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India’s rapid take-up of electric vehicles prompts rethink about long-term fuel needs

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India's rapid take-up of electric vehicles prompts rethink about long-term fuel needs

The rapid take-up of electric vehicles in India’s fledgling market has prompted a major rethink about the country’s long-term fuel needs as refiners in Asia’s third-largest economy hasten their shift away from oil production.

India, one of the world’s fastest-growing oil markets, has lagged behind major economic peers in Europe and Asia in the adoption of EVs but sales are now picking up and investment in the production of new autos and energy infrastructure is accelerating.

The faster-than-anticipated industry growth means India’s gasoline consumption will peak sooner than previously thought, some analysts and industry participants say, forcing top oil firms to expedite transition plans to alternative business lines, notably increased petrochemical manufacturing.

“We were anticipating that peak gasoline demand will be around 2040-2045 earlier, but going by the trend and the speed with which we are developing the ecosystem around EVs, the peak demand would be the mid-2030s,” Debasish Mishra, Partner, energy, resources and industrials, Deloitte India told Reuters. He expects diesel demand to peak around the same time as petrol.

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Slowing fuel demand will be quite visible by around 2030 as EV technologies stabilise, compared with an earlier projection of the 2040s, an industry source at an India-based refinery told Reuters, adding that the heavy trucking sector will see changes a little later.

“Refiners are already investing in petrochemical integration to cope with the potential loss in fuel demand,” said the source who declined to be named because he is not authorised to speak to the media.

Currently, around 90% of Indian petrochemical demand is met by China, he said, so a shift by Indian refiners towards domestic chemical needs could dramatically change supply dynamics.

Indian refiners are investing billions of dollars to raise petrochemical capacity. Indian Oil Corp (IOC.NS), the country’s top refiner, is raising the petrochemical capacity at its Panipat refinery by 13% and building new plants linked to its Paradip and Gujarat refineries.

Reliance Industries Ltd (RELI.NS), operator of the world’s biggest refining complex, plans to invest 750 billion rupees ($9.38 billion) to expand its chemical business, while Essar Group plans to set up a 400 billion rupee petrochemical complex in east India.

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Nayara Energy (ESRO.M3) expects 15-20 new integrated petrochemical plants will start in the next decade.

EVs, TRUCKS

China currently dominates global EV production and domestic adoption of new energy vehicles is well advanced. The China Passenger Car Association expects sales of new energy cars, mainly EVs, to hit 8.5 million units this year, or 36% of all new sales.

Despite new momentum in India, the question for the country is whether it will be enough to ultimately shake its fossil fuel dependency.
“Limited charging infrastructure, low domestic EV production and high EV battery costs remain some of the key hurdles in maintaining strong EV uptake in the long run,” said Dylan Sim, oil market analyst at FGE.

India’s progress is modest by global comparisons, however, last year registered EVs tripled to 1.01 million from 2021, most of them two- and three-wheelers.

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While EVs make up just 1% of the 3 million cars sold each year, New Delhi wants to grow this to 30% by 2030 and has introduced a range of policies to get there, including tax breaks for consumers.

India’s state refiners, which dominate fuel retailers, plan to set up EV charging facilities at more than 22,000 fuel stations and highways by 2024.

The private sector is also providing EV bulls hope.

Gurugram-headquartered ride-hailing service Blusmart, which owns a fleet of 3,000 EVs, has seen brisk growth.

Its co-founder Punit Goyal told Reuters it now provides 500,000 monthly trips, up from about 35,000 when it started in 2019.

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Local automakers like Tata Motors and Mahindra & Mahindra have made big investments while foreign players like Kia and BYD have announced premium models for the Indian market.

About 40% of India’s fuel demand is for diesel, which is mostly used by trucks.
Chetan Maini, chairman of Sun Mobility, which provides electric mobility solutions, said India’s smaller trucks, including three-wheelers, are likely to be early adopters in the transition given the cost advantage for e-commerce and delivery firms.

His company currently has 80 battery swapping stations in Delhi for two- and three-wheelers and plans to set up 200 by March.

“A large opportunity by 2030 is going to be on the trucking side because the cost economics will work out really well,” Maini said.

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Microsoft to invest 2.2bn dollars in cloud and AI services in Malaysia

Microsoft to invest 2.2bn dollars in cloud and AI services in Malaysia

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Microsoft to invest 2.2bn dollars in cloud and AI services in Malaysia

Microsoft (MSFT.O) said on Thursday it will invest $2.2 billion over the next four years in Malaysia to expand cloud and artificial intelligence (AI) services in the company’s latest push to promote its generative AI technology in Asia.

