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Slower China factory activity growth challenges economic recovery prospects

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China’s manufacturing activity expanded at a slower pace in March, official data showed on Friday, raising doubts about the strength of a post-COVID factory recovery amid weaker global demand and a property market downturn.

The services sector was stronger, with activity expanding at the fastest pace in nearly 12 years after the end of China’s zero-COVID policy in December boosted transportation, accommodation and construction.

The official manufacturing purchasing managers’ index (PMI) stood at 51.9, against 52.6 in February, according to data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), above the 50-point mark that separates expansion and contraction in activity on a monthly basis.

That slightly exceeded expectations of 51.5 tipped by economists in a Reuters poll, and led to the yuan strengthening against the dollar. The February figure had grown at the fastest pace in more than a decade.

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China’s economic activity picked up in the first two months of 2023 as consumption and infrastructure investment drove a recovery after the end of COVID-19 disruptions and retail sales swung back to growth.

Nomura economists said the strong data suggested China’s economy had reached a “sweet spot” after the end of property tightening measures and the zero-COVID policy.

“However, amid rapidly worsening geopolitical tensions and financial concerns outside of China, this may not last long,” they added in a note.

Exports remain weak and new home sales continue to fall, although the rate of decline is narrowing.

Companies face challenges including weak demand, tight availability of capital and high operating costs, and the foundations for an economic rebound need to be further consolidated, NBS said in an accompanying statement.

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To support the rebound, China’s central bank this month unexpectedly cut the amount of cash that banks must hold as reserves for the first time this year.

While business and consumer sentiment is starting to pick up, the manufacturing sector remains under pressure amid sluggish global demand and stubbornly high costs.

Any fallout from a recent crisis of confidence in the global banking sector could also affect demand for China’s goods, adding to pressure on manufacturers.

Official data this week showed the slump in Chinese industrial firms’ profits deepened in the first two months of the year, marking a downbeat start to the recovery.

Factory activity was hit by slowing growth in production and customer demand, with the output and new orders sub-indexes showing declines from February’s levels.

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The new export order sub-index fell to 50.4 against 52.4 in February, pointing to lacklustre external demand.

STRONG RECOVERY IN SERVICES ACTIVITY

In contrast the non-manufacturing PMI jumped to 58.2 versus 56.3 in February, reaching the highest level since May 2011 as the services sector recovered.

“The strong momentum will likely continue in the coming months, as the new order index for the service sector continued to rise,” said Zhiwei Zhang, president and chief economist at Pinpoint Asset Management.

Retail sales in the first two months jumped 3.5% from a year before, reversing a 1.8% annual fall seen in December, raising hopes of an economic revival led by consumption as flagging global demand weakens exports.

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The government’s softening tone toward the private sector is also boosting market confidence.

Alibaba Group founder Jack Ma’s return and the firm’s plans for a major revamp have been taken as a signal that Beijing’s regulatory crackdown on private business is ending.

“These policy actions will help the economy to keep the strong momentum. We think GDP growth may surpass 6% this year,” Zhang said.

The world’s second-biggest economy set a modest target for economic growth this year of around 5% after it cooled to only 3% last year, one of the weakest showings in nearly half a century.

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Over 70pc global workforce faces climate change risks: ILO

Over 70pc global workforce faces climate change risks: ILO

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Over 70pc global workforce faces climate change risks: ILO

More than 70 per cent of the global workforce is exposed to risks linked to climate change that cause hundreds of thousands of deaths each year, the International Labour Organisation (ILO) said on Monday, adding governments would need to act as the numbers rise.

Workers, especially the world’s poorest, are more vulnerable than the general population to the dangers of climate extremes [extreme weather events] such as heatwaves, droughts, wildfires, and hurricanes because they are often the first exposed, or exposed for longer periods and at greater intensity.

Read more: Heat, disease, air pollution: How climate change impacts health

As climate change accelerates, governments and employers are struggling to protect employees, the ILO said in a report.

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“A staggering number of workers are already being exposed to climate change-related hazards in the workplace, and these figures are only likely to get worse,” the report entitled “Ensuring safety and health at work in a changing climate” said in its conclusions.

“As (the hazards) evolve and intensify, it will be necessary to re-evaluate existing legislation or create new regulations and guidance.”

Some countries have improved heat protections for workers, such as Qatar, whose policies came under scrutiny ahead of the 2022 soccer World Cup.

However, rules to govern other dangers like growing pesticide use for agricultural workers are less common.

Read more more: Climate change affecting women, especially those working in agri sector, disproportionally in countries like Pakistan

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“We do have some (countries) that already limit exposure to high temperatures and also limit exposure to air pollution, but we rarely have occupational exposure limits set for the other hazards,” said Manal Azzi, ILO Senior Specialist on occupational safety and health.

Read more: Lahore and Chingchi effects: Noise at workplace has serious effects on your health

The share of global workers exposed to the most widespread hazard, rising temperatures, has risen by around 5 percentage points over the last two decades to 70.9 per cent, the report said,

Other climate dangers often co-exist, creating a “cocktail of hazards,” the report said, with UV radiation and air pollution each affecting 1.6 billion people.

Read more: Climate change hits Asia hardest, below-normal rains in Hindu Kush range of Pakistan: UN

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Because a worker is likely to be exposed to multiple dangers at once, an ILO spokesperson said it was impossible to calculate exactly what portion of the 3.4 billion global workforce was at risk.

