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Bonds bounce, dollar dips on Bessent pick

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Bonds bounce, dollar dips on Bessent pick

Bond markets cheered the selection of fund manager Scott Bessent as US Treasury secretary on Monday on expectations he could keep a leash on US debt, while falling yields tugged down the dollar and the mood lifted US stock futures close to record highs.

S&P 500 futures were last 0.5% higher while Dow and Nasdaq futures were up 0.6%. Even beaten-down European futures rose 0.7% and the friendless euro, which hit a two-year low on Friday, bounced 0.5%.

Italian lender UniCredit announced a $10.6 billion all-scrip bid for rival Banco BPM – putting those stocks on the radar at the open in Milan.

Benchmark 10-year Treasury yields were down more than 5 basis points to 4.355% and the dollar was also lower on the yen, sterling and Antipodean currencies.

“The market view (is) that Bessent is a ‘safe hands’ candidate,” said Stephen Spratt, strategist at Societe Generale, a relief as the risk of a more unorthodox pick was priced out of markets and as Bessent has mentioned restraining US borrowing.

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In Asia’s equity markets Japan’s Nikkei jumped 1.7% while rises in Sydney and Seoul offset selling in Hong Kong and China to lift MSCI’s broadest index of Asia shares outside Japan about 0.7%.

President-elect Trump’s appointment of a Treasury secretary has been closely watched in bond markets as expectations of tax cuts as well as tariffs and an immigration crackdown have stoked fears of inflation and big deficits.

Bessent told the Wall Street Journal in an interview published on Sunday that both tax and spending cuts were priorities.

Bessent told CNBC earlier in November, before his selection as Treasury secretary, that he would recommend “tariffs be layered in gradually”, though his appointment gave only the merest and short-lived boost to China’s yuan.

The currency last traded flat at 7.2445 to the dollar while the stockmarket was heavy with selling across e-commerce stocks in Hong Kong. The Hang Seng fell 0.4% and Shanghai Composite 0.6%.

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EURO PRESSURE

The week ahead is likely to be lightened by Thursday’s Thanksgiving holiday in the United States, where many traders will probably make a long weekend of it.

October PCE and jobless figures will be published on Wednesday along with the latest GDP estimate and Federal Reserve minutes are due on Tuesday.

Market pricing for a Fed cut next month, which has dialled back in recent weeks, was steady in Asia with about even chances of a hold or a 25 basis point cut. Expectations of a deep cut in New Zealand are gathering steam with a 50 basis point cut for Wednesday fully priced and about 1/3 chance of a 75 bp cut.

New Zealand’s stock market has notched its best two-day rally since June, gaining 3.2% on Thursday’s close. The currency touched a one-year low of $0.5917 on Friday and traded a little firmer at $0.5850 on Monday.

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At $1.0457 the euro had recovered from last week’s lows though there was hardly a sigh of relief.

The single currency had taken a hit on Friday as European manufacturing surveys showed broad weakness and the central bank’s chief economist did little to dispel expectations for extra rate cuts in an interview with France’s Les Echos.

“Monetary policy should not remain restrictive for too long,” said the European Central Bank’s Philip Lane.

Bitcoin ticked up slightly from Sunday to $98,334. On Friday, it reached a record peak of $99,830 amid expectations of a more friendly regulatory environment for cryptocurrencies under Trump.

The token is up about 45% since Trump’s sweeping election victory on Nov. 5, when voters also elected a slew of pro-crypto lawmakers to Congress. 

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Dollar treads water as Trump tariff clarity, central banks awaited

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Dollar treads water as Trump tariff clarity, central banks awaited

The dollar steadied against major peers on Thursday, continuing its near paralysis of the past two days before more concrete announcements on tariffs from U.S. President Donald Trump.

A spate of central bank policy decisions are also due over the next week, with the Bank of Japan widely expected to raise interest rates at the end of a two-day meeting on Friday.

Rate decisions from the U.S. Federal Reserve and European Central Bank are scheduled for Wednesday and Thursday of next week, respectively.

