Business
China’s exports jump 12.4% in March as bigger US tariff hikes loom
China’s exports jumped 12.4% in March from a year earlier in a last-minute flurry of activity as companies rushed to beat increases in U.S. tariffs imposed by U.S. President Donald Trump, and analysts forecast sharp setbacks ahead.
Imports fell 4.3% to $211.3 billion in March, the customs administration reported, far exceeded by exports worth $313.9 billion, leaving a trade surplus of $102.6 billion.
“But shipments are set to drop back over the coming months and quarters,” Julian Evans-Pritchard of Capital Economics said in a report. “We think it could be years before Chinese exports regain current levels.”
China’s trade surplus surged to a record $992.2 billion in 2024 and its exports climbed 5.4%, helping to make up for sluggish growth at home as the country slowly recovers from a crisis in its property market and lingering impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic.
After taking office, Trump first ordered a 10% increase in tariffs on imports from China. He later raised that to 20%. Now, China is facing 145% tariffs on most of its exports to the United States, based on the most recent revisions in Trump’s trade policies. China has responded with 125% tariffs on U.S. products and other measures meant to pinch the U.S. where it hurts most, such as controls on exports of critical minerals needed in high-tech manufacturing, such as electric vehicle production.
U.S. flag themed wearables are displayed at the Yiwu International Trade Market in Yiwu, eastern China’s Zhejiang province, Thursday, April 10, 2025. (AP Photo/Ng Han Guan)
China’s trade surplus with the United States was $27.6 billion in March as its exports rose 4.5%. It logged a surplus of $76.6 billion with the U.S. in January-March even though exports were up only 2.3% the first two months of the year.
“Savvy U.S. importers likely saw tariff hikes coming in April onward and frontloaded imports,” ING Economics said in a report, but that trend is likely to fall off as importers use up their inventories while they watch for the latest twists and turns in unpredictable U.S. trade policy.
“As a result, it’s likely that direct trade between the U.S. and China will crater starting in April,” it said.
Trade data already show some impact from the higher tariffs, with exports of lower value-added items like shoes and clothing falling, while shipments of computer chips, household appliances and vehicles surged. China’s biggest exports in the first three months of the year were electronic machinery, a broad category that includes smart phones and laptops, and high-tech products, the report shows.
Workers pack fashion accessories for delivery at the Yiwu International Trade Market in Yiwu, eastern China’s Zhejiang province on Thursday, April 10, 2025. (AP Photo/Ng Han Guan)
China’s exports of rare earths fell nearly 11% in the first quarter of the year as Beijing tightened controls on the strategically vital materials used in electric vehicles and other high-tech products.
The customs data showed total exports from the world’s second largest economy rose 5.8% in the first three months of the year from a year earlier while imports sank 7%, leaving a trade surplus of $273 billion.
Late Friday, Trump exempted most computer-related goods from the higher China-specific tariffs, including laptops, smartphones and the components needed to make them, though his administration says he plans to announce those within days. Such products accounted for nearly $174 billion in U.S. imports from China last year.
Still, the harsh U.S. tariffs on Chinese products have raised questions about whether exporters might end up diverting their goods to other overseas markets as they give up on selling to American consumers due to the more than doubling of import duties.
The biggest increases in exports in March were to China’s Southeast Asian neighbors, which saw the dollar value of shipments from China jump 8% in March from a year earlier. Exports to Africa rose more than 11% and those to India by nearly 14%.
A customs administration spokesperson, Lyu Daliang, said China was facing a “complex and severe external situation” but that the sky would not fall. He pointed to China’s diversified export options and huge domestic market.
When asked about falling Chinese imports, he told reporters in Beijing that China has been the world’s second largest importer for 16 straight years, increasing its share of global imports from about 8% to 10.5%.
“At present and in the future, China’s import growth space is huge, and the large Chinese market is always a great opportunity for the world,” he said.
Chinese President Xi Jinping was visiting Vietnam on Monday as part of a regional tour that also will take him to Malaysia and Cambodia, giving him an opportunity to firm up trade ties with other Asian countries that also are facing potentially steep tariffs, though last week Trump delayed enforcing them by 90 days.
China’s exports to Vietnam jumped nearly 17% last month from a year earlier, while its imports fell 2.7%
Wall Street was poised to add to last week’s gains when markets open on Monday as investors juggle incoming corporate earnings along with possible tariff updates from the U.S. and its trading partners.
Futures for the S&P 500 gained 1.4% before the bell Monday, while futures for the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 1%. Nasdaq futures were up 1.7%.
Shares rose in technology companies that stood to be hit hardest by the U.S. tariffs against China after President Donald Trump said he was temporarily exempting smartphones, computers and other electronics from the import fees.
Apple jumped close to 6% in premarket trading Monday, with computer maker Dell and chipmaker Super Micro Computer also up by about the same amount.
Goldman Sachs rose 1.5% after the New York investment bank topped Wall Street’s first-quarter earnings and revenue targets.
Coming later this week are the latest financial results from Bank of America, United Airlines and Netflix, among others.
The Chinese Ministry of Commerce said Trump’s weekend tariffs move was “a small step” toward fixing its wrongful action of what the U.S. president calls reciprocal tariffs. China urged him to completely cancel them.
