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Yellen warns of US default risk by early June, urges debt limit hike
U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said on Friday the United States will likely hit the $31.4 trillion statutory debt limit on Jan. 19, forcing the Treasury to launch extraordinary cash management measures that can likely prevent default until early June.
“Once the limit is reached, Treasury will need to start taking certain extraordinary measures to prevent the United States from defaulting on its obligations,” Yellen said in a letter to new Republican House of Representatives Speaker Kevin McCarthy and other congressional leaders.
She urged the lawmakers to act quickly to raise the debt ceiling to “protect the full faith and credit” of the United States.
“While Treasury is not currently able to provide an estimate of how long extraordinary measures will enable us to continue to pay the government s obligations, it is unlikely that cash and extraordinary measures will be exhausted before early June,” the letter said.
Republicans now in control of the House have threatened to use the debt ceiling as leverage to demand spending cuts from Democrats and the Biden administration. This has raised concerns in Washington and on Wall Street about a bruising fight over the debt ceiling this year that could be at least as disruptive as the protracted battle of 2011, which prompted a brief downgrade of the U.S. credit rating and years of forced domestic and military spending cuts.
The White House said on Friday after Yellen s letter that it will not negotiate over raising the debt ceiling.
“This should be done without conditions,” White House spokesperson Karine Jean-Pierre told reporters. “There’s going to be no negotiation over it.”
House Republicans are planning to move a “debt prioritization” measure by the end of March that would call on the U.S. Treasury to continue making certain payments once it reaches the debt ceiling, but details have not been finalized, a person familiar with the plan told Reuters. The proposal was first reported by the Washington Post.
The Republican plan will call on the Treasury Department to keep making interest payments on the debt, the Post reported, citing sources. It may also stipulate the Treasury should continue making payments on Social Security, Medicare and veterans benefits, and fund the military, the newspaper said.
The plan was part of a private deal reached this month to resolve the standoff between right-wing hardliners in the House and McCarthy over his election as House speaker, the Post said.
Yellen s estimate expressing confidence that the government could pay its bills only through early June without increasing the limit marks a deadline considerably sooner than forecasts by some outside budget analysts that the government would exhaust its cash and borrowing capacity – the so called “X Date” – sometime in the third quarter of calendar 2023.
Analysts have noted that some Treasury bills maturing in the second half of the year are sporting a premium in their yields that may be tied to elevated risk of a default in that window.
“You could read this partly as trying to get Congress to act sooner rather than later,” said Bipartisan Policy Center economics director Shai Akabas, adding that Treasury was being conservative in its approach.
Yellen said that there was “considerable uncertainty” around the length of time that extraordinary measures could stave off default, due to a variety of factors, including the challenges of forecasting the government s payments and revenues months into the future.
PENSION INVESTMENTS SUSPENDED
As of Wednesday, Treasury data showed that US federal debt stood $78 billion below the limit, with a Treasury operating cash balance of $346.4 billion. The department on Thursday reported an $85 billion December deficit as revenues eased and outlays grew, particularly for debt interest costs.
Yellen said in her letter that the Treasury this month anticipates suspending new investments in two government retiree funds for pensions and healthcare, as well as suspending reinvestments in the Government Securities Investment Fund, or G Fund, part of a savings plan for federal employees. The retirement investments are restored once the debt ceiling is raised.
“The use of extraordinary measures enables the government to meet its obligations for only a limited amount of time,” Yellen wrote to McCarthy and other congressional leaders.
“It is therefore critical that Congress act in a timely manner to increase or suspend the debt limit. Failure to meet the government’s obligations would cause irreparable harm to the U.S. economy, the livelihoods of all Americans, and global financial stability,” Yellen wrote.
The dollar steadied against major peers on Thursday, continuing its near paralysis of the past two days before more concrete announcements on tariffs from U.S. President Donald Trump.
A spate of central bank policy decisions are also due over the next week, with the Bank of Japan widely expected to raise interest rates at the end of a two-day meeting on Friday.
