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Climate change means poverty for many. Is Pakistan ready to address the challenge?

Climate change means poverty for many. Is Pakistan ready to address the challenge?

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Climate change means poverty for many. Is Pakistan ready to address the challenge?

Climate change is real and already here for long enough to push countries like Pakistan towards water scarcity – an unwanted distinction that is even more alarming in our case because of the population size and density as well as lack of human resource development and a society that hasn’t yet been fully industrialised.

So rising unemployment and poverty shouldn’t be a surprise, as Pakistan is already witnessing a cost-of-living crisis amid record-high inflation and interest rates – a combination not only sustaining but also further fuelling the existing economic crisis.

With glaciers melting at the fastest rate ever recorded, Pakistan, like other many other countries, is experiencing extreme weather events, including rising temperatures amid a rain pattern that is getting more and more erratic with each passing rainy season.

The state of affairs is complicating by the fact that the climate change or global warming is a global issue and Pakistan doesn’t have the resources or the policies required to launch initiatives that can tackle the challenge at various levels and in different sectors.

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As agriculture is no more profitable for many households due to a shrinking land holding size and urbanisation of farmland at a time when mechanisation has been making it less labour intensive, people are moving to the cities in search of livelihood, further straining the fragile infrastructure these urban centres have.

Unfortunately, there is no comprehensive plan or policy in Pakistan to address the economic, social and political problems triggered by climate change.

Here is a latest example from Iraq as AFP covered the effects being felt in Iraq

IRAQIS DISPLACED BY CLIMATE CHANGE FALL INTO POVERTY

For the past decade, Nasser Jabbar and his children have lived in a rundown house built of grey concrete blocks at a shantytown in southern Iraq.

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Drought chased the father of 10 out of the countryside, where he had been a herder and farmer, and into a life of unemployment and urban poverty.

“We lost the land and we lost the water,” said the father in his 40s, wearing a traditional white robe.

He spoke to AFP in his home on the edges of Nasiriyah, capital of Dhi Qar province.

Jabbar’s neighbourhood typifies the extreme poverty that those displaced by climate change face in south and central Iraq.

With declining rainfall, the country has seen four consecutive years of drought.

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In the shantytown where he lives, cracked streets lined with rubble and piles of rubbish snake between houses thrown together by their inhabitants.

On an empty lot surrounded by ramshackle buildings, sewers empty onto open ground as cows rest in the shadow of a low wall nearby.

Like Jabbar, many of the displaced who live here abandoned their villages after a life working in agriculture.

In the old days in Gateia, Jabbar’s village in Dhi Qar, he farmed five hectares (just over 12 acres) of land with his brothers.
In winter, they harvested barley; in summer, vegetables.

Before leaving his fields behind for the last time, Jabbar did what he could for four years to combat the onward march of an increasingly inhospitable climate.

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$4 A DAY INCOME

He dug a well, but “little by little the water dropped”, and he had to sell off his herd of 50 goats one by one.
Once in the city, he found work on construction sites carrying bricks or mixing concrete, but had to stop in the end because of back problems.

“I haven’t worked for three years,” he said.

Now two of his children, aged 17 and 18, support the family by carrying goods to market, earning a little less than four dollars a day.

Despite Iraq being an oil-rich country, poverty is common.

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In addition to drought, the authorities blame upstream dams built by Iraq’s powerful neighbours Iran and Turkey for dramatically lowering water levels in the Tigris and Euphrates rivers which have irrigated Iraq for millennia.

By mid-September, “21,798 families (130,788 individuals) remain displaced because of drought conditions across 12 governorates” in central and southern Iraq, an International Organization for Migration report said.

According to the IOM, 74 percent of climate refugees resettle in urban areas.

Dhi Qar’s deputy governor in charge of planning, Ghassan al-Khafaji, noted “significant internal migration” in the province, sparked by water shortages.

In five years “3,200 housing units were built on the outskirts of the city” of Nasiriyah, as a result of an exodus from Iraq’s famed southern marshes which have been assailed by drought.

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Those houses account for “between 20,000 and 25,000 people”, Khafaji added.

RISK OF UNREST

“This internal migration has put extra pressure on employment, with our young people already suffering from significant unemployment.”

