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Russia risks cloud outlook for Central Asia, Caucasus: IMF

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Economic growth in Central Asia and the Caucasus will depend on how Russia’s economy performs in the face of Western sanctions, as well as global monetary conditions, an International Monetary Fund official in charge of the region told Reuters on Thursday.

Russia, hit by sanctions over its invasion of Ukraine, is a key trading partner for many of the former Soviet republic in the region, and also a key destination for millions of Central Asian migrant labourers.

The region outperformed initial forecasts last year, growing 4.8% as remittances from Russia jumped on a strong rouble and foreign trade grew, thanks in part to the diversion of some Russian imports to neighbouring countries.

“It was a great year, and for this year, in 2023, we are projecting a modest slowdown to 4.2% or so,” Subir Lall, deputy director of the IMF’s Middle East and Central Asia Department, said. “But it is a time of high uncertainty, so things do can change around a little bit.”

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Downside risks dominate the outlook, he said, one of them being heightened global financial turbulence resulting in greater monetary tightening which could affect commodity prices and increase borrowing costs.

“Another external risk for the region is the war in Ukraine,” Lall said. “And if sanctions were to be tightened, or there were to be a new wave of sanctions, that could lead to volatility in commodity markets, shortages, new price pressures for energy and food, fertilizers, possibly.”

“In addition, of course, if there is a sharp contraction in Russia that’s not in the baseline, or bad harvest, that could also be an external risk to the outlook.”

The third key risk, Lall said, is fragmentation.

“If geopolitical tensions and sanctions undermine international cooperation and constraint, crossborder flows of payments, and labor and capital, that could have a disruptive impact,” he said.

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Aside from being a major trade partner, Russia is also an important transit nation for many export goods from Central Asia, although the West is promoting greater use of an alternative route through the Caspian and the Caucasus.

“I think to some extent how the region benefits or pivots away from its excessive reliance on trade with Russia or Russian growth will depend in part on how policymakers are able to take advantage of the opportunity,” Lall said.

“This is a moment to step back and think about greater integration with the global economy, not just China, but actually more globally, including other regions, South Asia, the Middle East, these are all opportunities, because the Caucasus and Central Asia location is in a way at the intersection of three continents.” 

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India votes in third phase of elections as Modi escalates rhetoric against Muslims

India votes in third phase of elections as Modi escalates rhetoric against Muslims

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India votes in third phase of elections as Modi escalates rhetoric against Muslims

Millions of Indian voters across 93 constituencies were casting ballots on Tuesday as Prime Minister Narendra Modi mounted an increasingly shrill election campaign, ramping up polarizing rhetoric in incendiary speeches that have targeted the Muslim minority.

In recent campaign rallies, Modi has called Muslims “infiltrators” and said they “have too many children,” referring to a Hindu nationalist trope that Muslims produce more children with the aim of outnumbering Hindus in India. He has also accused the rival Indian National Congress party of scheming to “loot” wealth from the country’s Hindus and redistribute it among Muslims, who comprise 14% of India’s more than 1.4 billion people.

Tuesday’s polling in the third round of multi-phase national elections has crucial seats up for grabs in states including Karnataka, Gujarat and Uttar Pradesh. Most polls predict a win for Modi and his Bharatiya Janata Party, which is up against a broad opposition alliance led by the Congress and powerful regional parties. The staggered election will run until June 1 and votes will be counted on June 4.

Modi, who voted in western Ahmedabad city on Tuesday, had kicked off his campaign with a focus on economic progress, promising he would make India a developed nation by 2047. But in recent weeks, he and the ruling BJP have doubled down heavily on their Hindu nationalism platform, with Modi employing some of his most divisive rhetoric in his decade in power.

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Analysts say the change in tone comes as the BJP aims to clinch a supermajority or two-thirds of the 543 seats up for grabs in India’s lower Parliament by consolidating votes among the majority Hindu population, who make up 80%. They say Modi’s party is also ratcheting up polarizing speeches to distract voters from larger issues, like unemployment and economic distress, that the opposition has focused on.

While India’s economy is among the world’s fastest growing, many people face growing economic stress. The opposition alliance hopes to tap into this discontent, seeking to galvanize voters on issues like high unemployment, inflation, corruption and low agricultural prices, which have driven two years of farmers’ protests.

“The mask has dropped, and I think it is political compulsions that have made them do this,” said Ali Khan Mahmudabad, a political science professor at New Delhi’s Ashoka University.