Rate decisions from the U.S. Federal Reserve and European Central Bank are scheduled for Wednesday and Thursday of next week, respectively.
The dollar index – which measures the currency versus six top rivals, including the euro and yen – was flat at 108.25, following two days of gains of around 0.1%.
On Monday, it tumbled 1.2%, its steepest one-day slide since November 2023, as Trump’s first day in office brought a barrage of executive orders, but none on tariffs.
So far this week, Trump has mooted levies of around 25% on Canada and Mexico and 10% on China from Feb. 1. He also promised duties on European imports, without giving details.
“President Trump has so far taken a less hostile-than-expected approach to China,” amid overall “softer-than-expected policies and tone on tariffs”, said Carol Kong, a currency strategist at Commonwealth Bank of Australia.
At the same time, “we are cautious (that) risk sentiment remains fragile and can quickly turn sour if President Trump strikes a more aggressive tone.”
The Chinese yuan was little changed at 7.2812 per dollar in offshore trading .
Wall Street’s main indexes rose Wednesday, with the S&P 500 hitting an intraday record high thanks to strong Netflix earnings and a rally in tech shares.
Japan’s yen edged up about 0.1% to 156.40 with markets pricing 95% odds of a quarter-point hike on Friday.
The euro was flat at $1.0411. The ECB is widely expected to cut rates by a quarter point next week.
The Canadian dollar held steady at C$1.4386 against the greenback. The Bank of Canada is seen as likely to reduce rates by a quarter point next Wednesday.
The Mexican peso was little changed at 20.47 versus the U.S. currency.
Oil prices dipped in early trade on Thursday, extending losses amid uncertainty over how proposed tariffs by U.S. President Donald Trump on several countries would impact global economic growth and energy demand.
Brent crude futures fell 23 cents, or 0.3%, to $78.79 a barrel at 0135 GMT, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude (WTI) eased 18 cents, or 0.2%, to $75.26.
In its previous session, Brent futures settled at $79.00 in a fifth straight day of losses. WTI futures settled at $75.44 in a fourth consecutive day of declines.
Trump has said he would add new tariffs to his sanctions threat against Russia if the country does not make a deal to end its war in Ukraine. He added these could be applied to “other participating countries” as well.
He also vowed to hit the European Union with tariffs, impose 25% tariffs against Canada and Mexico, and said his administration was discussing a 10% punitive duty on China because fentanyl is being sent to the U.S. from there.
Meanwhile, estimates from an extended Reuters poll showed that on average U.S. crude oil stockpiles were expected to have fallen by 1.6 million barrels in the week to Jan. 17.
Gasoline stockpiles were estimated to have risen by 2.3 million barrels last week, and distillate inventories were likely to have gained 300,000 barrels.
The poll was conducted ahead of the American Petroleum Institute industry group’s report and another from the Energy Information Administration at 12:00 p.m. ET (1700 GMT) on Thursday.
European wind shares fell on Tuesday (January 21).
The reports were delayed by a day due to the Martin Luther King Jr. Day federal holiday on Monday.
Pakistan and Saudi Arabia have reaffirmed their commitment to further strengthening the bilateral economic ties for shared prosperity.
The commitment was expressed when Finance Minister Muhammad Aurangzeb met with his Saudi counterpart Mohammad bin Abdullah Al-Jadaan on the sidelines of World Economic Forum Annual Meeting in Davos.
Muhammad Aurangzeb highlighted the key reform measures undertaken by the Government to promote economic stability and sustainable growth.
He briefed him on structural reforms, fiscal discipline and regulatory improvements that have contributed to an improved investment climate in Pakistan.
Earlier, Aurangzeb met Anna Bjerde, Managing Director of Operations at the World Bank.
They discussed cooperation between Pakistan and the World Bank, with a particular focus on Pakistan’s macroeconomic stability.
The finance minister emphasized the government’s strong partnership with the Bank and expressed hope that the World Bank would continue playing a key role in the country’s socio-economic development.
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