Business
Dollar slumps to eight-week low vs yen as trade war risk recedes

The U.S. dollar slumped to an eight-week trough to the yen and lingered near a one-month low versus sterling on Thursday, as investor nerves about an inflation-stoking global trade war abated.
Japan’s currency was also supported by rising expectations for further Bank of Japan interest-rate hikes with a central bank official advocating continued rate hikes, a day after strong wage data.
Sterling was firm even with the Bank of England widely expected to cut rates by a quarter point later in the day.
The dollar sank 0.5% to 151.81 yen by 0140 GMT, the lowest since December 12, adding to a 1.1% slide on Wednesday.
Sterling was steady at $1.2509 , after rising as high as $1.2550 in the previous session for the first time since January 7.
The euro was flat at $1.0401 after edging up 0.2% on Wednesday.
The dollar index – which measures the U.S. currency against the euro, sterling, yen and three other major peers – stood at 107.57, not far from its overnight low of 107.29.
The index had jumped to a three-week high of 109.88 at the start of the week as Trump looked poised to impose 25% import tariffs on Mexico and Canada, but the countries won last-minute, one-month reprieves – although Washington did slap 10% tariffs on China.
The offshore yuan strengthened slightly to 7.2775 per dollar.
Canada’s loonie was steady at C$1.4321 versus its U.S. counterpart after rising to the highest since December 17 at C$1.4270 overnight. The Mexican peso was steady at 20.5789 per dollar.
“It appears that the market has started to put the tariff threats against Mexico and Canada in the rear view mirror and is treating the China tariffs as business as usual,” said James Kniveton, a senior corporate FX dealer at Convera.
“Two (U.S.) rate cuts are still anticipated by the end of the year, but with the diminishing likelihood of tariffs contributing to inflation, there appears to be greater flexibility for the Federal Reserve.”
The next major test for the U.S. monetary policy outlook is monthly payrolls figures due Friday.
A quarter-point Fed cut is fully priced for July, with markets expecting 46.3 basis points of cuts by the December meeting, according to LSEG data.
Meanwhile, market-implied odds for an imminent BoE rate reduction stand at 92%. For the BOJ, the market has priced in around 94.8% odds for a quarter-point hike by September.
BOJ board member Naoki Tamura said on Thursday that the central bank must raise rates to at least 1% or so in the later half of fiscal 2025 with upward risks to prices rising.
A day earlier, data showed a second-straight month of growth for real wages.
Business
Oil prices edge lower as concerns over tariff impact grow

Oil prices fell for a second day in early trade on Tuesday on worries that U.S. tariffs on Canada, Mexico and China would slow economies around the world and hurt energy demand while OPEC+ ramps up its supply.
Brent futures fell 29 cents, or 0.42%, to $68.99 a barrel at 0016 GMT, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures lost 36 cents, or 0.55%, to $65.67 a barrel.
U.S. President Donald Trump’s protectionist policies have roiled markets across the world, with Trump imposing and then delaying tariffs on his country’s biggest oil suppliers, Canada and Mexico, while also raising duties on Chinese goods. China and Canada have responded with tariffs of their own.
Over the weekend, Trump said a “period of transition” for the economy is likely but declined to predict whether the U.S. could face a recession amid stock market concerns about his tariff actions
“Trump’s comments triggered a wave of selling as investors started pricing in the risk of weaker growth in demand,” Daniel Hynes, senior commodity strategist at ANZ said.
Stocks, which crude prices often follow, slumped on Monday, with all three major U.S. indexes suffering sharp declines. The S&P 500 (.SPX) had its biggest one-day drop since December 18 and the Nasdaq slid 4.0%, its biggest single-day percentage drop since September 2022.
U.S. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick said on Sunday Trump would not let up pressure on tariffs on Mexico, Canada and China.
On the supply front, Russia’s Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak said on Friday the OPEC+ group agreed to start increasing oil production from April, but could reverse the decision afterwards if there were market imbalances.
In the U.S., crude oil stockpiles were expected to have risen last week, while distillate and gasoline inventories likely fell, a preliminary Reuters poll showed on Monday.
The poll was conducted ahead of weekly reports from industry group the American Petroleum Institute, due at 4:30 p.m. EDT (2030 GMT) later on Tuesday, and the Energy Information Administration, the statistical arm of the U.S. Department of Energy, at 10:30 a.m. EDT (1430 GMT) on Wednesday.
Business
Dollar dithers as safety bid flows to the yen