Iraq has been wracked by decades of conflict, and corruption has eroded public administration. Urban centres are no better off than the countryside.

Cities are “already confined in their ability to provide basic services to existing residents due to limited, ageing and underfunded infrastructure”, Thomas Wilson, a climate and water specialist at the Norwegian Refugee Council, told AFP.

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“Trends in rural to urban movement put an additional burden on failing infrastructure,” he said.

He recommended “resource management plans, effective governance, and investment” in favour of the regions the displaced come from, in the framework of a “policy to reduce and mitigate forced migration”.

In a country of 43 million people, nearly one Iraqi in five lives in an area suffering from water shortages.

In April, a UN-issued report noted the risk of “social unrest” because of climate factors.

“Limited economic opportunities for young people in crowded urban areas further risk reinforcing feelings of marginalisation, exclusion, and injustice,” the report said.

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“This could fuel tensions between different ethno-religious groups or increase grievances vis-a-vis state institutions,” it added.

Qassem Jabbar, Nasser’s 47-year-old brother, joined him in Nasiriyah three years ago.

“Since we left, I haven’t been working”, said Qassem, his waist strapped in a brace after he had a back operation he could only pay for with the help of donors.

Of his own 10 children, only two go to school. How could he possibly cover school fees for them all?

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Weaker yen, cheaper Japan and over three million foreign tourists

Weaker yen, cheaper Japan and over three million foreign tourists

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Weaker yen, cheaper Japan and over three million foreign tourists

Japan welcomed more than three million visitors for a second straight month in April, official data showed on Wednesday, setting the stage for a potential record year for tourism.

The number of foreign visitors for business and leisure was 3.04 million last month, edging down from the monthly record of 3.08 million achieved in March, data from the Japan National Tourism Organization (JNTO) showed.

Arrivals in April were up 56pc from the prior year and 4pc higher than in 2019, before the COVID-19 pandemic shut global borders. Visitors from France, Italy, and the Middle East rose to record levels in April for any single month.

The yen’s slide to a 34-year low has made Japan a bargain destination for foreign visitors, with arrivals set to blow past the annual record of 31.9 million seen in 2019.

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Read more: Weak yen boosts tourist wallets in Japan, per head spending up 52pc when compared to 2019

While the surge in arrivals is good news for Japan’s economy, it has caused frictions with locals. Complaints of litter and illegal parking caused local officials to erect a barrier this month to block a popular photo spot of Japan’s iconic Mt Fuji.

Trail restrictions and a new 2,000 yen ($12.79) fee will go into effect for Mt Fuji climbers this summer after a rise in pollution and accidents during last year’s hiking season.

Visitors from Mainland China, Japan’s biggest tourist market before the pandemic, exceeded 500,000 in April for the first time since January 2020 but were still 27pc below the level in 2019.

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Beijing considers local government purchases of Chinese unsold homes

Beijing considers local government purchases of Chinese unsold homes

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Beijing considers local government purchases of Chinese unsold homes

China is considering a plan for local governments nationwide to buy millions of unsold homes, Bloomberg News said on Wednesday, after a meeting of leaders of the ruling Communist Party called for efforts to clear mounting housing inventory.

The State Council is gathering feedback on the preliminary plan from various provinces and government bodies, the report added, citing people familiar with the matter.

China’s blue-chip CSI 300 real estate index climbed as much as 6 per cent at one point following the report, before paring gains, while the yuan firmed.

China’s property sector has been in a deep slump for years, hit by a debt crisis among developers. Since 2022, waves of policy measures have failed to turn around the sector that represents around a fifth of the economy and remains a major drag on Chinese consumer spending and confidence.

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Banks have been reluctant to heed Beijing’s repeated nudges to bolster credit to the embattled sector given the risks of more bad loans and continued weak sales. Home sales value of top 100 developers in April slid 45pc from a year earlier, according to recent surveys published by CRIC, a major real estate information provider.

The Politburo of the Communist Party held a meeting on April 30, saying it would improve policies to clear mounting housing inventories.

Dozens of cities have offered subsidies to encourage residents to replace their old apartments with new ones, in order to sell their growing stock of new apartments and provide crucial cash-flow to ailing developers.

