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Dollar index sees first weekly fall this year, yen remains the worst performer

Dollar index sees first weekly fall this year, yen remains the worst performer

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Dollar index sees first weekly fall this year, yen remains the worst performer

The US dollar index experienced its first weekly fall in 2024 on Friday as investors took a breather from buying the currency following an almost two-month rally built on expectations that the Federal Reserve will begin cutting rates later than previously expected.

Investors have pushed back expectations for the first Fed rate cut to June, from May, and dramatically reduced how far they see the US Federal Reserve cutting its benchmark rate. Fed officials have projected three 25 basis point cuts this year, while markets had priced for as many as seven.

“The dollar’s rally this year has been predicated on the markets converging back to the Fed,” said Marc Chandler, chief market strategist at Bannockburn Global Forex in New York.

Traders may also be pricing for the likelihood that economic data will begin to slow.

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“I think starting with the February jobs data, which is due March 8, we’re going to begin seeing a series of weaker US economic data,” Chandler said.

Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) due next week may also provide clues for Fed policy.

New York Fed President John Williams sees the US central bank on track for interest rate cuts “later this year,” despite stronger-than-expected readings on inflation and the labour market in January, according to an interview published Friday by Axios.

The dollar index was little changed on the day on Friday at 103.96 and had a weekly loss of 0.32 per cent. It has bounced from a five-month low of 100.61 on Dec 28 and is holding below a three-month high of 104.97 reached on Feb 14.

The greenback has risen this year on enduring economic strength and as Fed officials caution against cutting rates too soon as they seek to bring inflation back closer to their 2pc annual target.

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Now, however, investors are waiting on further economic indicators for fresh clues on monetary policy.

“It’s not the time yet to sell the dollar, but we think it will start to weaken in the second quarter, assuming that the Fed will cut in June and continue cutting rates once a quarter,” said Athanasios Vamvakidis, global head of G10 forex strategy at BofA Global Research.

BofA expects the euro to strengthen to 1.15 versus the greenback by the end of the year.

“If the US economy remains so strong, we have to change our view, as the Fed might not be able to cut in June or not even this year,” Vamvakidis added.

Improved risk appetite that has seen stock markets set records in several countries this week may have also reduced demand for the US currency, which is seen as a safe haven.

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The euro was little changed on the day at $1.0822. It has dropped from $1.11395 on Dec 28, but is up from $1.0695 on Feb 14.

German business morale improved in February, a survey showed on Friday, though probably not enough to prevent Europe’s biggest economy from slipping into another recession.

ECB President Christine Lagarde on Friday called the relatively benign fourth quarter wage growth data encouraging but not yet enough to give the European Central Bank confidence that inflation has been defeated.

YEN WORST PERFORMER

The yen is the worst-performing G10 currency this year, with the greenback gaining 6.7pc against the Japanese currency.

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The dollar fell 0.02pc to 150.5 yen on Friday.

The Japanese currency is headed for a fourth weekly drop as investors chased better yields just about everywhere else, wagering Japan’s rates would stay near zero for some time.

With the Fed expected to hold rates higher for longer, investors are staying in carry trades in which they sell or borrow the yen and invest in higher yielding currencies.

“For the dollar/yen to weaken, we need the Fed to start cutting rates,” said BofA’s Vamvakidis. 

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Massive reduction in Punjab flour prices, 20kg bag costing Rs1,000 less: Bilal Yasinv

Massive reduction in Punjab flour prices, 20kg bag costing Rs1,000 less: Bilal Yasinv

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Massive reduction in Punjab flour prices, 20kg bag costing Rs1,000 less: Bilal Yasinv

Highlighting a marked decrease in flour prices, Punjab Food Minister Bilal Yasin on Tuesday said the province already had enough wheat stock to meet the entire needs for year.

Yasin said 20 kilogramme flour bag price had decreased Rs1,000 during the past month and was available for Rs1,700 to Rs1,800 in the market. The current rate of 10 kilogramme bag was Rs900, he added.

Read more: Punjab govt promises to implement new bread prices, blasts those criticising the move

In a statement, the provincial food minister also promised to take action against those responsible for the wheat import scandal which has triggered a crisis for the farmers who are unable to get the promised minimum support price of Rs3,900 per 40 kilogramme as the market is offering much lower rates of Rs2,800 to Rs3,200.

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He reiterated the government stance that the crisis was a result of the caretaker government’s decision of wheat import.

About the ongoing probe ordered by Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif by constituting a fact-finding committee, Yasin said the government was determined to make the report public and hold those accountable behind the episode.

NO MORE WHEAT IMPORT?

He said Punjab currently had carry-forward stock of 2.3 million metric tons of wheat, which was sufficient for period till the next wheat crop harvesting in 2024-25.

The statement is very important because of the fact that Pakistan won’t need any wheat import till even during the next fiscal year as the new wheat crop has already arrived in the market, thus saving precious foreign reserves amid the prevailing financial crisis, which would also keep the rupee strong as a result.

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PUNJAB ROTI PRICES

As Punjab Chief Minister Maryam Nawaz from day one has made price control her primary focus, Yasin also talked about the government decision to slash the roti prices.

“Roti and naan are available at the notified rates across Punjab,” said the minister.

Last month, the Punjab government had slashed the bread prices which jumped higher for a long period due to the increase in wheat prices. Roti price is fixed at Rs16 and naan price at Rs20 – a move that produced the desired results despite initial resistance faced during the first week or so.

