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US reports blowout job growth; unemployment rate lowest since 1969

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US reports blowout job growth; unemployment rate lowest since 1969

US job growth accelerated sharply in January while the unemployment rate hit more than a 53-1/2-year low of 3.4%, pointing to a stubbornly tight labor market, and a potential headache for Federal Reserve officials as they fight inflation.

The Labor Department’s closely watched employment report on Friday also showed job creation in the past year was much stronger than previously estimated, suggesting the economy was nowhere near a recession. Though wage inflation cooled further in January, average hourly earnings increased faster in 2022 than previously estimated.

The strength in hiring, which occurred despite layoffs in the technology sector as well as in sectors like housing and finance that are sensitive to interest rates, poured cold water on market expectations that the US central bank was close to pausing its monetary policy tightening cycle.

Economists said the head-scratching report and other data on Friday showing a sharp rebound in services industry activity last month suggested the Fed could lift its target interest rate above the recently projected 5.1% peak and keep it there for some time.

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“The labor market is still running hot, too hot for the Fed’s liking,” said Daniel Vernazza, chief international economist at UniCredit Bank in London. “Anyone that thought the Fed might stop hiking as soon as its March meeting is likely to be disappointed on this evidence.”

The survey of establishments showed nonfarm payrolls surged by 517,000 jobs last month, the most in six months. Economists in a Reuters poll had expected a gain of 185,000. Data for December was revised higher to show 260,000 jobs added instead of the previously reported 223,000. Employment growth last month was well above the monthly average of 401,000 in 2022.

With January’s report, the Labor Department’s Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) published its annual payrolls “benchmark” revision and updated the formulas it uses to smooth the data for regular seasonal fluctuations in the establishment survey.

The economy added 568,000 more jobs in the 12 months through March 2022 than previously reported. Revisions to payrolls data from April through December also showed more jobs created than previously estimated. The economy added 4.8 million jobs in 2022 instead of the 4.5 million previously reported.

The revisions dispelled claims by researchers at the Philadelphia Fed who published a paper in December suggesting employment growth in the second quarter of 2022 was overstated by about a million jobs.

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The BLS revised its industry classification system, which resulted in about 10% of employment reclassified into different industries. Last month’s broad increase in employment was led by the leisure and hospitality sector, which added 128,000 jobs, with 99,000 of them in restaurants and bars.

Leisure and hospitality employment remains 495,000 jobs below its pre-pandemic level. Professional and business services employment rose by 82,000, with temporary help jobs, a harbinger for future hiring, rebounding by 25,900 after declining for several months. Government payrolls jumped 74,000, boosted by the return of striking university workers in California.
Construction payrolls increased by 25,000 jobs, which were mostly among specialty trade contractors. Manufacturing employment rose by 19,000 jobs.

WAGE GROWTH SLOWS

Average hourly earnings increased 0.3% last month after gaining 0.4% in December. That lowered the year-on-year increase in wages to 4.4%, the smallest rise since August 2021, from 4.8% in December. But wage growth was revised up for 2022, suggesting only a moderate pace of cooling in wage inflation than previously thought. The average workweek increased to 34.7 hours from 34.4 hours in December.

“While it is natural to be skeptical of the degree of strength in payroll growth and the increase in total hours worked given the perceived slowing of growth, we have been pointing out that almost all the labor market indicators going into this report showed an improvement in labor market conditions,” said Conrad DeQuadros, senior economic advisor at Brean Capital in New York.

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President Joe Biden said the employment report was a sign that his economic plan was working. “Jobs are going up, inflation is going down,” the Democratic president wrote on Twitter.

The Fed on Wednesday raised its policy rate by 25 basis points to the 4.50%-4.75% range, and promised “ongoing increases” in borrowing costs. Government data this week showed there were 11 million job openings at the end of December, with 1.9 openings for every unemployed person.

The BLS also incorporated new population estimates in the household survey, from which the unemployment rate is derived. As such, the unemployment rate of 3.4%, the lowest since May 1969, is not comparable to December’s 3.5% rate, though it was not impacted by the new population controls.

Household employment jumped 894,000, but accounting for the new population estimates, the increase was only 84,000. About 886,000 people entered the labor force, though the number declined by 5,000 after adjusting for the population controls.

The labor force participation rate, or the proportion of working-age Americans who have a job or are looking for one, rose to 62.4% in January from 62.3% in December. It was unchanged after taking the new population estimates into account.

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The employment report hinted at a rebound in manufacturing production last month. There are also signs that retail sales got off to a strong start in 2023. The economy continued to show resilience despite 450 basis points of rate hikes since last March.

“The Fed would be well-served to consider this as a success and think that slowing down the pace of hikes, would allow the job market to bend, but maybe not break,” said Rick Rieder, chief investment officer of global fixed income at BlackRock in New York.

“Today presents good evidence of a job market not breaking and evidence of how the economy can adapt and adjust to remain vibrant in the face of major headwinds.”

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Dollar muted as traders await Fed rate decision

Dollar muted as traders await Fed rate decision

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Dollar muted as traders await Fed rate decision

The dollar was pinned near five-week lows on Wednesday ahead of the conclusion of the US Federal Reserve’s policy meeting, with investors awaiting clarity on the path the central bank is likely to take in the wake of global banking turmoil.

