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Five elections in 2024 that will shape the global order

Five elections in 2024 that will shape the global order

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Five elections in 2024 that will shape the global order

Could Donald Trump make a comeback? Will anyone in Russia challenge Vladimir Putin?

With half the world heading to the polls in 2024, and some 30 countries electing a president, here are five key elections to watch:

Trump-Biden rematch? 

On Nov 5, tens of millions of Americans will choose a president in a contest which could keep incumbent Joe Biden in power until the age of 86. 

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Poll after poll shows that a majority of voters think the gaffe-prone Democrat is too old to be commander-in-chief, despite his likely rival, ex-president Donald Trump making similar slip-ups at 77.

Disinformation looks set to be a feature of the campaign, a hangover from the last foul-tempered contest which ended with Trump supporters storming the US Capitol to try to halt the certification of Biden’s victory.

Trump goes into the Republican party nomination contest the clear favourite, despite multiple criminal trials hanging over him.

Biden’s campaign suffered another blow after the Republican-led House of Representatives voted in December to open a formal impeachment inquiry into whether he profited unduly from his son’s foreign business deals while he was vice-president under Barack Obama. 

Putin eyes six more years 

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A newly-confident Russian President Vladimir Putin, energised by his troops’ success in holding their positions in Ukraine two years into the war, is hoping to extend his 24-year rule by another six years in March elections.

On Dec 8 he announced he is running for a fifth term, which would keep him in power until 2030.

In 2020 he had the constitution amended to allow him to theoretically stay in power until 2036, which could potentially see him rule for longer than Joseph Stalin.

With the war in Ukraine used to lock up or silence dissenters and opponents, there is little chance of anyone standing in his way.

His long-time nemesis Alexei Navalny is serving a 19-year jail sentence.

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Modi’s great power play

Nearly one billion Indians will be called on to vote in April-May when the world’s most populous nation goes to the polls in an election in which Prime Minister Narendra Modi and his nationalist BJP party are seeking a third term.

Modi’s political career and success have been based on support from India’s one-billion-plus Hindus and, critics say, stoking enmity toward the country’s large Muslim minority.

Despite a crackdown on civil liberties on his watch, he goes into the vote the clear favourite, with his supporters crediting him with boosting his country’s standing on the global stage.

EU test for populists

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The world’s largest transnational poll in June will see more than 400 million people eligible to vote in the European Parliament election.

The vote will be a test of support for right-wing populists, who have the wind in their sails after the victory of Geert Wilders’ anti-Islam, anti-EU PVV Freedom Party in November’s Dutch elections and last year’s win for Giorgia Meloni’s far-right Brothers of Italy.

Brussels can take heart however from Poland, where former European Council president Donald Tusk has returned to power on a solidly pro-EU platform.

First Mexican woman president?

A leftist former mayor of the capital and a businesswoman with Indigenous roots are both vying to make history in Mexico in June by becoming the first woman president of a country with a tradition of machismo.

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Former Mexico City mayor Claudia Sheinbaum is running on behalf of outgoing President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador’s Morena party.

Her outspoken opponent Xochitl Galvez has been selected to represent an opposition coalition, the Broad Front for Mexico.

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Estonia summons Russian embassy chief over GPS jamming

Estonia summons Russian embassy chief over GPS jamming

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Estonia summons Russian embassy chief over GPS jamming

Estonia’s foreign ministry has summoned the head of the Russian embassy in Tallinn to protest the jamming of GPS signals, the Baltic country said on Wednesday.

Estonia accuses neighbouring Russia of violating international regulations by disturbing GPS navigation in airspace above the Baltic states, echoing concerns from airlines that say they have contended with such interference for months.

The Estonian foreign ministry on Wednesday summoned Russia’s charge d’affaires to convey its message. Moscow and Tallinn last year expelled each other’s ambassadors as relations deteriorated in the wake of Moscow’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022.

“Jamming the GPS signal is an element of Russia’s hybrid activities, disrupting everyday life and threatening the security of allies,” Estonian Foreign Minister Margus Tsahkna said in a statement.

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Russia’s foreign ministry did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

GPS, short for Global Positioning System, is a network of satellites and receiving devices used for positioning, navigation and timing on Earth in everything from ships and planes to cars.

The jamming of GPS signals can be disruptive to commercial airliners but they can usually navigate by other means.

Finnish carrier Finnair last month said it would pause all flights to Tartu in Estonia to allow the local airport to upgrade its navigation system, which has so far relied only on GPS.

