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How climate change fuels extreme heat

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How climate change fuels extreme heat

Heatwaves across Asia and beyond have already broken records this year, while the arrival of the El Nino climate phenomenon will mean even more extreme temperatures.
Here AFP looks at how climate change produces extreme heat, how scientists evaluate heatwaves and the risks to human health:

What is extreme heat?

Extreme heat is defined from a baseline of the average temperature in any one location, which varies widely across the world.

So a temperature of 25 degrees Celsius (77 degrees Fahrenheit) could be record-breaking in parts of Canada in spring, but might be below average for the same period in the Middle East.

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What role does climate change play?

“Greenhouse gases trapping heat are at the root of the problem,” said Martin Jucker, a lecturer at the University of New South Wales’ Climate Change Research Centre. Gases like carbon dioxide, methane and nitrous oxide play a crucial role in stopping heat from being reflected or lost from our atmosphere.

When this process is balanced, it keeps the planet at a livable temperature.

But an unsustainable increase in the amount of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere means more heat is being trapped, creating an overall global warming effect and other climate anomalies. For example, warming air holds more moisture, which produces stronger and more frequent storms.

Overall, climate change is strengthening the duration, intensity and geographical reach of heatwaves, scientists say.

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What about human interventions?

The problem is made worse in some places by the way cities are built — the so-called heat island effect, where urban conglomerations are warmer than surrounding rural areas. This happens because cities with too little greenery and too much concrete, asphalt and other building materials absorb heat and often offer insufficient shade.

The use of cooling technologies like air conditioners creates surging demand for energy, including the fossil fuels that are behind the climate crisis in the first place.

Are all heatwaves linked to climate change?

To determine climate change’s role in any given event, experts use a technique called attribution science. They simulate a world with and without climate change, using historical and more recent measurements, or computer models.

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Comparing the two then “gives us a measure of how much more likely a given extreme is under climate change”, Jucker told AFP.

Findings for over 500 events have been collected by the organisation Carbon Brief, with most shown to have been made more severe or more likely because of climate change.

Just a handful, including some floods, droughts and extreme cold, have been found to have no clear link to human activity, while in other cases experts found the evidence inconclusive.

“Every heatwave in the world is now made stronger and more likely to happen because of human-caused climate change,” according to Friederike Otto, a scientist at Imperial College London and pioneer of attribution methodology.

How does extreme heat affect people?

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Exposure to higher-than-normal temperatures produces health problems ranging from heatstroke and dehydration to cardiovascular stress. Those with pre-existing heart conditions are especially vulnerable, as the body’s response to heat is to pump more blood to the skin to help with cooling.

Risk is also unevenly distributed, with the elderly and the unwell more vulnerable, and those who work outdoors or live in places without air conditioning more likely to suffer.

The deadliest heat combines soaring temperatures with high humidity — the moist air undermines the body’s ability to cool off by sweating.

In May, a study warned a fifth of the world’s population would be exposed to extreme and potentially life-threatening heat by the end of the century on our current climate track.

“For every 0.1C of warming above present levels, about 140 million more people will be exposed to dangerous heat,” the study published in Nature Sustainability warned.

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Israel insists it is doing all it can to protect civilians in Gaza and denies genocide charges

Israel insists it is doing all it can to protect civilians in Gaza and denies genocide charges

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Israel insists it is doing all it can to protect civilians in Gaza and denies genocide charges

Israel strongly denied charges of genocide on Friday, telling the United Nations’ top court it was doing everything it could to protect the civilian population during its military operation in Gaza.

The International Court of Justice wrapped up a third round of hearings on emergency measures requested by South Africa, which says Israel’s military incursion in the southern city of Rafah threatens the “very survival of Palestinians in Gaza” and has asked the court to order a cease-fire.

Tamar Kaplan-Tourgeman, one of Israel’s legal team, defended the country’s conduct, saying it had allowed in fuel and medication to the beleaguered enclave.

“Israel takes extraordinary measures in order to minimize the harm to civilians in Gaza,” she told The Hague-based court.

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A protester shouting “Liars” briefly interrupted Kaplan-Tourgeman’s final remarks. The hearing was paused for less than a minute while security guards escorted a woman from the public gallery.

South Africa told the court on Thursday that the situation in the beleaguered enclave has reached “a new and horrific stage” and urged judges to order a half to Israeli military operations. The court was holding a third round of hearings on emergency measures requested by South Africa since it first filed its genocide case at the end of last year.

According to the latest request, South Africa says Israel’s military incursion in Rafah threatens the “very survival of Palestinians in Gaza.” In January, judges ordered Israel to do all it can to prevent death, destruction and any acts of genocide in Gaza, but the panel stopped short of ordering an end to the military offensive. Judges will now deliberate on the request and are expected to issue a decision in the next weeks.

ICJ judges have broad powers to order a cease-fire and other measures, though the court doesn’t have its own enforcement apparatus. A 2022 order by the court demanding that Russia halt its full-scale invasion of Ukraine has so far gone unheeded.

Most of Gaza’s population of 2.3 million people have been displaced since fighting began.

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The war began with a Hamas attack on southern Israel on Oct. 7 in which Palestinian militants killed around 1,200 people and took about 250 hostages. More than 35,000 Palestinians have been killed in the war, Gaza’s Health Ministry says, without distinguishing between civilians and combatants in its count.

South Africa initiated proceedings in December 2023 and sees the legal campaign as rooted in issues central to its identity. Its governing party, the African National Congress, has long compared Israel’s policies in Gaza and the occupied West Bank to its own history under the apartheid regime of white minority rule, which restricted most Blacks to “homelands.” Apartheid ended in 1994. 

