Connect with us

Business

Dollar falls to 2-month low, sterling hits 15-month high after jobs data

Published

on

Dollar falls to 2-month low, sterling hits 15-month high after jobs data

The dollar weakened to a two-month low on Tuesday after Federal Reserve officials signalled that the central bank was nearing the end of its tightening cycle, while the pound hit a 15-month high after pay growth exceeded expectations.

Several Fed officials said on Monday the central bank would likely need to raise interest rates further to bring down inflation but the end to its current monetary policy tightening cycle was getting close.


The comments knocked the greenback to a two-month low of 101.66 against a basket of currencies , as traders pared back their expectations about how much further U.S. rates may have to rise.

“Broader pressure on the USD is likely to develop as cyclical headwinds mount and markets begin to anticipate easier Fed policy settings,” said Shaun Osborne, chief FX strategist at Scotiabank.

Advertisement

Markets are now focusing their attention on U.S. consumer prices data due out on Wednesday, which will provide more clarity on the progress the Fed has made in its fight against stubbornly high inflation.


“The market might receive further reason to sell USD in the shape of the inflation data,” said You-Na Park-Heger, FX analyst at Commerzbank, noting that headline and core inflation were likely to moderate.

EUROPEAN CURRENCIES STRENGTHEN
Sterling , meanwhile, hit a near 15-month high of $1.2933 after British wage growth hit a joint record high, heaping pressure on the Bank of England to tighten policy further to bring inflation under control.


The pound has been rallying on a stronger economy and aggressive repricing of expectations for tighter BoE policy, according to Danske Bank FX analyst Kirstine Kundby-Nielsen.

“There have been no signs of relief in the labour market data and markets continue to price in more. That’s been a huge factor driving the pound,” Kundby-Nielsen said.

Advertisement

Other European currencies were also strong, with the Norwegian crown hitting a near three-month high, the Swedish crown at a two-week peak and the Swiss franc at its strongest since January 2021 against the greenback.

At its June meeting, the Swiss National Bank reiterated it was ready to intervene in the FX market to boost the value of the franc and reduce the effect of more expensive imports.

“This is an important reason for the continuous strong CHF,” Danske Bank’s Kundby-Nielsen said.

“Likewise, the Swiss economy continues to hold up well … fundamentals continue to favour a strong franc.”

The yen was among the biggest gainers, strengthening around 0.6% and past 141 per dollar for the first time in nearly a month. It was last trading at 140.405.

Advertisement

The yen has risen more than 3% from a seven-month low touched last month, when it weakened past the closely watched 145 per dollar level that put traders on high alert for possible intervention from Japanese authorities.

“(The yen) started to stall earlier on, close to 145, and that’s because there were concerns about FX intervention,” said Bank of Singapore currency strategist Moh Siong Sim.

“The market is starting to wake up again to the idea that there is a (Bank of Japan) policy risk going into the July meeting … Given the rising inflation backdrop in Japan, the market is starting to become more wary that perhaps a policy tweak could come.”

Elsewhere, the euro was flat at $1.1004, the Australian dollar slipped 0.2% to $0.6665, while the New Zealand dollar fell 0.5% to $0.6181 ahead of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand policy decision on Wednesday.

Advertisement

Business

Weaker yen, cheaper Japan and over three million foreign tourists

Weaker yen, cheaper Japan and over three million foreign tourists

Published

on

By

Weaker yen, cheaper Japan and over three million foreign tourists

Japan welcomed more than three million visitors for a second straight month in April, official data showed on Wednesday, setting the stage for a potential record year for tourism.

The number of foreign visitors for business and leisure was 3.04 million last month, edging down from the monthly record of 3.08 million achieved in March, data from the Japan National Tourism Organization (JNTO) showed.

Arrivals in April were up 56pc from the prior year and 4pc higher than in 2019, before the COVID-19 pandemic shut global borders. Visitors from France, Italy, and the Middle East rose to record levels in April for any single month.

The yen’s slide to a 34-year low has made Japan a bargain destination for foreign visitors, with arrivals set to blow past the annual record of 31.9 million seen in 2019.

Advertisement

Read more: Weak yen boosts tourist wallets in Japan, per head spending up 52pc when compared to 2019

While the surge in arrivals is good news for Japan’s economy, it has caused frictions with locals. Complaints of litter and illegal parking caused local officials to erect a barrier this month to block a popular photo spot of Japan’s iconic Mt Fuji.

Trail restrictions and a new 2,000 yen ($12.79) fee will go into effect for Mt Fuji climbers this summer after a rise in pollution and accidents during last year’s hiking season.

Visitors from Mainland China, Japan’s biggest tourist market before the pandemic, exceeded 500,000 in April for the first time since January 2020 but were still 27pc below the level in 2019.

Advertisement
Continue Reading

Business

Beijing considers local government purchases of Chinese unsold homes

Beijing considers local government purchases of Chinese unsold homes

Published

on

By

Beijing considers local government purchases of Chinese unsold homes

China is considering a plan for local governments nationwide to buy millions of unsold homes, Bloomberg News said on Wednesday, after a meeting of leaders of the ruling Communist Party called for efforts to clear mounting housing inventory.

The State Council is gathering feedback on the preliminary plan from various provinces and government bodies, the report added, citing people familiar with the matter.

China’s blue-chip CSI 300 real estate index climbed as much as 6 per cent at one point following the report, before paring gains, while the yuan firmed.

