Business
US Treasury to launch measures to avoid debt limit breach on Tuesday
US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said that the government will reach its statutory borrowing limit on Tuesday and begin employing “extraordinary measures” to keep from breaching the cap and risking a potential catastrophic default.
Yellen, in a letter to congressional leaders just three days before the Biden administration turns over U.S. government control to President-elect Donald Trump and his team, said the Treasury would begin using extraordinary measures on Jan. 21.
“The period of time that extraordinary measures may last is subject to considerable uncertainty, including the challenges of forecasting the payments and receipts of the U.S. Government months into the future,” Yellen said in the letter.
Yellen said the Treasury would suspend investments in two government employee benefit funds through March 14, to claw back borrowing capacity under the $36.1 trillion debt ceiling. As of Thursday, the Treasury reported borrowings of $36.08 trillion.
The move will suspend new investments that are not immediately required to pay benefits from the Civil Service Retirement and Disability Fund and the Postal Service Retiree Health Benefits Fund. Once the debt limit is increased or suspended, the funds are required to be made whole.
Yellen said there was “considerable uncertainty” over how long the measures would last and urged Congress to raise or suspend the debt limit “to protect the full faith and credit of the United States.”
TRUMP’S PROBLEM
In late December, Yellen had said that the debt cap would likely be reached between Jan. 14 and 23 after Congress opted against including an extension or permanent revocation of the limit in a last-minute budget deal near the end of the year.
Trump himself had urged lawmakers to extend or repeal the debt ceiling and later blasted an earlier failure to do so in 2023 as “one of the dumbest political decisions made in years.”
But many Republican lawmakers view the limit as an important leverage point in fiscal negotiations.
The debt ceiling issue presents an early challenge to Yellen’s expected successor, Trump Treasury pick Scott Bessent. The hedge fund manager told a U.S. Senate confirmation hearing on Thursday that the ceiling is a “nuanced convention” but if Trump wants to eliminate it, he would work with Congress and the White House to make that happen.
The Treasury has a number of extraordinary balance sheet measures it can employ to avoid default, which budget analysts say could last several months, depending on the strength of tax revenues.
Ultimately, failure to raise, suspend or eliminate the debt limit could prevent the Treasury from paying all of its obligations. A default on U.S. default would likely have severe economic consequences.
A debt limit is a cap set by Congress on how much money the U.S. government can borrow. Because the government spends more money than it collects in tax revenue, lawmakers need to periodically tackle the issue – a politically difficult task, as many are reluctant to vote for more debt.
The debt ceiling’s history dates back to 1917, when Congress gave the Treasury more borrowing flexibility to finance America’s entry into World War One but with certain limits.
Lawmakers approved the first modern limit on aggregate debt in 1939 at $45 billion, and have approved 103 increases since as spending outran tax revenue. Publicly held debt was 98% of U.S. gross domestic product as of October, compared with 32% in October 2001.
The dollar steadied against major peers on Thursday, continuing its near paralysis of the past two days before more concrete announcements on tariffs from U.S. President Donald Trump.
A spate of central bank policy decisions are also due over the next week, with the Bank of Japan widely expected to raise interest rates at the end of a two-day meeting on Friday.
Rate decisions from the U.S. Federal Reserve and European Central Bank are scheduled for Wednesday and Thursday of next week, respectively.
The dollar index – which measures the currency versus six top rivals, including the euro and yen – was flat at 108.25, following two days of gains of around 0.1%.
On Monday, it tumbled 1.2%, its steepest one-day slide since November 2023, as Trump’s first day in office brought a barrage of executive orders, but none on tariffs.
So far this week, Trump has mooted levies of around 25% on Canada and Mexico and 10% on China from Feb. 1. He also promised duties on European imports, without giving details.
“President Trump has so far taken a less hostile-than-expected approach to China,” amid overall “softer-than-expected policies and tone on tariffs”, said Carol Kong, a currency strategist at Commonwealth Bank of Australia.
At the same time, “we are cautious (that) risk sentiment remains fragile and can quickly turn sour if President Trump strikes a more aggressive tone.”
The Chinese yuan was little changed at 7.2812 per dollar in offshore trading .
Wall Street’s main indexes rose Wednesday, with the S&P 500 hitting an intraday record high thanks to strong Netflix earnings and a rally in tech shares.
Japan’s yen edged up about 0.1% to 156.40 with markets pricing 95% odds of a quarter-point hike on Friday.
The euro was flat at $1.0411. The ECB is widely expected to cut rates by a quarter point next week.
The Canadian dollar held steady at C$1.4386 against the greenback. The Bank of Canada is seen as likely to reduce rates by a quarter point next Wednesday.
The Mexican peso was little changed at 20.47 versus the U.S. currency.
Oil prices dipped in early trade on Thursday, extending losses amid uncertainty over how proposed tariffs by U.S. President Donald Trump on several countries would impact global economic growth and energy demand.
Brent crude futures fell 23 cents, or 0.3%, to $78.79 a barrel at 0135 GMT, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude (WTI) eased 18 cents, or 0.2%, to $75.26.
In its previous session, Brent futures settled at $79.00 in a fifth straight day of losses. WTI futures settled at $75.44 in a fourth consecutive day of declines.
Trump has said he would add new tariffs to his sanctions threat against Russia if the country does not make a deal to end its war in Ukraine. He added these could be applied to “other participating countries” as well.
He also vowed to hit the European Union with tariffs, impose 25% tariffs against Canada and Mexico, and said his administration was discussing a 10% punitive duty on China because fentanyl is being sent to the U.S. from there.
Meanwhile, estimates from an extended Reuters poll showed that on average U.S. crude oil stockpiles were expected to have fallen by 1.6 million barrels in the week to Jan. 17.
Gasoline stockpiles were estimated to have risen by 2.3 million barrels last week, and distillate inventories were likely to have gained 300,000 barrels.
The poll was conducted ahead of the American Petroleum Institute industry group’s report and another from the Energy Information Administration at 12:00 p.m. ET (1700 GMT) on Thursday.
European wind shares fell on Tuesday (January 21).
The reports were delayed by a day due to the Martin Luther King Jr. Day federal holiday on Monday.
Pakistan and Saudi Arabia have reaffirmed their commitment to further strengthening the bilateral economic ties for shared prosperity.
The commitment was expressed when Finance Minister Muhammad Aurangzeb met with his Saudi counterpart Mohammad bin Abdullah Al-Jadaan on the sidelines of World Economic Forum Annual Meeting in Davos.
Muhammad Aurangzeb highlighted the key reform measures undertaken by the Government to promote economic stability and sustainable growth.
He briefed him on structural reforms, fiscal discipline and regulatory improvements that have contributed to an improved investment climate in Pakistan.
Earlier, Aurangzeb met Anna Bjerde, Managing Director of Operations at the World Bank.
They discussed cooperation between Pakistan and the World Bank, with a particular focus on Pakistan’s macroeconomic stability.
The finance minister emphasized the government’s strong partnership with the Bank and expressed hope that the World Bank would continue playing a key role in the country’s socio-economic development.
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