Yasin mentioned that around 50 per cent of population in Punjab was living in cities and the people from low-income groups were very happy after the reduction in flour prices.

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Tandoor owners to go on strike over Punjab roti prices notification

Tandoor owners to go on strike over Punjab roti prices notification

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Tandoor owners to go on strike over Punjab roti prices notification

Tandoor owners in Punjab have announced a province-wide strike over the issue bread prices as Chief Minister Maryam Nawaz directed the administration to ensure effective implementation of the new rates.

Soon after assuming the office, Maryam had made price control a top priority of her government and the latest orders are a continuation of a series of measure taken in this regard.

Read more: Administration activated for price control, crackdown on hoarders: Maryam

It is the Muttahida Nanbai Association – a representative body of tandoor owners – announced its decision to start strike from tomorrow (Wednesday), saying the Punjab government had failed to meet their demands.

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Its president, Aftab Gul, says the district administration in Lahore isn’t giving any attention to their demand and they are shutting their businesses across Punjab from Wednesday to register their protest.

The tandoor owners are demanding a new notification of bread prices while calling for keeping the naan prices open and providing flour for roti to ensure implementation of government orders regarding fixing Rs16 as roti prices.

On the other hand, the chief minister in a meeting with assistant commissioners from across Punjab on Monday issued directions on different issues, including monitoring the bread prices notification.

The Punjab government is of the view that flour prices have been slashed – a development that must be reflected in the roti and naan rates.

Read more: Massive reduction in Punjab flour prices, 20kg bag costing Rs1,000 less: Bilal Yasin

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It is not just the low-income workers living separately from their families due to their livelihood compulsions but also a large number of households prefer buying bread from tandoors.

In fact, morning breakfast with naan channa is a tradition in the province, as people young and old rush to the eateries to buy their favourite combo.

Also on Tuesday, Punjab Food Minister Bilal Yasin highlighted a marked decrease in flour prices and said the province already had enough wheat stock to meet the entire needs for year.

Yasin said 20 kilogramme flour bag price had decreased Rs1,000 during the past month and was available for Rs1,700 to Rs1,800 in the market. The current rate of 10 kilogramme bag was Rs900, he added.

Yasin also talked about the government decision to slash the roti prices. “Roti and naan are available at the notified rates across Punjab,” said the minister.

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Last month, the Punjab government had slashed the bread prices which jumped higher for a long period due to the increase in wheat prices. Roti price is fixed at Rs16 and naan price at Rs20 – a move that produced the desired results despite initial resistance faced during the first week or so.

Yasin mentioned that around 50 per cent of population in Punjab was living in cities and the people from low-income groups – who worst affected by inflation – were very happy after the reduction in flour prices. 

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Japan warns of action over volatile currency, notes other nations too share the concerns

Japan warns of action over volatile currency, notes other nations too share the concerns

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Japan warns of action over volatile currency, notes other nations too share the concerns

Japan may have to take action against any disorderly, speculative-driven foreign exchange moves, the government’s top currency diplomat Masato Kanda said on Tuesday, reinforcing Tokyo’s readiness to intervene again to support a fragile yen to control inflation.

“It is preferable for exchange rates to remain in a stable manner following fundamentals, and if the market is functioning soundly in this way, there is of course no need for the government to intervene,” Kanda, Japan’s vice minister of finance for international affairs, told reporters.

“However, when there are excessive fluctuations or disorderly movements due to speculation, the market is not functioning and the government may have to take appropriate action. We will continue to take the same firm approach as we have in the past.”

Tokyo is suspected to have intervened on at least two separate days last week to support the Japanese yen after it tumbled to lows last seen more than three decades ago.

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Bank of Japan data suggested authorities spent more than 9 trillion yen ($58.4 billion) in defence of the currency, helping lift the yen from a 34-year low of 160.245 per dollar to a roughly one-month high of 151.86 over the span of a week.

Tokyo is estimated to have spent around $60bn during its last forays in the market to prop up the yen in September and October 2022.

The Japanese yen, which is down nearly 9 per cent on the dollar this year, was last trading around 154.19 in the Asian afternoon [07:39 GMT].

Japan is reluctant to intervene in the currency market considering its limited available dollar cash reserves and US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen’s comments that such moves were acceptable only in rare circumstances, said Hideo Kumano, chief economist at Dai-ichi Life Research Institute.

“Kanda might have started a verbal warning early on, as he wants to fix the exchange rate pegged at around the lower 150 yen level against the dollar at least until around May 15” when the US consumer price index data comes out, Kumano said.

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YIELD PRESSURE

Kanda, the top Japanese currency diplomat, said it is normal practice for a currency authority to not comment on whether it has carried out market intervention, when asked about recent speculations that Japan has conducted yen-buying interventions.

A weaker yen is a boon for Japanese exporters, but a headache for policymakers as it increases import costs, adds to inflationary pressures and squeezes households.

The yen has been under pressure despite the BOJ’s landmark decision to ditch negative interest rates in March as US interest rates have climbed and Japan’s have stayed near zero.

That dynamic has driven cash out of yen and into higher-yielding assets, with the pressure intensifying in recent months as expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts receded.

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Kanda noted that a number of countries in addition to Japan had expressed serious concerns about foreign exchange market volatility in a meeting leading up to a ASEAN+3 finance ministers and central bank governors conference in the Georgian capital Tbilisi last week.

ASEAN+3 groups the 10-member Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) as well as Japan, China and South Korea.

“The current concerns are not confined to Japan,” Kanda said. 

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