The yen was investors’ safe harbour of choice on Tuesday and it traded near five-month highs as fears about a tariff-driven slowdown in U.S. growth have rattled U.S. stocks and the dollar.
The Nasdaq (.IXIC) fell 4% overnight and the S&P 500 (.SPX) slid 2.7% as equities caught up with a big rally in U.S. bonds, moving on the risk that U.S. economic growth slows down.
The yen touched a five-month peak of 146.625 per dollar and was last trading at 146.85.
Other moves in the currency market were more muted, but the lack of flight to the dollar – which has been sinking in recent weeks – was noteworthy, according to analysts.
The overnight drop in the risk-sensitive Australian dollar was a modest 0.4% and it last bought $0.6272. Sterling was holding on above its 200-day moving average at $1.2875 and the euro was steady just above $1.08.
There were falls in the Canadian dollar and Mexican peso – the economies whose exports are to bear the brunt of U.S. tariffs – but they were modest.
The Canadian dollar was last steady around C$1.44 per dollar and the peso was at 20.34 per dollar. China’s yuan was steady at 7.26 per dollar in early offshore trade on Tuesday.
“Historically, the dollar outperforms when we get a solid rise in volatility, but when the U.S. economy and U.S. equity market is the central point of concern, this is now limiting the attractiveness of the dollar,” said Chris Weston, head of research at broker Pepperstone in Melbourne.
The turmoil in equities seemed to be triggered by a Donald Trump Fox News interview, in which the president talked about a “period of transition” and declined to predict whether his tariffs on China, Canada and Mexico would result in a U.S. recession.
The dollar index , however, had already notched its largest weekly drop in more than two years last week as selling tracked a fall in U.S. bond yields and the euro leapt on German plans to reform a brake on borrowing.
“The market is unsure whether fading U.S. exceptionalism will continue to hurt the dollar or whether the dollar benefits from its safe-haven status,” said Bank of Singapore strategist Sim Moh Siong, noting any extension of selling in stock markets may lead safe-haven dollar buying to finally kick in.
The dollar index was mostly flat overnight as small rises against the Aussie and sterling were offset by losses on the yen and it settled at 103.89.
Germany’s Greens overnight vowed to block plans for a massive increase in state borrowing to revamp the military, but forwarded rival proposals in a bid for compromise and the euro handed back none of its massive gains from last week.
U.S. bonds, however, rallied, pushing down yields at a time when global yields are spiking.
In a week, the gap between 10-year U.S. and German yields has shrunk 33 basis points and the gap between U.S. and Japanese yields has shrunk 17 bps.
Business
Petrol price likely to drop by Rs15 per litre

The federal government is likely to cut the petroleum prices in upcoming second fortnightly review for March 2025 amid downward trend in global market.
Sources said the petrol price is expected to drop by Rs13 to Rs15 per litre while the price of high speed diesel may go down by Rs11 per litre.
The Oil and Gas Regulatory Authority (Ogra) will send its recommendations to the Ministry of Finance for revising the petroleum prices. However, a final decision will be taken after consultation with Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif.
Meanwhile, oil prices fell for a second day on Tuesday in international market, as concerns mounted over a potential US recession, the impact of tariffs on global growth and as OPEC+ sets its sight on ramping up supply.
Brent futures fell 6 cents, or 0.1%, to $69.22 a barrel at 0402 GMT, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures lost 13 cents, or 0.2%, to $65.90 a barrel.
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