Local state-owned enterprises would be asked to help purchase unsold homes from distressed developers at steep discounts using loans provided by state banks, according to the report, adding that many of these homes would then be converted into affordable housing.

Officials in China are debating the plan’s details and feasibility, and it could take months for it to be finalised, if the country’s leaders decide to go ahead, the report said.

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Linan district in the eastern city of Hangzhou issued a notice on Tuesday that the local government will purchase new apartments from private developers for public rental housing.

The district, which has 650,000 residents, said the total area of the flats purchased does not exceed 10,000 square metres. The homes will be existing houses or pre-sold homes available for delivery within one year.

China’s housing ministry did not respond to Reuters request for comment.

One of the biggest drags on property demand is that cash-strapped private developers have halted construction on a large number of new homes that were pre-sold but now cannot be delivered on time. The buyers of these homes, meanwhile, are continuing to pay off their mortgages.

Estimates vary widely, but analysts agree there are tens of millions of uncompleted apartments across China after a building boom turned to bust.

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“It’s been our view that Beijing will eventually have to address concerns about homes being delivered,” economists from Nomura said in a recent research note.

“Beijing should reach into its own pockets, even with printed money from the People’s Bank of China, to support the completion of new homes that were pre-sold by developers,” noting such a move made more sense than building public housing from scratch.

Nomura expects that eventually Beijing will set up a special agency and set aside a special fund for such a rescue.

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Pakistan external financing needs estimated at $22bn, lower power tariffs proposed for industries

Pakistan external financing needs estimated at $22bn, lower power tariffs proposed for industries

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Pakistan external financing needs estimated at $22bn, lower power tariffs proposed for industries

As talks are progress between the visiting International Monetary Fund (IMF) mission and Pakistan, the government economic team has given an initial estimate of external financing of around $22 billion, sources say.

At the same time, Islamabad has shared a power tariff rationalisation plan for industrial sector with the IMF, meant to boost much-needed domestic production and exports by giving a package to the related industries.

When it comes to external financing, issuance of sukuk bonds worth $1.5bn during the next fiscal year 2024-25 is part of the plan.

On the other hand, Pakistan is also hopeful of friendly nations extending loan rollover of around $12bn, the sources say, as the cash-starved country badly needs external financing to meet its financial obligations.

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Read more: Talks start to secure IMF programme, agreement reached on budget targets

Pakistan requires to ensure debt repayments as per schedule which includes not only the principal amount but also interest payments.

At the same time, the bonds issued by Pakistan repeatedly during the past years have been attractive only because of the high interest rates, which thus worsens the debt repayments challenge for the country.

PAKISTAN PANDA BONDS

Meanwhile, panda bonds – which are denominated in Chinese yuan but issued by foreign borrowers, including companies, multilateral agencies and governments – are also part of this plan.

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Finance Minister Muhammad Aurangzeb had stated earlier in March that Pakistan was keen to tap Chinese investors by selling as much as $300 million in panda bonds for the first time ever.

He had told Bloomberg in an interview that selling yuan-denominated debt would allow Pakistan to diversify its funding sources and reach investors in a new market. “It’s something “we should have looked at quite frankly some time back.”

China has the second-largest and deepest bond market in the world and “it is the right thing to do” for Pakistan to tap that market, given Pakistan has already sold dollar and Eurobonds, Aurangzeb said.

According to the sources, the Pakistani authorities are confident that there will be an over $2bn inflow during the current fiscal year before June-end, while financial assistance from the World Bank and the Asian Development Bank (ADB) is also expected in 2024-25.

BOOSTING PAKISTAN EXPORTS

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Through the planned tariff rationalisation, the government wants to offer a package to the industrial sector to increase domestic production required to boost exports of Pakistani products by making the same competitive in international markets.

Read more: Power basic tariff hike is one of the IMF demands

Rising costs of doing businesses – an obvious result of high interest rates and energy prices – has crippled the economy and made the goal of increasing exports impossible.

In this connection, the sources say different proposals are being drafted for industrial power tariff cuts meant to boost the export-oriented industries.

The industrial sector, the sources added, have to make additional payments for providing subsidy to the domestic electricity consumers.

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With estimated cost of Rs100bn to be incurred in 2024-25, the plan will be included the next budget document after its approval by Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif – a move that can increase exports by $2bn to $3bn. 

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