China had announced Friday that it was boosting its tariffs on U.S. products to 125% in the latest tit-for-tat increase following Trump’s escalations on imports from China.
Hong Kong’s Hang Seng jumped 2.4% to 21,417.40, while the Shanghai Composite index picked up 0.8% to 3,262.81 after the government reported that China’s exports surged 12.4% in March from a year earlier in a last-minute flurry of activity as companies rushed to beat increases in U.S. tariffs imposed by Trump.
The Taiex fell 0.1% in Taiwan, whose economy is heavily dependent on exports of computer chips and other high-tech goods after Trump said the new chip tariffs will be announced “over the next week.”
The friction between the world’s two largest economies could cause widespread damage and a possible global recession, even after Trump recently announced a 90-day pause on some of his tariffs for other countries, except for China.
In early European trading, Germany’s DAX gained 2.4%, the CAC 40 in Paris was up 2.1% and Britain’s FTSE 100 added 1.7%.
Asian shares logged sturdy gains. Japan’s Nikkei 225 rose 1.2% to 33,982.36 and South Korea’s Kospi gained 1% to 2,455.89.
Shares in technology companies surged, with Tokyo Electron up 1.4% and Advantest, a testing equipment maker, up 4.9%. South Korea’s biggest company, Samsung Electronics, gained 1.8%.
Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 added 1.3%, closing at 7,748.60.
On Friday, the S&P 500 rose 1.8%, capping a chaotic and historic week. The Dow gained 1.6% and the Nasdaq composite jumped 2.1%. For the week, they each logged gains between 5% and 7%.
Stocks kicked higher as pressure eased a bit from within the U.S. bond market, which was flashing serious warning signals last week that drew Trump’s attention.
The yield on the 10-year Treasury eased to 4.44% early Monday. On Friday, it topped 4.58% in the morning, up from 4.01% a week ago. That’s a major move for a market that typically measures things in hundredths of a percentage point.
U.S. benchmark crude oil reversed early losses, gaining 83 cents to $62.33 per barrel. Brent crude, the international standard, climbed 81 cents to $65.57 per barrel.
The U.S. dollar dropped to 143.06 Japanese yen from 143.91 yen. The euro climbed to $1.1404 from $1.1320.
Thailand’s finance and commerce ministers will lead a delegation to the United States to meet Trump administration officials and push for relief from planned heavy tariffs, a government spokesperson said on Monday.
An advance team led by Finance Minister Pichai Chunhavajira will travel to the United States on Thursday for meetings with private sector groups, with Commerce Minister Pichai Naripthaphan to join later, spokesperson Jirayu Houngsub said.
The Thai delegation expects to meet with US government representatives on Monday, April 21, he said.
Thailand is facing a 36% tariff under US President Donald Trump’s trade measures, and is hoping to use a 90-day pause on the levies to prepare a response.
The United States was Thailand’s largest export market last year with shipments of $55 billion. Washington has put its bilateral trade deficit with Thailand at $45.6 billion.
Thailand’s strategy will focus on industries where the US and Thailand share interests, such as pet food, opening markets, and increasing US imports, Jirayu said.
He also said there would be stricter inspections on Thai exports to ensure other countries were not using Thailand to circumvent US taxes.
Thai officials have previously said they would increase US imports, cut tariffs on corn and increase joint investments in the United States.
Gold continues to be considered a safe-haven metal in most parts of the world, including Pakistan, where the latest increase took its price to an unprecedented high on Saturday.
In Pakistan, the price of 24-karat gold surged to Rs340,600 per tola after the latest increase of Rs1,800.
The price of 10-gram gold soared to Rs292,009 per tola after an increase of 1,543.
A day earlier (Friday), the price of 24-karat gold increased by Rs10,000 per tola, which is said to be the highest one-time rise, reaching Rs338,800. The price of 10 grams of gold rose by Rs8,573, bringing it to Rs290,466.
On Saturday, the gold price in international market rose to $3,236 per ounce after an increase of $18.
Gold prices have been on the rise amid uncertainty triggered by US President Donald Trump’s recent announcement of imposition of global import tariffs.
Although Trump later announced 90-day reprieve, the stock markets and investment avenues all over the world remain jittery.
Also Read: Gold price hikes by Rs10,000 per tola
In the global market, gold surged by $100 per ounce for the first time, hitting $3,218 on Friday.
It marked a historic day as both per tola price in Pakistan rose by Rs10,000 and the international price jumped by $100 in a single day.
Earlier in the week, the price of 24-karat per tola gold increased by Rs7,800 and was traded at Rs328,800 compared to its sale at Rs321,000 on the previous trading day (Wednesday), All Pakistan Sarafa Gems and Jewellers Association reported.
The prices of 10 grams of 24 karat also increased by Rs6,688 to Rs281,893 from Rs275,205 whereas the prices of 10-gram 22-karat gold also went up by Rs6,131 to Rs258,411 from Rs252,280.
The price of per tola silver witnessed an increase of Rs64 and closed at Rs3,234 and that of 10-gram silver rose by Rs55 to close at Rs2,772.
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