fell 23 cents, or 0.3%, to $78.79 a barrel at 0135 GMT, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude (WTI) eased 18 cents, or 0.2%, to $75.26.
In its previous session, Brent futures settled at $79.00 in a fifth straight day of losses. WTI futures settled at $75.44 in a fourth consecutive day of declines.
Trump has said he would add new tariffs to his sanctions threat against Russia if the country does not make a deal to end its war in Ukraine. He added these could be applied to “other participating countries” as well.
He also vowed to hit the European Union with tariffs, impose 25% tariffs against Canada and Mexico, and said his administration was discussing a 10% punitive duty on China because fentanyl is being sent to the U.S. from there.
Meanwhile, estimates from an extended Reuters poll showed that on average U.S. crude oil stockpiles were expected to have fallen by 1.6 million barrels in the week to Jan. 17.
Gasoline stockpiles were estimated to have risen by 2.3 million barrels last week, and distillate inventories were likely to have gained 300,000 barrels.
The poll was conducted ahead of the American Petroleum Institute industry group’s report and another from the Energy Information Administration at 12:00 p.m. ET (1700 GMT) on Thursday.
European wind shares fell on Tuesday (January 21).
The reports were delayed by a day due to the Martin Luther King Jr. Day federal holiday on Monday.
Business
Pakistan, Saudi Arabia reaffirm commitment to boost economic ties
Pakistan and Saudi Arabia have reaffirmed their commitment to further strengthening the bilateral economic ties for shared prosperity.
The commitment was expressed when Finance Minister Muhammad Aurangzeb met with his Saudi counterpart Mohammad bin Abdullah Al-Jadaan on the sidelines of World Economic Forum Annual Meeting in Davos.
Muhammad Aurangzeb highlighted the key reform measures undertaken by the Government to promote economic stability and sustainable growth.
He briefed him on structural reforms, fiscal discipline and regulatory improvements that have contributed to an improved investment climate in Pakistan.
Earlier, Aurangzeb met Anna Bjerde, Managing Director of Operations at the World Bank.
They discussed cooperation between Pakistan and the World Bank, with a particular focus on Pakistan’s macroeconomic stability.
The finance minister emphasized the government’s strong partnership with the Bank and expressed hope that the World Bank would continue playing a key role in the country’s socio-economic development.
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