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UK’s stubborn inflation fails to fall, turning up heat on Bank of England

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UK's stubborn inflation fails to fall, turning up heat on Bank of England

 British inflation defied expectations of a slowdown to hold at 8.7 per cent in May, putting yet more pressure on the Bank of England a day before it is predicted to raise interest rates for the 13th time in a row to tame stubborn price growth.

Markets increased their bets on further rate rises following Wednesday’s official figures, which showed underlying inflation rose to its highest since 1992.

The headline figure means British inflation is once again the fastest of any major advanced economy.

The numbers are also uncomfortable for Prime Minister Rishi Sunak – who has pledged to halve inflation over the course of this year before a probable 2024 election – and are likely to increase mortgage costs for millions of homeowners.

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Economists polled by Reuters had forecast that the annual consumer price inflation rate would drop to 8.4pc in May, moving further away from October’s 41-year high of 11.1pc.

“May’s CPI figures ratchet up the pressure on the Monetary Policy Committee to increase Bank Rate substantially further over the coming months,” Samuel Tombs, chief UK economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, said.

Sterling briefly jumped against the US dollar and the euro after the figures were released and two-year government bond yields – which are sensitive to interest rate expectations – rose to their highest since July 2008.

Markets now see a 40pc chance that the BoE will raise interest rates by half a percentage point to 5pc on Thursday, rather than the quarter-point move previously expected. They see a 60pc chance of rates reaching 6pc by December.

“Today’s figures strengthen the case for the government to stick to its guns,” finance minister Jeremy Hunt told reporters.

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“If you look at what’s happening in other countries, you can see that rises in interest rates do bring down inflation over time, that will happen here,” he added.

British inflation started to pick up in 2021, when many economies faced supply-chain bottlenecks as they emerged from the COVID-19 pandemic, and accelerated sharply after Russia invaded Ukraine in February 2022, sending natural gas prices soaring across Europe.

Inflation has been slower to fall in Britain than elsewhere, however, partly due to the timing of energy subsidies, but increasingly too as a result of big price rises apparently becoming embedded across swathes of the economy.

The Office for National Statistics said core inflation – a measure which excludes volatile food, energy, alcohol and tobacco prices, and which the BoE views as a good guide to underlying price pressures – unexpectedly rose to 7.1pc from 6.8pc, its highest since March 1992.

Another measure of underlying pressures, services price inflation, which is heavily influenced by fast-rising wages and Britain’s tight post-pandemic job market – also reached its highest since 1992 at 7.4pc.

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“The cost of airfares rose by more than a year ago and is at a higher level than usual for May,” Office for National Statistics chief economist Grant Fitzner said. “Rising prices for second-hand cars, live music events and computer games also contributed to inflation remaining high.”

Food and drink price inflation dropped slightly to 18.3pc from April’s 19.0pc.

Paul Dales, chief UK economist at Capital Economics, said he now forecast that the BoE would raise interest rates by half a percentage point on Thursday after the latest numbers.

“The problem is that the recent surge in core inflation and the re-acceleration in wage growth shows that domestic inflationary pressures are still strengthening. This suggests the Bank may have more work to do than the Fed or ECB,” Dales said.

Last month the BoE forecast inflation would drop to just over 5pc in the final quarter of this year and fall below its 2pc target in early 2025.

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There may be some relief on the horizon, however, as producer price inflation slowed much more sharply than economists had expected.

Prices charged by manufacturers rose by 2.9pc in the 12 months to May, down from an increase of 5.2pc in April and the smallest rise since March 2021.

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Massive reduction in Punjab flour prices, 20kg bag costing Rs1,000 less: Bilal Yasinv

Massive reduction in Punjab flour prices, 20kg bag costing Rs1,000 less: Bilal Yasinv

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Massive reduction in Punjab flour prices, 20kg bag costing Rs1,000 less: Bilal Yasinv

Highlighting a marked decrease in flour prices, Punjab Food Minister Bilal Yasin on Tuesday said the province already had enough wheat stock to meet the entire needs for year.

Yasin said 20 kilogramme flour bag price had decreased Rs1,000 during the past month and was available for Rs1,700 to Rs1,800 in the market. The current rate of 10 kilogramme bag was Rs900, he added.

Read more: Punjab govt promises to implement new bread prices, blasts those criticising the move

In a statement, the provincial food minister also promised to take action against those responsible for the wheat import scandal which has triggered a crisis for the farmers who are unable to get the promised minimum support price of Rs3,900 per 40 kilogramme as the market is offering much lower rates of Rs2,800 to Rs3,200.

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He reiterated the government stance that the crisis was a result of the caretaker government’s decision of wheat import.

About the ongoing probe ordered by Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif by constituting a fact-finding committee, Yasin said the government was determined to make the report public and hold those accountable behind the episode.

NO MORE WHEAT IMPORT?

He said Punjab currently had carry-forward stock of 2.3 million metric tons of wheat, which was sufficient for period till the next wheat crop harvesting in 2024-25.

The statement is very important because of the fact that Pakistan won’t need any wheat import till even during the next fiscal year as the new wheat crop has already arrived in the market, thus saving precious foreign reserves amid the prevailing financial crisis, which would also keep the rupee strong as a result.

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PUNJAB ROTI PRICES

As Punjab Chief Minister Maryam Nawaz from day one has made price control her primary focus, Yasin also talked about the government decision to slash the roti prices.

“Roti and naan are available at the notified rates across Punjab,” said the minister.

Last month, the Punjab government had slashed the bread prices which jumped higher for a long period due to the increase in wheat prices. Roti price is fixed at Rs16 and naan price at Rs20 – a move that produced the desired results despite initial resistance faced during the first week or so.

