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Oil drops from highest in weeks, focus on Fed rate cuts

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Oil drops from highest in weeks, focus on Fed rate cuts

Oil futures eased from their highest levels in weeks as traders took profit while waiting for a Federal Reserve meeting later this week for clues on further rate cuts.

Falls were limited, however, by concerns of supply disruptions in the event of more US sanctions on major suppliers Russia and Iran.

Brent crude futures fell 29 cents, or 0.4%, to $74.20 a barrel by 0746 GMT after settling at their highest level since Nov. 22 on Friday.

US West Texas Intermediate crude dropped 36 cents, or 0.5%, to $70.93 a barrel after reaching its highest settlement level since Nov. 7 in the previous session.

“After last week’s +6% rally, and with crude oil trading towards the top of recent range highs, we are likely seeing some light profit-taking,” IG market analyst Tony Sycamore said.

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“Also it is likely a lot of trading books at banks and funds shut up shop at the end of last week and have reduced appetite for positions over the festive season.”

Oil prices were bolstered by new European Union sanctions on Russian oil last week and expectations of tighter sanctions on Iranian supply, he added.

US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen told Reuters on Friday that the US is looking at further sanctions on “dark fleet” tankers and will not rule out sanctions on Chinese banks as it seeks to reduce Russia’s oil revenue and access to foreign supplies to fuel its war in Ukraine.

Fresh US sanctions on entities trading Iranian oil are already driving prices of the crude sold to China to the highest in years. The incoming Trump administration is expected to ramp up pressure on Iran.

Oil prices were also supported by key central bank interest rate cuts in Canada, Europe and Switzerland last week and expectations the Fed will cut rates this week, Sycamore said.

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The Fed is expected to cut interest rates by a quarter of a percentage point at its Dec. 17-18 meeting which will also provide an updated look at how much further Fed officials think they will reduce rates in 2025 and perhaps into 2026.

Lower interest rates can boost economic growth and demand for oil.

Still, forecasts of ample supply in 2025 by the International Energy Agency and CNPC’s forecasts of a decline in oil demand in China, the world’s second-largest consumer, after consumption peaked in 2023 are factors that will continue to weigh on global oil markets.

Economic data released on Monday showed China’s industrial output growth quickened slightly in November, while retail sales disappointed, keeping alive calls for Beijing to ramp up consumer-focused stimulus as policymakers brace for more US trade tariffs under a second Trump administration.

“We continue to expect more policy easing in 2025, and we believe fiscal stimulus will do the heavy lifting, with increased priorities on consumption,” Goldman Sachs analysts said in a note on China.

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Dollar treads water as Trump tariff clarity, central banks awaited

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Dollar treads water as Trump tariff clarity, central banks awaited

The dollar steadied against major peers on Thursday, continuing its near paralysis of the past two days before more concrete announcements on tariffs from U.S. President Donald Trump.

A spate of central bank policy decisions are also due over the next week, with the Bank of Japan widely expected to raise interest rates at the end of a two-day meeting on Friday.

Rate decisions from the U.S. Federal Reserve and European Central Bank are scheduled for Wednesday and Thursday of next week, respectively.

The dollar index – which measures the currency versus six top rivals, including the euro and yen – was flat at 108.25, following two days of gains of around 0.1%.

On Monday, it tumbled 1.2%, its steepest one-day slide since November 2023, as Trump’s first day in office brought a barrage of executive orders, but none on tariffs.

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So far this week, Trump has mooted levies of around 25% on Canada and Mexico and 10% on China from Feb. 1. He also promised duties on European imports, without giving details.

“President Trump has so far taken a less hostile-than-expected approach to China,” amid overall “softer-than-expected policies and tone on tariffs”, said Carol Kong, a currency strategist at Commonwealth Bank of Australia.

At the same time, “we are cautious (that) risk sentiment remains fragile and can quickly turn sour if President Trump strikes a more aggressive tone.”

The Chinese yuan was little changed at 7.2812 per dollar in offshore trading .

Wall Street’s main indexes rose Wednesday, with the S&P 500 hitting an intraday record high thanks to strong Netflix earnings and a rally in tech shares.

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Japan’s yen edged up about 0.1% to 156.40 with markets pricing 95% odds of a quarter-point hike on Friday.

The euro was flat at $1.0411. The ECB is widely expected to cut rates by a quarter point next week.

The Canadian dollar held steady at C$1.4386 against the greenback. The Bank of Canada is seen as likely to reduce rates by a quarter point next Wednesday.

The Mexican peso was little changed at 20.47 versus the U.S. currency.

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Oil prices extend losses amid uncertainty over tariff impact

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Oil prices extend losses amid uncertainty over tariff impact

Oil prices dipped in early trade on Thursday, extending losses amid uncertainty over how proposed tariffs by U.S. President Donald Trump on several countries would impact global economic growth and energy demand.

Brent crude futures fell 23 cents, or 0.3%, to $78.79 a barrel at 0135 GMT, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude (WTI) eased 18 cents, or 0.2%, to $75.26.

In its previous session, Brent futures settled at $79.00 in a fifth straight day of losses. WTI futures settled at $75.44 in a fourth consecutive day of declines.

Trump has said he would add new tariffs to his sanctions threat against Russia if the country does not make a deal to end its war in Ukraine. He added these could be applied to “other participating countries” as well.

He also vowed to hit the European Union with tariffs, impose 25% tariffs against Canada and Mexico, and said his administration was discussing a 10% punitive duty on China because fentanyl is being sent to the U.S. from there.

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Meanwhile, estimates from an extended Reuters poll showed that on average U.S. crude oil stockpiles were expected to have fallen by 1.6 million barrels in the week to Jan. 17.

Gasoline stockpiles were estimated to have risen by 2.3 million barrels last week, and distillate inventories were likely to have gained 300,000 barrels.

The poll was conducted ahead of the American Petroleum Institute industry group’s report and another from the Energy Information Administration at 12:00 p.m. ET (1700 GMT) on Thursday.

European wind shares fell on Tuesday (January 21).

The reports were delayed by a day due to the Martin Luther King Jr. Day federal holiday on Monday.

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Pakistan, Saudi Arabia reaffirm commitment to boost economic ties

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Pakistan, Saudi Arabia reaffirm commitment to boost economic ties

Pakistan and Saudi Arabia have reaffirmed their commitment to further strengthening the bilateral economic ties for shared prosperity.

The commitment was expressed when Finance Minister Muhammad Aurangzeb met with his Saudi counterpart Mohammad bin Abdullah Al-Jadaan on the sidelines of World Economic Forum Annual Meeting in Davos.

Muhammad Aurangzeb highlighted the key reform measures undertaken by the Government to promote economic stability and sustainable growth.

He briefed him on structural reforms, fiscal discipline and regulatory improvements that have contributed to an improved investment climate in Pakistan.

Earlier, Aurangzeb met Anna Bjerde, Managing Director of Operations at the World Bank.

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They discussed cooperation between Pakistan and the World Bank, with a particular focus on Pakistan’s macroeconomic stability.

The finance minister emphasized the government’s strong partnership with the Bank and expressed hope that the World Bank would continue playing a key role in the country’s socio-economic development.

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