Business
Oil prices fall on stronger dollar, demand fears
Oil prices settled more than 1% lower on Friday, falling for the third consecutive week, as the market balanced supply fears against renewed economic concerns in the United States and China.
Brent crude futures settled down 81 cents, or 1.1%, to $74.17 while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) U.S. crude futures fell 83 cents, or 1.2%, to $70.04.
Both benchmarks settled about 1.5% lower week on week.
The U.S. dollar clung to modest gains against the euro on Friday and was headed for its biggest weekly gain since February, as uncertainty around the U.S. debt ceiling and monetary policy prompted a shift to safe havens.
A stronger greenback makes dollar-priced oil more expensive for holders of other currencies.
“Lack of confidence in the economy is translating to a retreat to the safer dollar, and is also causing pessimism about oil demand,” said John Kilduff, partner at Again Capital LLC in New York.
Concern mounted that the United States – the world’s biggest oil consumer – will enter recession, with talks over the U.S. government’s debt ceiling postponed and concern growing over another crisis-hit regional bank.
The U.S. Federal Reserve will probably need to raise interest rates further if inflation stays high, Fed Governor Michelle Bowman said on Friday, adding that data this month has not convinced her that price pressures are receding.
Meanwhile, China’s April consumer price data rose at a slower pace than in March, missing expectations, while deepening factory gate deflation refocused doubts about its recovery from COVID restrictions driving oil demand growth.
The U.S. oil and natural gas rig count fell this week to its lowest in nearly a year, as gas rigs slumped by the most in a week since February 2016, energy services firm Baker Hughes Co (BKR.O) said in its closely followed report on Friday.
U.S. oil rigs fell by two to 586 this week, their lowest since June 2022, while gas rigs plunged by 16 to 141, their lowest April last year.
The market drew some support from the forecast emerging supply deficit for the second half of the year, even as Iraq’s oil minister Hayan Abdel-Ghani told Reuters on Friday he does not expect OPEC+ to decide on further production cuts when it next meets in Vienna on June 4.
An OPEC report on Thursday said the producer group expects July-December demand for its own crude to be 90,000 barrels per day (bpd) higher than previously projected.
The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) kept its global oil demand forecast for 2023 unchanged on Thursday, expecting economic risks to be offset by higher Chinese demand growth.
The market also drew support after U.S. energy secretary Jennifer Granholm signalled that the country could repurchase oil for the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) after completing a congressionally mandated sale next month.
Business
Dollar treads water as Trump tariff clarity, central banks awaited
The dollar steadied against major peers on Thursday, continuing its near paralysis of the past two days before more concrete announcements on tariffs from U.S. President Donald Trump.
A spate of central bank policy decisions are also due over the next week, with the Bank of Japan widely expected to raise interest rates at the end of a two-day meeting on Friday.
Rate decisions from the U.S. Federal Reserve and European Central Bank are scheduled for Wednesday and Thursday of next week, respectively.
The dollar index – which measures the currency versus six top rivals, including the euro and yen – was flat at 108.25, following two days of gains of around 0.1%.
On Monday, it tumbled 1.2%, its steepest one-day slide since November 2023, as Trump’s first day in office brought a barrage of executive orders, but none on tariffs.
So far this week, Trump has mooted levies of around 25% on Canada and Mexico and 10% on China from Feb. 1. He also promised duties on European imports, without giving details.
“President Trump has so far taken a less hostile-than-expected approach to China,” amid overall “softer-than-expected policies and tone on tariffs”, said Carol Kong, a currency strategist at Commonwealth Bank of Australia.
At the same time, “we are cautious (that) risk sentiment remains fragile and can quickly turn sour if President Trump strikes a more aggressive tone.”
The Chinese yuan was little changed at 7.2812 per dollar in offshore trading .
Wall Street’s main indexes rose Wednesday, with the S&P 500 hitting an intraday record high thanks to strong Netflix earnings and a rally in tech shares.
Japan’s yen edged up about 0.1% to 156.40 with markets pricing 95% odds of a quarter-point hike on Friday.
The euro was flat at $1.0411. The ECB is widely expected to cut rates by a quarter point next week.
The Canadian dollar held steady at C$1.4386 against the greenback. The Bank of Canada is seen as likely to reduce rates by a quarter point next Wednesday.
The Mexican peso was little changed at 20.47 versus the U.S. currency.
Business
Oil prices extend losses amid uncertainty over tariff impact
Oil prices dipped in early trade on Thursday, extending losses amid uncertainty over how proposed tariffs by U.S. President Donald Trump on several countries would impact global economic growth and energy demand.
Brent crude futures fell 23 cents, or 0.3%, to $78.79 a barrel at 0135 GMT, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude (WTI) eased 18 cents, or 0.2%, to $75.26.
In its previous session, Brent futures settled at $79.00 in a fifth straight day of losses. WTI futures settled at $75.44 in a fourth consecutive day of declines.
Trump has said he would add new tariffs to his sanctions threat against Russia if the country does not make a deal to end its war in Ukraine. He added these could be applied to “other participating countries” as well.
He also vowed to hit the European Union with tariffs, impose 25% tariffs against Canada and Mexico, and said his administration was discussing a 10% punitive duty on China because fentanyl is being sent to the U.S. from there.
Meanwhile, estimates from an extended Reuters poll showed that on average U.S. crude oil stockpiles were expected to have fallen by 1.6 million barrels in the week to Jan. 17.
Gasoline stockpiles were estimated to have risen by 2.3 million barrels last week, and distillate inventories were likely to have gained 300,000 barrels.
The poll was conducted ahead of the American Petroleum Institute industry group’s report and another from the Energy Information Administration at 12:00 p.m. ET (1700 GMT) on Thursday.
European wind shares fell on Tuesday (January 21).
The reports were delayed by a day due to the Martin Luther King Jr. Day federal holiday on Monday.
Business
Pakistan, Saudi Arabia reaffirm commitment to boost economic ties
Pakistan and Saudi Arabia have reaffirmed their commitment to further strengthening the bilateral economic ties for shared prosperity.
The commitment was expressed when Finance Minister Muhammad Aurangzeb met with his Saudi counterpart Mohammad bin Abdullah Al-Jadaan on the sidelines of World Economic Forum Annual Meeting in Davos.
Muhammad Aurangzeb highlighted the key reform measures undertaken by the Government to promote economic stability and sustainable growth.
He briefed him on structural reforms, fiscal discipline and regulatory improvements that have contributed to an improved investment climate in Pakistan.
Earlier, Aurangzeb met Anna Bjerde, Managing Director of Operations at the World Bank.
They discussed cooperation between Pakistan and the World Bank, with a particular focus on Pakistan’s macroeconomic stability.
The finance minister emphasized the government’s strong partnership with the Bank and expressed hope that the World Bank would continue playing a key role in the country’s socio-economic development.
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