China’s property sector has been in a deep slump for years, hit by a debt crisis among developers. Since 2022, waves of policy measures have failed to turn around the sector that represents around a fifth of the economy and remains a major drag on Chinese consumer spending and confidence.

Advertisement

Banks have been reluctant to heed Beijing’s repeated nudges to bolster credit to the embattled sector given the risks of more bad loans and continued weak sales. Home sales value of top 100 developers in April slid 45pc from a year earlier, according to recent surveys published by CRIC, a major real estate information provider.

The Politburo of the Communist Party held a meeting on April 30, saying it would improve policies to clear mounting housing inventories.

Dozens of cities have offered subsidies to encourage residents to replace their old apartments with new ones, in order to sell their growing stock of new apartments and provide crucial cash-flow to ailing developers.

Local state-owned enterprises would be asked to help purchase unsold homes from distressed developers at steep discounts using loans provided by state banks, according to the report, adding that many of these homes would then be converted into affordable housing.

Officials in China are debating the plan’s details and feasibility, and it could take months for it to be finalised, if the country’s leaders decide to go ahead, the report said.

Advertisement

Linan district in the eastern city of Hangzhou issued a notice on Tuesday that the local government will purchase new apartments from private developers for public rental housing.

The district, which has 650,000 residents, said the total area of the flats purchased does not exceed 10,000 square metres. The homes will be existing houses or pre-sold homes available for delivery within one year.

China’s housing ministry did not respond to Reuters request for comment.

One of the biggest drags on property demand is that cash-strapped private developers have halted construction on a large number of new homes that were pre-sold but now cannot be delivered on time. The buyers of these homes, meanwhile, are continuing to pay off their mortgages.

Estimates vary widely, but analysts agree there are tens of millions of uncompleted apartments across China after a building boom turned to bust.

Advertisement

“It’s been our view that Beijing will eventually have to address concerns about homes being delivered,” economists from Nomura said in a recent research note.

“Beijing should reach into its own pockets, even with printed money from the People’s Bank of China, to support the completion of new homes that were pre-sold by developers,” noting such a move made more sense than building public housing from scratch.

Nomura expects that eventually Beijing will set up a special agency and set aside a special fund for such a rescue.

Advertisement
Continue Reading

Business

Pakistan external financing needs estimated at $22bn, lower power tariffs proposed for industries

Pakistan external financing needs estimated at $22bn, lower power tariffs proposed for industries

Published

on

By

Pakistan external financing needs estimated at $22bn, lower power tariffs proposed for industries

As talks are progress between the visiting International Monetary Fund (IMF) mission and Pakistan, the government economic team has given an initial estimate of external financing of around $22 billion, sources say.

At the same time, Islamabad has shared a power tariff rationalisation plan for industrial sector with the IMF, meant to boost much-needed domestic production and exports by giving a package to the related industries.

When it comes to external financing, issuance of sukuk bonds worth $1.5bn during the next fiscal year 2024-25 is part of the plan.

On the other hand, Pakistan is also hopeful of friendly nations extending loan rollover of around $12bn, the sources say, as the cash-starved country badly needs external financing to meet its financial obligations.

Advertisement

Read more: Talks start to secure IMF programme, agreement reached on budget targets

Pakistan requires to ensure debt repayments as per schedule which includes not only the principal amount but also interest payments.

At the same time, the bonds issued by Pakistan repeatedly during the past years have been attractive only because of the high interest rates, which thus worsens the debt repayments challenge for the country.

PAKISTAN PANDA BONDS

Meanwhile, panda bonds – which are denominated in Chinese yuan but issued by foreign borrowers, including companies, multilateral agencies and governments – are also part of this plan.

Advertisement

Finance Minister Muhammad Aurangzeb had stated earlier in March that Pakistan was keen to tap Chinese investors by selling as much as $300 million in panda bonds for the first time ever.

He had told Bloomberg in an interview that selling yuan-denominated debt would allow Pakistan to diversify its funding sources and reach investors in a new market. “It’s something “we should have looked at quite frankly some time back.”

China has the second-largest and deepest bond market in the world and “it is the right thing to do” for Pakistan to tap that market, given Pakistan has already sold dollar and Eurobonds, Aurangzeb said.

According to the sources, the Pakistani authorities are confident that there will be an over $2bn inflow during the current fiscal year before June-end, while financial assistance from the World Bank and the Asian Development Bank (ADB) is also expected in 2024-25.

BOOSTING PAKISTAN EXPORTS

Advertisement

Through the planned tariff rationalisation, the government wants to offer a package to the industrial sector to increase domestic production required to boost exports of Pakistani products by making the same competitive in international markets.

Read more: Power basic tariff hike is one of the IMF demands

Rising costs of doing businesses – an obvious result of high interest rates and energy prices – has crippled the economy and made the goal of increasing exports impossible.

In this connection, the sources say different proposals are being drafted for industrial power tariff cuts meant to boost the export-oriented industries.

The industrial sector, the sources added, have to make additional payments for providing subsidy to the domestic electricity consumers.

Advertisement

With estimated cost of Rs100bn to be incurred in 2024-25, the plan will be included the next budget document after its approval by Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif – a move that can increase exports by $2bn to $3bn. 

Continue Reading

Trending

Copyright © GLOBAL TIMES PAKISTAN