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Australia boosts funds to Taiwan-ally Tuvalu amid Pacific contest for influence with China

Australia boosts funds to Taiwan-ally Tuvalu amid Pacific contest for influence with China

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Australia boosts funds to Taiwan-ally Tuvalu amid Pacific contest for influence with China

Australia will quadruple its financial assistance to Tuvalu, a Pacific Island nation at risk from rising seas, to cement a landmark climate migration and security deal as China also courts small island states.

On a visit to Tuvalu, foreign minister Penny Wong said on Wednesday evening Australia has committed A$110 million ($72.27 million) in its national budget to Tuvalu.

The sum includes A$50 million ($32.85 million) to build the first undersea cable connecting the island’s residents to global telecommunications services, and A$19 million for a land reclamation project to fortify Tuvalu’s coastline from rising seas.

Another A$15 million will be spent on a national security coordination centre, as well as A$10 million in direct budget support.

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The funding is a significant boost on the A$17 million ($11.17 million) Australia provided to Tuvalu in 2023-24.

China’s ambitions for a greater security presence in the Pacific became an election issue in Tuvalu in January, as two leadership contenders said Tuvalu should consider switching ties from Taiwan to Beijing for more funds, and revise a new security pact with Australia.

Neighbour Nauru cut ties with Taiwan a fortnight before Tuvalu’s vote, after China built a port and promised more aid.

Tuvalu’s new prime minister Feleti Teo pledged to stick with Taiwan, and to ratify the Falepili Union signed with Australia in November. The treaty allows Tuvalu citizens to migrate to Australia for work or study, while recognising Tuvalu continues to exist despite the rising sea levels.

“Australia has provided a security guarantee to support Tuvalu in a humanitarian disaster, a pandemic or the event of attack,” Wong said in a speech on Wednesday evening.

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“It is also the first time in history that two nations have agreed in a legally binding instrument that statehood endures in the face of sea level rise,” she added.

The treaty allows Australia to vet Tuvalu’s deals with third countries in a broad range of security areas from ports to telecommunications.

On Thursday, Wong and Teo are expected to say that the security cooperation does not limit Tuvalu’s ability to enter into diplomatic agreements with other nations, according to an advance copy of a joint statement viewed by Reuters.

“We recognise that the people of Tuvalu deserve the choice to live, study and work elsewhere, as climate change impacts intensify at home,” the text of the statement reads.

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Probe launched after Boeing cargo plane lands in Istanbul without front landing gear

Probe launched after Boeing cargo plane lands in Istanbul without front landing gear

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Probe launched after Boeing cargo plane lands in Istanbul without front landing gear

A FedEx Airlines Boeing cargo plane landed at Istanbul Airport on Wednesday without its front landing gear, a Turkish Transport Ministry official said, adding there were no casualties and authorities had launched an investigation.

The aircraft, flying from Paris Charles de Gaulle Airport, informed the control tower in Istanbul that its landing gear had failed to open and touched down with guidance from the tower, managing to remain on the runway, a ministry statement said.

Airport rescue and fire fighting teams were scrambled before landing, but no one was injured. The ministry gave no reason for the failure.

The aircraft involved is a nearly 10-year-old Boeing 767 freighter, one of the most common cargo planes and based on the 767 passenger model dating back to the 1980s.

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An official from Turkey’s transport ministry said its teams were conducting examinations at the scene as part of the ongoing investigation, but did not provide further details.

Boeing referred queries to FedEX, which said in a statement it was coordinating with investigation authorities and would “provide additional information as it is available”.

Video footage obtained by Reuters showed sparks flying and some smoke as the front of the plane scraped along the runway before coming to a halt and being doused with firefighting foam. No fire appeared to have broken out.

The video showed the pilots holding the plane’s nose above the runway for several seconds after the main wheels had touched the ground, apparently executing the emergency drill for landing with a retracted nose gear that pilots train for, according to the SKYbrary aviation database.

In June last year, a small 22-year-old Boeing 717 flown by Delta Airlines made a similar smooth landing without a nose gear in Charlotte, North Carolina, in an incident later blamed on a fractured component.

The runway was temporarily closed to air traffic, but other runways at Istanbul airport were still operating normally, the airport operator IGA said.

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Manufacturers are not typically involved in the operation or maintenance of jets once they enter service, but Boeing has been under intense media and regulatory scrutiny following a series of incidents on its smaller 737.

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