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Ukraine braces for ‘heavy battles’ as Putin says Russia carving out Kharkiv buffer zone

Ukraine braces for ‘heavy battles’ as Putin says Russia carving out Kharkiv buffer zone

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Ukraine braces for 'heavy battles' as Putin says Russia carving out Kharkiv buffer zone

Ukraine’s top commander warned on Friday of “heavy battles” looming on the war’s new front in the northeastern Kharkiv region as Russian President Vladimir Putin said Moscow was carving out a “buffer zone” in the area.

Russian forces attacked the Kharkiv region’s north last Friday, making inroads of up to 10 kilometres (6 miles) and unbalancing Kyiv’s outnumbered troops who are trying to hold the line over a sprawling front nearly 27 months since the full-scale invasion.

Colonel-General Oleksandr Syrskyi said the attack had expanded the area of hostilities by around 70km and that Russia had launched its incursion ahead of schedule when “it noticed the deployment of our forces”.

“We understand there will be heavy battles and that the enemy is preparing for that,” the head of the Ukrainian armed forces wrote in a statement on the Telegram app.

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Speaking during a state visit to China, Putin said Moscow’s forces were creating a “buffer zone”to protect Russian border regions, but that capturing the city of Kharkiv, Ukraine’s second largest, was not part of the current plan.

The Russian leader told a news conference the assault was a response to Kyiv’s shelling of Russian border regions such as Belgorod.

“Civilians are dying there. It’s obvious. They are shooting directly at the city centre, at residential areas. And I said publicly that if this continues, we will be forced to create a security zone, a buffer zone. That is what we are doing,” Putin said.

Russian forces were able to advance 10 kilometres in one place, but Ukrainian forces have “stabilised” the front, President Volodymyr Zelenskiy told Ukrainian media outlets in comments published on Friday.

HEAVIEST ASSAULTS IN EAST

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Moscow’s forces are mounting their heaviest assaults in the eastern Donetsk region, according to data compiled by the Ukrainian General Staff, which said the eastern Pokrovsk front had faced the most regular assaults in recent days.

In his comments, Syrskyi said Ukrainian forces were preparing their defensive lines for a possible new Russian assault on the Sumy region, which would mark another front more than a hundred kilometres to the north of Kharkiv.

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Four dead in New Caledonia riots, France declares state of emergency

Four dead in New Caledonia riots, France declares state of emergency

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Four dead in New Caledonia riots, France declares state of emergency

France declared a state of emergency on the Pacific island of New Caledonia on Wednesday after three young indigenous Kanak and a police official were killed in riots over electoral reform.

The state of emergency, which entered into force at 5 am local time (1800 GMT), gives authorities additional powers to ban gatherings and forbid people from moving around the French-ruled island.

Police reinforcements adding 500 officers to the 1,800 usually present on the island, have been sent after rioters torched vehicles and businesses and looted stores. Schools have been shut and there is already a curfew in the capital.

Rioting broke out over a new bill, adopted by lawmakers in Paris on Tuesday, that will let French residents who have lived in New Caledonia for 10 years vote in provincial elections – a move some local leaders fear will dilute the Kanak vote.

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“No violence will be tolerated,” said Prime Minister Gabriel Attal, adding that the state of emergency “will allow us to roll out massive means to restore order.”

He later signed a decree declaring a state of emergency that will last for 12 days and announced that French soldiers would be used to secure New Caledonia’s main port and airport.

Authorities also decided to ban video app TikTok, which the government during a bout of riots on France’s mainland last summer said helped rioters organise and amplified the chaos, attracting troublemakers to the streets.

TikTok could not immediately be reached for comment.

Earlier in the day, a spokesperson for New Caledonia’s President Louis Mapou said three young indigenous Kanak had died in the riots. The French government later said a 24-year-old police official had died from a gunshot wound.

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“He took off his helmet (to speak to residents) and he was shot right in the head,” Interior Minister Gerald Darmanin said.

Noumea resident Yoan Fleurot told Reuters in a Zoom interview that he was staying at home out of respect for the nightly curfew and was very scared for his family.

“I don’t see how my country can recover after this”, Fleurot said, adding he carries a gun during the day when he goes out to film the rioters he called ‘terrorists’.

Police were outnumbered by protesters, locals told Reuters.

Electoral reform is the latest flashpoint in a decades-long tussle over France’s role in the mineral-rich island, which lies in the southwest Pacific, some 1,500 km (930 miles) east of Australia.

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France annexed the island in 1853 and gave the colony the status of overseas territory in 1946. It has long been rocked by pro-independence movements.

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New Caledonia is the world’s No. 3 nickel miner and residents have been hit by a crisis in the sector, with one in five living under the poverty threshold.

“Politicians have a huge share of responsibility,” said 30-year-old Henri, who works in a hotel in Noumea. “Loyalist politicians, who are descendents of colonialists, say colonisation is over, but Kanak politicians don’t agree. There are huge economic disparities,” he said.

Henri, who declined to give his full name, said there was significant looting, with the situation most dangerous at night.

The French government has said the change in voting rules was needed so elections would be democratic.

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But it said it would not rush calling a special congress of the two houses of parliament to rubber-stamp the bill and has invited pro- and anti-independence camps for talks in Paris on the future of the island, opening the door to a potential suspension of the bill.

The major pro-independence political group, Front de Liberation Nationale Kanak et Socialiste (FLNKS), which condemned the violence, said it would accept the offer of dialogue and was willing to work towards an agreement “that would allow New Caledonia to follow its path toward emancipation”.

Most residents were staying indoors.

Witness Garrido Navarro Kherachi said she moved to New Caledonia when she was eight years old, and has never been back to France. Although eligible to vote under the new rules, she says she won’t “out of respect for the Kanak people”.

“I don’t feel I know enough about the history of Caledonia and the struggle of the Kanak people to allow me to vote,” she said.

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