Climate-related hazards are being linked to a cancer, kidney dysfunction, and respiratory illnesses, leading to deaths or debilitating chronic conditions or disabilities.

Air pollution is the most deadly risk, causing some 860,000 work-related deaths among outdoor workers annually, the ILO report said. Excessive heat causes 18,970 occupational deaths each year and UV radiation kills 18,960 through non melanoma skin cancer, it said.

Read more: Pakistan among six nations bearing the brunt of pollution health burden

“The greatest impacts will be felt by the working poor, those working in the informal economy, seasonal workers and workers in micro and small enterprises,” the report said.

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In some cases, the very technologies meant to slow climate change like solar panels and lithium-ion batteries for electric vehicles can end up producing new dangers since they contain toxic chemicals, it said.

The ILO plans a major meeting in 2025 of government, employer and worker representatives to provide policy guidance on climate hazards.

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India sugar demand surges in heatwave and election season

India sugar demand surges in heatwave and election season

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India sugar demand surges in heatwave and election season

 Indian sugar consumption this year is poised to hit a record high as demand during the peak summer season gets a boost from heatwaves and the mobilisation of millions for elections in the scorching temperatures.

Higher consumption would lift local prices and boost margins of sugar producers such as Balrampur Chini, Shree Renuka Sugars, Bajaj Hindusthan and Dwarikesh Sugar, and help them in making cane payments on time to farmers.

Consumption of cold drinks and ice cream, and as a result demand for sugar, rises in India during the summer months roughly from mid-March to mid-June.

But this year demand is above average as heatwaves and election rallies boost consumption of ice-cream and soft drinks, said Avantika Saraogi, executive director at Balrampur Chini Mills.

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Maximum temperatures in many parts of India have risen above 40 degrees Celsius, and the weather department has forecasted that the country is likely to experience more heatwave days than normal between April and June.

Read more: India braces for heatwaves with impact seen on inflation, election 

During the harsh summer, India is hosting the world’s largest election, in which nearly a billion people will be eligible to vote.

Political parties hold huge rallies, some attended by as many as 200,000 people, undeterred by the sweltering heat, which only intensifies as the campaign picks up pace.

Earlier this week, following an energetic election rally at Pune in the scorching afternoon sun, dedicated workers of a political party flocked to a nearby restaurant to quench their thirst with refreshing soft drinks.

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“It’s sweltering out there. We need something icy to keep us going in this heat,” said Mahesh Pawar, one of the workers.

“We’re grateful to our leader for providing us with these refreshing beverages to keep our spirits high.”

SWEET SUMMER

Indian sugar consumption in during April-June could rise to 7.5 million tons, up 5 per cent from a year ago, said a Mumbai-based dealer with a global trade house.

This year’s unusual rise in consumption is temporary, with demand growth returning to a normal pace next year, said Prakash Naiknavare, managing director of the National Federation of Cooperative Sugar Factories Ltd.

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“But right now the industry is experiencing an unusual boost in demand. This is expected to lift total consumption this year to a record 29 million metric tons,” Naiknavare said.

India’s sugar consumption in the 2022-23 marketing year, which ended on Sept 30, stood at 27.85 million tons.

Higher demand has already begun lifting sugar prices, which have risen nearly 3pc in a fortnight.

The government has allocated a higher quota for April compared to last year, but prices are still rising due to robust demand from bulk consumers, said Ashok Jain, president of the Bombay Sugar Merchants Association.

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Refineries against fuel price deregulation which Ogra says will boost competition

Refineries against fuel price deregulation which Ogra says will boost competition

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Refineries against fuel price deregulation which Ogra says will boost competition

Pakistan’s plans to deregulate fuel prices could lead refiners to halt planned upgrades worth up to $6 billion and force some refineries to close, some of the country’s top refiners said in a letter to the country’s oil regulator.

Looking to drive down prices for consumers, the South Asian nation’s Oil & Gas Regulatory Authority (Ogra) has proposed that oil marketers and refineries be allowed to set fuel prices, instead of the government setting prices.

As part of the change, Ogra proposed scrapping or reviewing a rule that requires fuel buyers to purchase supply from local refineries, another issue the refiners said could result in “disastrous consequences”.

The refiners – state-run Pakistan Refinery and private domestic refiners Pak Arab Refinery, Attock Refinery, Cnergyico and National Refinery – said they were already struggling to operate near full capacity, and asked that they be consulted before the implementation of “irrational recommendations”.

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“The refining sector requires Ogra support through pragmatic and supportive measures, rather than suggesting ways that if implemented would result in their permanent closure,” the refiners told Ogra on Monday in a letter, which was reviewed by Reuters.

The deregulation was aimed at boosting competition and protecting the public interest, Ogra told Reuters in a statement on Tuesday, but did not respond to specific questions on the letter from the refiners. However, it said in an April 17 presentation reviewed by Reuters the potential impact of deregulation on refinery upgrades had to be assessed carefully, calling it a challenge.

“The refineries upgradation will bring in investment of $5-6 billion and not only result in cleaner environment-friendly fuels but also result in savings of precious foreign exchange of the country,” the refiners wrote in the letter to Ogra. 

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