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Germany’s property sector is in the dumps. Should we care?

Published

2 months ago

August 9, 2023

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Germany's property sector is in the dumps. Should we care?

Germany has long benefited from an era of cheap money that fuelled a decade-long boom in real estate, but now the sector is grappling with a major turn of fortune.

In the latest signs of stress in the sector, Germany’s largest real estate group Vonovia posted multi-billion euro losses and write-downs, and job growth for construction workers has stagnated.

Here are some key questions as the crisis unfolds:

Weakness in real estate has also emerged in the United States and Sweden, but Germany is significant because it is Europe’s largest economy and the biggest real estate investment market on the continent.

The property sector makes up roughly a fifth of economic output and one in ten jobs, according to the German Property Federation.

New construction plummeted in Germany during the first half of the year, dropping 47 per cent compared with the average of the past two years, and new building permits plunged 27pc during the first five months.

Home prices also declined in the first quarter by the most since Germany’s statistics office began keeping data, down 6.8pc from a year earlier.

In September, data will show to what extent the trend is continuing and shed light on the state of construction jobs.

“The current crisis will certainly continue for a while yet,” said Sven Carstensen, chief executive of Bulwiengesa, a property consultant and analysis firm.

The main factor has been a sudden and rapid rise in interest rates by the European Central Bank as it clamps down on the highest inflation rates in decades, but there’s more to it.

Building costs have also soared, and the demand for offices and retail space has waned after the pandemic. The Ukraine war has also made German property seem riskier for foreign investors.

“If you are an investor from the Middle East, Germany seems to be quite close to Ukraine. They say, ‘I want to allocate money to the US and Asia and not to Germany,’” said Florian Schwalm, a consultant with EY.

Germany, whose population has recently grown as millions of migrants and refugees from Ukraine flock to the country, aims to build 400,000 apartments a year but is struggling with its goals.

Politicians, ministries and the property industry will convene with Chancellor Olaf Scholz on Sept. 25 to try to find solutions, and some are already jockeying with proposals to rejuvenate the sector.

Last week, Klara Geywitz, Germany’s housing minister, called for additional tax breaks for writing off the costs of construction for new residential buildings.

The president of the German Property Federation, Andreas Mattner, is pressing the government to temporarily suspend a property sales tax and is demanding a low-interest rate credit program to support new residential building.

Tim-Oliver Mueller, head of the German Construction Industry Federation, is pushing for an emergency package of measures that would include the cut-price sale of public land for building rentals.

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Business

Nepra approves Rs3.28 per unit increase in power tariff

Published

1 day ago

September 23, 2023

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Nepra approves Rs3.28 per unit increase in power tariff

The National Electric Power Regulatory Authority (Nepra) has approved Rs3.28 per unit increase in power tariff on the account of fuel cost adjustment for fourth quarter of fiscal year 2022-23.

The regulatory body has sent his decision to the federal government for final approval. The increase in electricity prices will come into effect immediately after it is approved by the government.

The distribution companies (Discos) would recover Rs159 billion from consumers during the period of six months (October 2023 to March 2024).

The revised rate will be applicable on all customers.

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Business

Inflation goes up as people feel effects of fuel price hikes

Published

1 day ago

September 23, 2023

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Inflation goes up as people feel effects of fuel price hikes

Food and fuel prices continue fuelling inflation in Pakistan as the Sensitive Price Indicator (SPI) for the week ended September 21 witnessed a 0.93 per increase amid the complete government failure to check the rates.

Read more: Food prices owing to weaker rupee, supply shortages will push Pakistan inflation: ADB

The latest data released by the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS) shows that chicken price had jumped by 8.49pc followed by petrol 8.51pc, diesel 5.54pc garlic 5.19pc and onion 3.02pc.

At the same time, the year-on-year increase in SPI stood at 38.66pc when compared with the corresponding week of last year.

Read more: More food inflation as fuel price hikes increase production, transportation costs

The rising inflation in Pakistan urgently needs government intervention and a study of how different governments are dealing with the challenge. Tax on cut on food items is one of methods.

Read more: Fighting the food inflation: From net-zero VAT to supermarkets seeking price cuts

Earlier this week, the Asian Development Bank (ADB) had warned that average inflation in Pakistan will soar to 29.2 per cent caused by supply shortages, continued currency depreciation, import restrictions, and fiscal stimulus for post-pandemic recovery.

Meanwhile, the rising food prices shouldn’t be a surprise given that the regular fuel price hikes are increasing the production and transportation costs.

The main reason behind the persistent inflation in Pakistan is devaluation as the rupee had dropped to the record against the US dollar – a trend that is being reversed somewhat amid a crackdown on blacking marketers on hoarders.

However, the exchange rate is still too high, requiring further correction, as the people have also been hit hard for power and gas tariffs as the conditions set by the International Monetary Fund (IMF).

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Business

Power tariff hikes: The more you devalue rupee, the more capacity charges you pay

Published

5 days ago

September 19, 2023

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Power tariff hikes: The more you devalue rupee, the more capacity charges you pay

Devaluation – a process that started under former finance minister Miftah Ismail in late 2017 and late 2018 but gained momentum under the PTI government – is the root cause of inflation shouldn’t be a contested statement as it has made imports even more expensive for Pakistan.

And that’s countries like Pakistan are the worst affected due the rising commodities prices in global market as weaker currencies mean the overall impact is much deeper for them than the rest.

Read more: Rupee collapse is the reason behind all ills Pakistan is facing

This argument was endorsed by none other a high-ranking government official – Power Division Secretary Rashid Langrial who said on Monday that the capacity [charges] payment had doubled after the dollar exchange rate increased from Rs100 to Rs300, thus resulting in skyrocketing electricity tariffs for consumers.

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