Yasin mentioned that around 50 per cent of population in Punjab was living in cities and the people from low-income groups were very happy after the reduction in flour prices.

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Tandoor owners to go on strike over Punjab roti prices notification

Tandoor owners to go on strike over Punjab roti prices notification

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Tandoor owners to go on strike over Punjab roti prices notification

Tandoor owners in Punjab have announced a province-wide strike over the issue bread prices as Chief Minister Maryam Nawaz directed the administration to ensure effective implementation of the new rates.

Soon after assuming the office, Maryam had made price control a top priority of her government and the latest orders are a continuation of a series of measure taken in this regard.

Read more: Administration activated for price control, crackdown on hoarders: Maryam

It is the Muttahida Nanbai Association – a representative body of tandoor owners – announced its decision to start strike from tomorrow (Wednesday), saying the Punjab government had failed to meet their demands.

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Its president, Aftab Gul, says the district administration in Lahore isn’t giving any attention to their demand and they are shutting their businesses across Punjab from Wednesday to register their protest.

The tandoor owners are demanding a new notification of bread prices while calling for keeping the naan prices open and providing flour for roti to ensure implementation of government orders regarding fixing Rs16 as roti prices.

On the other hand, the chief minister in a meeting with assistant commissioners from across Punjab on Monday issued directions on different issues, including monitoring the bread prices notification.

The Punjab government is of the view that flour prices have been slashed – a development that must be reflected in the roti and naan rates.

Read more: Massive reduction in Punjab flour prices, 20kg bag costing Rs1,000 less: Bilal Yasin

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It is not just the low-income workers living separately from their families due to their livelihood compulsions but also a large number of households prefer buying bread from tandoors.

In fact, morning breakfast with naan channa is a tradition in the province, as people young and old rush to the eateries to buy their favourite combo.

Also on Tuesday, Punjab Food Minister Bilal Yasin highlighted a marked decrease in flour prices and said the province already had enough wheat stock to meet the entire needs for year.

Yasin said 20 kilogramme flour bag price had decreased Rs1,000 during the past month and was available for Rs1,700 to Rs1,800 in the market. The current rate of 10 kilogramme bag was Rs900, he added.

Yasin also talked about the government decision to slash the roti prices. “Roti and naan are available at the notified rates across Punjab,” said the minister.

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Last month, the Punjab government had slashed the bread prices which jumped higher for a long period due to the increase in wheat prices. Roti price is fixed at Rs16 and naan price at Rs20 – a move that produced the desired results despite initial resistance faced during the first week or so.

Yasin mentioned that around 50 per cent of population in Punjab was living in cities and the people from low-income groups – who worst affected by inflation – were very happy after the reduction in flour prices. 

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Japan warns of action over volatile currency, notes other nations too share the concerns

Japan warns of action over volatile currency, notes other nations too share the concerns

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Japan warns of action over volatile currency, notes other nations too share the concerns

Japan may have to take action against any disorderly, speculative-driven foreign exchange moves, the government’s top currency diplomat Masato Kanda said on Tuesday, reinforcing Tokyo’s readiness to intervene again to support a fragile yen to control inflation.

“It is preferable for exchange rates to remain in a stable manner following fundamentals, and if the market is functioning soundly in this way, there is of course no need for the government to intervene,” Kanda, Japan’s vice minister of finance for international affairs, told reporters.

“However, when there are excessive fluctuations or disorderly movements due to speculation, the market is not functioning and the government may have to take appropriate action. We will continue to take the same firm approach as we have in the past.”

Tokyo is suspected to have intervened on at least two separate days last week to support the Japanese yen after it tumbled to lows last seen more than three decades ago.

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Bank of Japan data suggested authorities spent more than 9 trillion yen ($58.4 billion) in defence of the currency, helping lift the yen from a 34-year low of 160.245 per dollar to a roughly one-month high of 151.86 over the span of a week.

Tokyo is estimated to have spent around $60bn during its last forays in the market to prop up the yen in September and October 2022.

The Japanese yen, which is down nearly 9 per cent on the dollar this year, was last trading around 154.19 in the Asian afternoon [07:39 GMT].

Japan is reluctant to intervene in the currency market considering its limited available dollar cash reserves and US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen’s comments that such moves were acceptable only in rare circumstances, said Hideo Kumano, chief economist at Dai-ichi Life Research Institute.

“Kanda might have started a verbal warning early on, as he wants to fix the exchange rate pegged at around the lower 150 yen level against the dollar at least until around May 15” when the US consumer price index data comes out, Kumano said.

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YIELD PRESSURE

Kanda, the top Japanese currency diplomat, said it is normal practice for a currency authority to not comment on whether it has carried out market intervention, when asked about recent speculations that Japan has conducted yen-buying interventions.

A weaker yen is a boon for Japanese exporters, but a headache for policymakers as it increases import costs, adds to inflationary pressures and squeezes households.

The yen has been under pressure despite the BOJ’s landmark decision to ditch negative interest rates in March as US interest rates have climbed and Japan’s have stayed near zero.

That dynamic has driven cash out of yen and into higher-yielding assets, with the pressure intensifying in recent months as expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts receded.

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Kanda noted that a number of countries in addition to Japan had expressed serious concerns about foreign exchange market volatility in a meeting leading up to a ASEAN+3 finance ministers and central bank governors conference in the Georgian capital Tbilisi last week.

ASEAN+3 groups the 10-member Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) as well as Japan, China and South Korea.

“The current concerns are not confined to Japan,” Kanda said. 

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