The dollar index – which measures the currency versus six top rivals, including the euro and yen – was flat at 108.25, following two days of gains of around 0.1%.

On Monday, it tumbled 1.2%, its steepest one-day slide since November 2023, as Trump’s first day in office brought a barrage of executive orders, but none on tariffs.

So far this week, Trump has mooted levies of around 25% on Canada and Mexico and 10% on China from Feb. 1. He also promised duties on European imports, without giving details.

“President Trump has so far taken a less hostile-than-expected approach to China,” amid overall “softer-than-expected policies and tone on tariffs”, said Carol Kong, a currency strategist at Commonwealth Bank of Australia.

At the same time, “we are cautious (that) risk sentiment remains fragile and can quickly turn sour if President Trump strikes a more aggressive tone.”

The Chinese yuan was little changed at 7.2812 per dollar in offshore trading .

Wall Street’s main indexes rose Wednesday, with the S&P 500 hitting an intraday record high thanks to strong Netflix earnings and a rally in tech shares.

Japan’s yen edged up about 0.1% to 156.40 with markets pricing 95% odds of a quarter-point hike on Friday.

The euro was flat at $1.0411. The ECB is widely expected to cut rates by a quarter point next week.

The Canadian dollar held steady at C$1.4386 against the greenback. The Bank of Canada is seen as likely to reduce rates by a quarter point next Wednesday.

The Mexican peso was little changed at 20.47 versus the U.S. currency.

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Oil prices extend losses amid uncertainty over tariff impact

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Oil prices extend losses amid uncertainty over tariff impact

Oil prices dipped in early trade on Thursday, extending losses amid uncertainty over how proposed tariffs by U.S. President Donald Trump on several countries would impact global economic growth and energy demand.

Brent crude futures fell 23 cents, or 0.3%, to $78.79 a barrel at 0135 GMT, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude (WTI) eased 18 cents, or 0.2%, to $75.26.

In its previous session, Brent futures settled at $79.00 in a fifth straight day of losses. WTI futures settled at $75.44 in a fourth consecutive day of declines.

Trump has said he would add new tariffs to his sanctions threat against Russia if the country does not make a deal to end its war in Ukraine. He added these could be applied to “other participating countries” as well.

He also vowed to hit the European Union with tariffs, impose 25% tariffs against Canada and Mexico, and said his administration was discussing a 10% punitive duty on China because fentanyl is being sent to the U.S. from there.

Meanwhile, estimates from an extended Reuters poll showed that on average U.S. crude oil stockpiles were expected to have fallen by 1.6 million barrels in the week to Jan. 17.

Gasoline stockpiles were estimated to have risen by 2.3 million barrels last week, and distillate inventories were likely to have gained 300,000 barrels.

The poll was conducted ahead of the American Petroleum Institute industry group’s report and another from the Energy Information Administration at 12:00 p.m. ET (1700 GMT) on Thursday.

European wind shares fell on Tuesday (January 21).

The reports were delayed by a day due to the Martin Luther King Jr. Day federal holiday on Monday.

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Pakistan, Saudi Arabia reaffirm commitment to boost economic ties

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Pakistan, Saudi Arabia reaffirm commitment to boost economic ties

Pakistan and Saudi Arabia have reaffirmed their commitment to further strengthening the bilateral economic ties for shared prosperity.

The commitment was expressed when Finance Minister Muhammad Aurangzeb met with his Saudi counterpart Mohammad bin Abdullah Al-Jadaan on the sidelines of World Economic Forum Annual Meeting in Davos.

Muhammad Aurangzeb highlighted the key reform measures undertaken by the Government to promote economic stability and sustainable growth.

He briefed him on structural reforms, fiscal discipline and regulatory improvements that have contributed to an improved investment climate in Pakistan.

Earlier, Aurangzeb met Anna Bjerde, Managing Director of Operations at the World Bank.

They discussed cooperation between Pakistan and the World Bank, with a particular focus on Pakistan’s macroeconomic stability.

The finance minister emphasized the government’s strong partnership with the Bank and expressed hope that the World Bank would continue playing a key role in the country’s socio-economic development.

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