Business

ASEAN finance leaders end meetings in Laos, pointing to challenges from geopolitics, volatile prices

Published

1 month ago

April 5, 2024

admin

ASEAN finance leaders end meetings in Laos, pointing to challenges from geopolitics, volatile prices

Southeast Asian economies are gaining ground as tourism and exports recover from the shocks of the pandemic, but geopolitical tensions and volatile commodity prices still pose serious risks, regional financial leaders said Friday.

Laos’ Finance Minister Santiphab Phomvihane read out a joint statement following meetings among finance ministers at a hotel in the Laotian city of Luang Prabang, a UNESCO heritage site, but he made no other remarks and took no questions.

Estimates for economic growth in members of the 10-nation Association of Southeast Asian Nations vary but are generally near a robust 5% for 2024.

“Nevertheless, there are still challenges due to adverse financial spillovers from geopolitical tensions, volatility in global commodity prices,” Phomvihane said, also pointing to climate change, aging populations and rapid development of digitalization as key factors for the region.

He did not elaborate, but the repercussions of the war in Ukraine and tensions between Washington and Beijing are among the geopolitical risks that have impacted trade and global commodity prices in recent years, trickling down to the smaller ASEAN economies that depend heavily on trade with China.

ASEAN members also include Brunei, Cambodia, Indonesia, Malaysia, Myanmar, the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand and Vietnam. East-Timor is seeking to join.

As ASEAN’s most economically challenged economy, excluding its strife-torn neighbor Myanmar, Laos has time to prepare for the aging of its youthful population of about 7.5 million. The government reckons it is in a demographic sweet spot with a couple of decades to prepare. But it faces a raft of other troubles, with massive foreign debt, a weakening currency and inflation running at about 25%.

In terms of U.S. dollars Laos’ economy is shrinking due to the devaluation of its currency, the kip. However, in local currency terms it grew at a 3.7% rate last year and is forecast to expand at a 4% rate in 2024.

“Things are normalizing,” said Winfried F. Wicklein, director general for Southeast Asia for the Asian Development Bank.

But the country is deemed to be in debt distress, with payment obligations exceeding $1 billion a year and total borrowing amounting to about 125% of its economy, with half owed to China.

Chinese financial institutions are believed to have rescheduled payments for about $2 billion in those debts since 2020, helping Laos to avoid an outright default and relieving some pressure on the economy.

“Pretty big chunks of debt repayments owed to China are being pushed into the future with not much transparency around the repayment process for this,” said Keith Barney, a professor at Australia National University’s Crawford School of Public Policy and who has been researching Laos for more than 20 years.

“It’s a bit of a serious situation the Lao economy is in at the moment and not any immediately apparent exit route that we can easily see,” he said. “Laos’ debt problems are narrowing its future options for economic growth in different ways.”

Still, Laos has acknowledged the seriousness of its debt quandary, allowing the public release of a report by the International Monetary Fund last year that minced no words in outlining urgent actions it said were needed to repair the country’s finances, Wicklein noted.

“They realize they have a problem and are open to help. They are inviting you to the kitchen and it means a lot,” he said.

On the sidelines of the ASEAN meetings this week, Laos signed agreements on launching cross-border payments using QR codes, among other incremental steps aimed at integrating its finances and economy into those of its bigger and richer neighbors.

There were no big statements on climate-related issues as the officials met surrounded by forests obscured by thick smoke from hill fires and burning of fields and waste, a seasonal problem that Laos shares with its ASEAN neighbors.

But such meetings allow top financial officials to collaborate in sharing lessons they have learned as they plot strategies on curbing carbon emissions.

“It’s a long way to go, but everybody is committed to the same direction,” Wicklein said.

Wicklein pointed to a 600 megawatt monsoon wind power project that will allow Laos to export electricity to neighboring Vietnam as an example of increasing investments in the energy sector beyond Laos’ huge hydroelectric power sector.

“These megadeals have a demonstrable effect,” he said.

Post Views: 39

Business

Weaker yen, cheaper Japan and over three million foreign tourists

Published

22 hours ago

May 16, 2024

admin

Weaker yen, cheaper Japan and over three million foreign tourists

Japan welcomed more than three million visitors for a second straight month in April, official data showed on Wednesday, setting the stage for a potential record year for tourism.

The number of foreign visitors for business and leisure was 3.04 million last month, edging down from the monthly record of 3.08 million achieved in March, data from the Japan National Tourism Organization (JNTO) showed.

Arrivals in April were up 56pc from the prior year and 4pc higher than in 2019, before the COVID-19 pandemic shut global borders. Visitors from France, Italy, and the Middle East rose to record levels in April for any single month.

The yen’s slide to a 34-year low has made Japan a bargain destination for foreign visitors, with arrivals set to blow past the annual record of 31.9 million seen in 2019.

Read more: Weak yen boosts tourist wallets in Japan, per head spending up 52pc when compared to 2019

While the surge in arrivals is good news for Japan’s economy, it has caused frictions with locals. Complaints of litter and illegal parking caused local officials to erect a barrier this month to block a popular photo spot of Japan’s iconic Mt Fuji.

Trail restrictions and a new 2,000 yen ($12.79) fee will go into effect for Mt Fuji climbers this summer after a rise in pollution and accidents during last year’s hiking season.

Visitors from Mainland China, Japan’s biggest tourist market before the pandemic, exceeded 500,000 in April for the first time since January 2020 but were still 27pc below the level in 2019.