Changes in the BJP’s campaign may also be a sign of anxiety around low voter turnout it had not anticipated, Mahmudabad said. Voter turnout in the first two phases have been slightly lower than the same rounds in the last election in 2019, according to official data.

“In recent elections, the BJP’s wins have been associated with getting the voters out (to vote),” Mahmudabad said. “There may be some fatigue, anti-incumbency or even disenchantment,” which has led the BJP to escalate their rhetoric.

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Others in Modi’s party have echoed his remarks. A recent video posted by the BJP on Instagram was more direct. The animated campaign video, which has since been taken down from the social media platform, said if the Congress party comes to power, it will take money and wealth from non-Muslims and redistribute it to Muslims.

The Congress party and other political opponents have characterized Modi’s remarks as “hate speech” that could fan religious tensions. They have also filed complaints with India’s election commission, which is overseeing the polls, for breaching rules that ban candidates from appealing to “caste or communal feelings” to secure votes.

The commission can issue warnings and suspend candidates for a period of time over violations of the code of conduct, but it has issued no warnings to Modi so far.

Modi’s critics say India’s tradition of diversity and secularism has come under attack since the prime minister and his party rose to power a decade ago. While there have long been tensions between India’s majority Hindu community and Muslims, rights groups say that attacks against minorities have become more brazen under Modi.

The party denies the accusation and says its policies benefit all Indians.

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Mahmudabad, the political scientist, said Modi’s party had counted on getting votes from the fervor over a Hindu temple that was built atop a razed mosque that Modi opened in January. Many saw the glitzy spectacle as the unofficial start of his election campaign.

“Instead, people are talking about inflation, unemployment and economic distress,” Mahmudabad said. “And so in order to galvanize and consolidate their vote, the BJP has raised the specter of Muslims.”

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Another IHC judge seeks contempt proceedings over smear campaign

Another IHC judge seeks contempt proceedings over smear campaign

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Another IHC judge seeks contempt proceedings over smear campaign

Following Justice Babar Sattar’s request, Justice Mohsin Akhtar Kayani has also written a letter to the Islamabad High Court chief justice requesting initiation of contempt proceedings over a malicious smear campaign being run against him on social media.

According to sources, Justice Kayani has forwarded his request to IHC Chief Justice Amer Farooq.

Sources say that a bench is likely to be constituted today based on the requests made by Justice Babar Sattar and Justice Mohsin Akhtar Kayani in response to the slur campaigns launched against them on social media platforms.

On Monday, Justice Babar Sattar wrote a letter to the IHC chief justice to launch contempt proceedings against those who breached his and his family’s privacy by sharing details, including their US residence permits, online.

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Sattar pointed out that identity cards and permanent residency cards of his family members were uploaded to social media.

Earlier on Sunday, the IHC public relations office issued a statement in response to the social media campaign, terming it “malicious and contemptuous”.

The campaigner accused the judge of hiding assets in both Pakistan and the United States.

“Justice Babar Sattar has never had any nationality other than that of Pakistan,” the IHC clarified.

“Justice Sattar worked as a lawyer in New York and was granted a green card, but left his job in the US in 2005 and returned to Pakistan and has lived and worked in Pakistan since then”.

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Not going to impose governor’s rule in KP: Faisal Karim Kundi

Not going to impose governor’s rule in KP: Faisal Karim Kundi

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Not going to impose governor's rule in KP: Faisal Karim Kundi

Governor Khyber Pakhtunkhwa Faisal Karim Kundi said on Tuesday that governor’s rule was not being imposed in the province.

Talking to media after visiting the Mazar-e-Quaid in Karachi, Kundi said he would try to become voice of the people of Khyber Pakhtunkhw. “I will fight the case of people of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa in Islamabad,” he said.

The KP governor said he would like to distribute love instead of spreading hatred among people. Governor Khyber Pakhtunkhwa said, “Everyone in Pakistan is a free citizen, there is a Constitution and law in Pakistan.”

“If the Chief Minister of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa marches on Islamabad, he will go to somewhere else. Such a stand should not be adopted to hide one’s incompetence and negligence,” said Kundi.

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He said the KP chief minister had a clear majority, so why he was afraid of convening the assembly session.

“You cannot take your right by taking to streets. I will strengthen the case of my province. I am ready to go to every political figure in the province for that purpose,” Kundi added.

He said serious people should come forward and hold negotiations. Kundi said he would not give tough time to provincial government.

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