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Falling inflation shifts focus to when ECB could cut rates

Falling inflation shifts focus to when ECB could cut rates

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Falling inflation shifts focus to when ECB could cut rates

 With inflation dropping faster than expected and the economic outlook darkening, markets will be looking for clues about when euro zone borrowing costs might start to come down as rate-setters meet this week.

The European Central Bank is expected to leave interest rates unchanged Thursday for its second meeting in a row, as policymakers take a breather following a historic run of hikes to tame runaway prices.

Read more: Cost-of-living crisis is worsening not just in Pakistan but even in developed West

But all eyes will be on whether the ECB gives any indications of when borrowing costs – the key deposit rate is currently sitting at a record high – will start to be reduced.

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Speculation has intensified since euro zone inflation slowed faster than expected to 2.4 per cent in November, a more than two-year low and not far off the ECB’s 2pc target.

Inflation in the 20 countries that use the euro peaked at about 10pc last year after prices were pushed up first by post-pandemic supply chain woes, and then an energy crisis triggered by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

Thursday’s meeting “looks likely to provide some idea of how soon and how fast policymakers are willing to start cutting interest rates”, said Andrew Kenningham from Capital Economics.

He added that ECB president Christine Lagarde was likely to “concede that rate cuts may not be as distant as previously thought”.

Markets and analysts have been bringing forward their predictions for when the ECB will start slashing rates – some now expect a first reduction in April, months earlier than previous forecasts.

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Read more: Buckle up! Interest rates are here to stay for longer: IMF chief

Providing further ammunition to those arguing for a cut to come soon, the euro zone outlook has worsened.

The European Commission last month lowered its euro zone growth forecast for 2023 and 2024, and in its latest financial stability review, the ECB warned that a recession was a “possible scenario”.

DOVISH SHIFT?

There have also been signs of a more dovish attitude at the ECB.

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Isabel Schnabel – seen as among the ECB’s more conservative members – said in an interview earlier this month that the November inflation reading was “quite remarkable”, and it had made further rate hikes unlikely.

Still, there is uncertainty about the path forward, particularly as officials have warned inflation may tick up again in the coming months.

At the last ECB meeting in October, Lagarde dismissed any talk about cuts as “premature”.

And last month, she insisted that it was “not time yet to start declaring victory”.

The ECB’s monetary policy decision will come a day after the US Federal Reserve’s, with both central banks expected to remain on hold.

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Read more: Personal loans amid record-high interest rates

Messaging about next steps will prove tricky for euro zone rate-setters as debate heats up about when to make the first cut, analysts say.

But HSBC said in a note that Lagarde “is likely to reinforce the message that it is too early to talk about rate cuts… We do not expect explicit guidance on the possible timing of the first cut.”

Key to charting a course forward could be the Frankfurt-based institution’s latest forecasts for inflation and growth in the coming years, also due to be released Thursday.

Pressure is growing, particularly from more indebted euro zone economies, for cuts to come sooner rather than later.

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As well as the impact of higher rates and a long period of elevated inflation, the single currency area faces problems ranging from a stuttering world economy to uncertainty about energy prices as the Israel-Hamas war rages.

2023 had been “a challenging year for the EU economy, in which growth has slowed down more than expected”, the bloc’s economy commissioner, Paolo Gentiloni, said last month.

“Strong price pressures and the monetary tightening needed to contain them, as well as weak global demand, have taken their toll on households and businesses.” 

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Weaker yen, cheaper Japan and over three million foreign tourists

Weaker yen, cheaper Japan and over three million foreign tourists

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Weaker yen, cheaper Japan and over three million foreign tourists

Japan welcomed more than three million visitors for a second straight month in April, official data showed on Wednesday, setting the stage for a potential record year for tourism.

The number of foreign visitors for business and leisure was 3.04 million last month, edging down from the monthly record of 3.08 million achieved in March, data from the Japan National Tourism Organization (JNTO) showed.

Arrivals in April were up 56pc from the prior year and 4pc higher than in 2019, before the COVID-19 pandemic shut global borders. Visitors from France, Italy, and the Middle East rose to record levels in April for any single month.

The yen’s slide to a 34-year low has made Japan a bargain destination for foreign visitors, with arrivals set to blow past the annual record of 31.9 million seen in 2019.

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Read more: Weak yen boosts tourist wallets in Japan, per head spending up 52pc when compared to 2019

While the surge in arrivals is good news for Japan’s economy, it has caused frictions with locals. Complaints of litter and illegal parking caused local officials to erect a barrier this month to block a popular photo spot of Japan’s iconic Mt Fuji.

Trail restrictions and a new 2,000 yen ($12.79) fee will go into effect for Mt Fuji climbers this summer after a rise in pollution and accidents during last year’s hiking season.

Visitors from Mainland China, Japan’s biggest tourist market before the pandemic, exceeded 500,000 in April for the first time since January 2020 but were still 27pc below the level in 2019.

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Beijing considers local government purchases of Chinese unsold homes

Beijing considers local government purchases of Chinese unsold homes

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Beijing considers local government purchases of Chinese unsold homes

China is considering a plan for local governments nationwide to buy millions of unsold homes, Bloomberg News said on Wednesday, after a meeting of leaders of the ruling Communist Party called for efforts to clear mounting housing inventory.