Post Views: 11

Business

Beijing considers local government purchases of Chinese unsold homes

Published

22 hours ago

May 16, 2024

admin

Beijing considers local government purchases of Chinese unsold homes

China is considering a plan for local governments nationwide to buy millions of unsold homes, Bloomberg News said on Wednesday, after a meeting of leaders of the ruling Communist Party called for efforts to clear mounting housing inventory.

The State Council is gathering feedback on the preliminary plan from various provinces and government bodies, the report added, citing people familiar with the matter.

China’s blue-chip CSI 300 real estate index climbed as much as 6 per cent at one point following the report, before paring gains, while the yuan firmed.

China’s property sector has been in a deep slump for years, hit by a debt crisis among developers. Since 2022, waves of policy measures have failed to turn around the sector that represents around a fifth of the economy and remains a major drag on Chinese consumer spending and confidence.

Banks have been reluctant to heed Beijing’s repeated nudges to bolster credit to the embattled sector given the risks of more bad loans and continued weak sales. Home sales value of top 100 developers in April slid 45pc from a year earlier, according to recent surveys published by CRIC, a major real estate information provider.

The Politburo of the Communist Party held a meeting on April 30, saying it would improve policies to clear mounting housing inventories.

Dozens of cities have offered subsidies to encourage residents to replace their old apartments with new ones, in order to sell their growing stock of new apartments and provide crucial cash-flow to ailing developers.

Local state-owned enterprises would be asked to help purchase unsold homes from distressed developers at steep discounts using loans provided by state banks, according to the report, adding that many of these homes would then be converted into affordable housing.

Officials in China are debating the plan’s details and feasibility, and it could take months for it to be finalised, if the country’s leaders decide to go ahead, the report said.

Linan district in the eastern city of Hangzhou issued a notice on Tuesday that the local government will purchase new apartments from private developers for public rental housing.

The district, which has 650,000 residents, said the total area of the flats purchased does not exceed 10,000 square metres. The homes will be existing houses or pre-sold homes available for delivery within one year.

China’s housing ministry did not respond to Reuters request for comment.

One of the biggest drags on property demand is that cash-strapped private developers have halted construction on a large number of new homes that were pre-sold but now cannot be delivered on time. The buyers of these homes, meanwhile, are continuing to pay off their mortgages.

Estimates vary widely, but analysts agree there are tens of millions of uncompleted apartments across China after a building boom turned to bust.

“It’s been our view that Beijing will eventually have to address concerns about homes being delivered,” economists from Nomura said in a recent research note.

“Beijing should reach into its own pockets, even with printed money from the People’s Bank of China, to support the completion of new homes that were pre-sold by developers,” noting such a move made more sense than building public housing from scratch.

Nomura expects that eventually Beijing will set up a special agency and set aside a special fund for such a rescue.

Post Views: 10

Business

Pakistan external financing needs estimated at $22bn, lower power tariffs proposed for industries

Published

22 hours ago

May 16, 2024

admin

Pakistan external financing needs estimated at $22bn, lower power tariffs proposed for industries

As talks are progress between the visiting International Monetary Fund (IMF) mission and Pakistan, the government economic team has given an initial estimate of external financing of around $22 billion, sources say.

At the same time, Islamabad has shared a power tariff rationalisation plan for industrial sector with the IMF, meant to boost much-needed domestic production and exports by giving a package to the related industries.

When it comes to external financing, issuance of sukuk bonds worth $1.5bn during the next fiscal year 2024-25 is part of the plan.

On the other hand, Pakistan is also hopeful of friendly nations extending loan rollover of around $12bn, the sources say, as the cash-starved country badly needs external financing to meet its financial obligations.

Read more: Talks start to secure IMF programme, agreement reached on budget targets

Pakistan requires to ensure debt repayments as per schedule which includes not only the principal amount but also interest payments.

At the same time, the bonds issued by Pakistan repeatedly during the past years have been attractive only because of the high interest rates, which thus worsens the debt repayments challenge for the country.

PAKISTAN PANDA BONDS

Meanwhile, panda bonds – which are denominated in Chinese yuan but issued by foreign borrowers, including companies, multilateral agencies and governments – are also part of this plan.

Finance Minister Muhammad Aurangzeb had stated earlier in March that Pakistan was keen to tap Chinese investors by selling as much as $300 million in panda bonds for the first time ever.

He had told Bloomberg in an interview that selling yuan-denominated debt would allow Pakistan to diversify its funding sources and reach investors in a new market. “It’s something “we should have looked at quite frankly some time back.”

China has the second-largest and deepest bond market in the world and “it is the right thing to do” for Pakistan to tap that market, given Pakistan has already sold dollar and Eurobonds, Aurangzeb said.

According to the sources, the Pakistani authorities are confident that there will be an over $2bn inflow during the current fiscal year before June-end, while financial assistance from the World Bank and the Asian Development Bank (ADB) is also expected in 2024-25.

BOOSTING PAKISTAN EXPORTS

Through the planned tariff rationalisation, the government wants to offer a package to the industrial sector to increase domestic production required to boost exports of Pakistani products by making the same competitive in international markets.

Read more: Power basic tariff hike is one of the IMF demands

Rising costs of doing businesses – an obvious result of high interest rates and energy prices – has crippled the economy and made the goal of increasing exports impossible.

In this connection, the sources say different proposals are being drafted for industrial power tariff cuts meant to boost the export-oriented industries.

The industrial sector, the sources added, have to make additional payments for providing subsidy to the domestic electricity consumers.

With estimated cost of Rs100bn to be incurred in 2024-25, the plan will be included the next budget document after its approval by Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif – a move that can increase exports by $2bn to $3bn.

Post Views: 12