Investor attention is zeroed in on whether the Fed will stick to its hawkish path to fight sticky inflation or pause interest rate hikes given recent trouble among banks which has included bankruptcy and last-minute rescues.

The US dollar index, which measures the currency against six peers, was at 103.19, just above the five-week low of 102.99 touched overnight. The euro was at $1.0770, hovering around a five-week high of $1.0789 scaled overnight.

Markets are now pricing in about a 15% chance of the Fed not increasing rates, with a roughly 85% chance of a 25 basis point hike, showed the CME FedWatch tool. Just a month earlier, the market was pricing in a 24% chance of a 50 basis point hike.

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Investor sentiment remained fragile with worries over the outlook for the banking sector starting to ease after sharp volatility in the market in the past few weeks following high-profile U.S. banking failures earlier in the month and the rescue of lender Credit Suisse Group AG at the weekend.

“Markets are seemingly becoming more comfortable with the idea that authorities have probably done enough to prevent a systemic banking crisis,” said Rodrigo Catril, a senior currency strategist at National Australia Bank in Sydney.

“It might be early days, but the price action over the past 48 hours is certainly signalling a change in mood by investors.”

The Fed meeting concludes on Wednesday with the 2 pm EDT (1800 GMT) release of a policy statement followed half an hour later by a news conference by Chair Jerome Powell.

Catril said the Fed faces a difficult choice given a strong labour market alongside February inflation figures that were higher than many market watchers expected. Such circumstances would usually be ripe for a return to a 50 basis point hike were it not for worries over financial stability, he said.

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Christopher Wong, currency strategist at OCBC, said the focus will be on how the Fed communicates its forward guidance, in particular “the higher for longer” rhetoric.

“Ideally, we would like the Fed to go with a 25 basis point hike this meeting, tone down hawkish guidance and emphasize that policy decisions at subsequent meetings will continue to be data-dependent,” Wong said. “This wishlist should see dollar trade on the softer profile and risk proxies trade steadily.”

Meanwhile, the yen strengthened 0.04% to 132.47 per dollar, whereas sterling was last trading at $1.2233, up 0.16% on the day.

The Australian dollar rose 0.36% to $0.6694, while the New Zealand dollar gained 0.11% to $0.6199.

In cryptocurrencies, bitcoin last rose 0.44% to $28,276.58, but was below a nine-month peak it touched on Monday.

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Sui Northern to take special initiatives to ensure uninterrupted gas supply in Ramzan

Sui Northern to take special initiatives to ensure uninterrupted gas supply in Ramzan

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Sui Northern to take special initiatives to ensure uninterrupted gas supply in Ramzan

Sui Northern Gas has announced special initiatives to ensure uninterrupted gas supply to its consumers during the holy month of Ramzan.

The company will be undertaking immediate measures to ensure gas supply with full pressure. SNGPL spokesperson, in a statement, said that domestic consumers will be ensured gas supply with full pressure particularly between 2:30 to 6am and 4 to 9pm.

Spokesperson also stated that company will also ensure natural gas supply other than the mentioned timings. SNGPL has also constituted monitoring teams for immediate resolution of complaints regarding gas pressure.

Additionally monitoring room is being established for gas supply related complaints. SNGPL has requested consumers to consume natural gas wisely during the month of Ramzan.

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Bitcoin climbs to 9-month high as bank turmoil sparks rally

Bitcoin climbs to 9-month high as bank turmoil sparks rally

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Bitcoin climbs to 9-month high as bank turmoil sparks rally

 Bitcoin climbed to a nine-month high on Monday as turmoil in the banking sector drives some investors to turn to digital assets, as the cryptocurrency built on its best week in four years.

The biggest cryptocurrency rose as far as $28,567, its highest since mid-June, and was last up 0.9%, amid growing expectations that central banks would slow the pace of interest rate hikes.

Bitcoin rose 26% last week, its best weekly gain since April 2019, and has soared some 40% in 10 days as turmoil in the banking sector rippled around the globe – culminating, so far, in UBS Group’s takeover of rival Credit Suisse Group AG over the weekend.

Traditional assets such as banking stocks and bonds plummeted on Monday after UBS sealed its state-backed takeover of Credit Suisse, a deal orchestrated in an attempt to restore confidence in a battered sector.

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Top central banks, faced with the risk of a fast-moving loss of confidence in the stability of the financial system, moved on Sunday to bolster the flow of cash around the world. Such a global response has not seen since the height of the COVID-19 pandemic.

“Its stunning rally is the result of the banking crisis, and as the interest rate markets prices in rate cuts in the second half of 2023,” said Tony Sycamore, an analyst at IG Markets, predicting a move towards $32,000 should bitcoin hold above the key support level about $25,000.

Other market players predicted that bitcoin would benefit from central bank efforts to bolster liquidity in the global financial system. It rose to a record of $69,000 in November 2021 after central banks and governments launched unprecedented monetary and fiscal stimulus measures.

“The momentum is all driven by liquidity,” said Markus Thielson at digital asset firm Matrixport in Singapore.

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