The State Council is gathering feedback on the preliminary plan from various provinces and government bodies, the report added, citing people familiar with the matter.

China’s blue-chip CSI 300 real estate index climbed as much as 6 per cent at one point following the report, before paring gains, while the yuan firmed.

China’s property sector has been in a deep slump for years, hit by a debt crisis among developers. Since 2022, waves of policy measures have failed to turn around the sector that represents around a fifth of the economy and remains a major drag on Chinese consumer spending and confidence.

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Banks have been reluctant to heed Beijing’s repeated nudges to bolster credit to the embattled sector given the risks of more bad loans and continued weak sales. Home sales value of top 100 developers in April slid 45pc from a year earlier, according to recent surveys published by CRIC, a major real estate information provider.

The Politburo of the Communist Party held a meeting on April 30, saying it would improve policies to clear mounting housing inventories.

Dozens of cities have offered subsidies to encourage residents to replace their old apartments with new ones, in order to sell their growing stock of new apartments and provide crucial cash-flow to ailing developers.

Local state-owned enterprises would be asked to help purchase unsold homes from distressed developers at steep discounts using loans provided by state banks, according to the report, adding that many of these homes would then be converted into affordable housing.

Officials in China are debating the plan’s details and feasibility, and it could take months for it to be finalised, if the country’s leaders decide to go ahead, the report said.

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Linan district in the eastern city of Hangzhou issued a notice on Tuesday that the local government will purchase new apartments from private developers for public rental housing.

The district, which has 650,000 residents, said the total area of the flats purchased does not exceed 10,000 square metres. The homes will be existing houses or pre-sold homes available for delivery within one year.

China’s housing ministry did not respond to Reuters request for comment.

One of the biggest drags on property demand is that cash-strapped private developers have halted construction on a large number of new homes that were pre-sold but now cannot be delivered on time. The buyers of these homes, meanwhile, are continuing to pay off their mortgages.

Estimates vary widely, but analysts agree there are tens of millions of uncompleted apartments across China after a building boom turned to bust.

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“It’s been our view that Beijing will eventually have to address concerns about homes being delivered,” economists from Nomura said in a recent research note.

“Beijing should reach into its own pockets, even with printed money from the People’s Bank of China, to support the completion of new homes that were pre-sold by developers,” noting such a move made more sense than building public housing from scratch.

Nomura expects that eventually Beijing will set up a special agency and set aside a special fund for such a rescue.

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Pakistan external financing needs estimated at $22bn, lower power tariffs proposed for industries

Pakistan external financing needs estimated at $22bn, lower power tariffs proposed for industries

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Pakistan external financing needs estimated at $22bn, lower power tariffs proposed for industries

As talks are progress between the visiting International Monetary Fund (IMF) mission and Pakistan, the government economic team has given an initial estimate of external financing of around $22 billion, sources say.

At the same time, Islamabad has shared a power tariff rationalisation plan for industrial sector with the IMF, meant to boost much-needed domestic production and exports by giving a package to the related industries.

When it comes to external financing, issuance of sukuk bonds worth $1.5bn during the next fiscal year 2024-25 is part of the plan.

On the other hand, Pakistan is also hopeful of friendly nations extending loan rollover of around $12bn, the sources say, as the cash-starved country badly needs external financing to meet its financial obligations.

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Read more: Talks start to secure IMF programme, agreement reached on budget targets

Pakistan requires to ensure debt repayments as per schedule which includes not only the principal amount but also interest payments.

At the same time, the bonds issued by Pakistan repeatedly during the past years have been attractive only because of the high interest rates, which thus worsens the debt repayments challenge for the country.

PAKISTAN PANDA BONDS

Meanwhile, panda bonds – which are denominated in Chinese yuan but issued by foreign borrowers, including companies, multilateral agencies and governments – are also part of this plan.

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Finance Minister Muhammad Aurangzeb had stated earlier in March that Pakistan was keen to tap Chinese investors by selling as much as $300 million in panda bonds for the first time ever.

He had told Bloomberg in an interview that selling yuan-denominated debt would allow Pakistan to diversify its funding sources and reach investors in a new market. “It’s something “we should have looked at quite frankly some time back.”

China has the second-largest and deepest bond market in the world and “it is the right thing to do” for Pakistan to tap that market, given Pakistan has already sold dollar and Eurobonds, Aurangzeb said.

According to the sources, the Pakistani authorities are confident that there will be an over $2bn inflow during the current fiscal year before June-end, while financial assistance from the World Bank and the Asian Development Bank (ADB) is also expected in 2024-25.

BOOSTING PAKISTAN EXPORTS

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Through the planned tariff rationalisation, the government wants to offer a package to the industrial sector to increase domestic production required to boost exports of Pakistani products by making the same competitive in international markets.

Read more: Power basic tariff hike is one of the IMF demands

Rising costs of doing businesses – an obvious result of high interest rates and energy prices – has crippled the economy and made the goal of increasing exports impossible.

In this connection, the sources say different proposals are being drafted for industrial power tariff cuts meant to boost the export-oriented industries.

The industrial sector, the sources added, have to make additional payments for providing subsidy to the domestic electricity consumers.

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With estimated cost of Rs100bn to be incurred in 2024-25, the plan will be included the next budget document after its approval by Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif – a move that can increase exports by $2bn to $3bn. 

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