The investment, the largest in Microsoft’s 32-year history in Malaysia, will include building cloud and AI infrastructure, creating AI-skilling opportunities for 200,000 people, and supporting the country’s developers, the company said.

“We want to make sure we have world class infrastructure right here in the country so that every organisation and start-up can benefit,” Microsoft Chief Executive Satya Nadella said during a visit to Kuala Lumpur.

Microsoft will also work with the Malaysian government to establish a national AI Centre of Excellence and enhance the nation’s cybersecurity capabilities, the company said in a statement.

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Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim, who met Nadella on Thursday, said the investment supported Malaysia’s efforts in developing its AI capabilities.

Microsoft is trying to expand its support for the development of AI globally. Nadella this week announced a $1.7 billion investment in neighbouring Indonesia and said Microsoft would open its first regional data centre in Thailand.

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Nvidia supplier SK Hynix says HBM chips almost sold out for 2025

Nvidia supplier SK Hynix says HBM chips almost sold out for 2025

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Nvidia supplier SK Hynix says HBM chips almost sold out for 2025

South Korea’s SK Hynix (000660.KS) said on Thursday that its high-bandwidth memory (HBM) chips used in AI chipsets were sold out for this year and almost sold out for 2025 as businesses aggressively expand artificial intelligence services.

“The HBM market is expected to continue to grow as data and (AI) model sizes increase,” Chief Executive Officer Kwak Noh-Jung told a news conference. “Annual demand growth is expected to be about 60% in the mid-to long-term.”

SK Hynix which competes with U.S. rival Micron (MU.O) and domestic behemoth Samsung Electronics (005930.KS) in HBM was until March the sole supplier of HBM chips to Nvidia, according to analysts who add that major AI chip purchasers are keen to diversify their suppliers to better maintain operating margins. Nvidia commands some 80% of the AI chip market.

Micron has also said its HBM chips were sold out for 2024 and that the majority of its 2025 supply was already allocated. It plans to provide samples for its 12-layer HBM3E chips to customers in March.

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“As AI functions and performance are being upgraded faster than expected, customer demand for ultra-high-performance chips such as the 12-layer chips appear to be increasing faster than for 8-layer HBM3Es,” said Jeff Kim, head of research at KB Securities.

Samsung Electronics (005930.KS) which plans to produce its HBM3E 12-layer chips in the second quarter, said this week that this year’s shipments of HBM chips are expected to increase more than three-fold and it has completed supply discussions with customers. It did not elaborate further.

Last month, SK Hynix announced a $3.87 billion plan to build an advanced chip packaging plant in the U.S. state of Indiana with an HBM chip line and a 5.3 trillion won ($3.9 billion) investment in a new DRAM chip factory at home with a focus on HBMs.

Kwak said investment in HBM differed from past patterns in the memory chip industry in that capacity is being increased after making certain of demand first.

By 2028, the portion of chips made for AI, such as HBM and high-capacity DRAM modules, is expected to account for 61% of all memory volume in terms of value from about 5% in 2023, SK Hynix’s head of AI infrastructure Justin Kim said.

Last week, SK Hynix said in a post-earnings conference call that there may be a shortage of regular memory chips for smartphones, personal computers and network servers by the year’s end if demand for tech devices exceeds expectations.

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The Nvidia (NVDA.O) supplier and the world’s second-largest memory chipmaker will begin sending samples of its latest HBM chip, called the 12-layer HBM3E, in May and begin mass producing them in the third quarter.

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Qualcomm jumps as AI sparks rebound in Chinese smartphone market

Qualcomm jumps as AI sparks rebound in Chinese smartphone market

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Qualcomm jumps as AI sparks rebound in Chinese smartphone market

Qualcomm (QCOM.O) shares rose 4% in premarket trading on Thursday after the smartphone-focused chipmaker signaled an AI-fueled rebound in demand, especially in China, after a two-year slump.

Sales to Chinese smartphone makers jumped 40% in the first half of its fiscal year, the company said on Wednesday, as buyers there gravitate toward higher-priced devices that can accommodate AI chatbots.

“Chinese vendors who traditionally relied more on MediaTek, are going to start leveraging Qualcomm’s high-end chips more as they push hard into the AI Agenda,” said IDC analyst Nabila Popal.

“They further represent an upside for Qualcomm because majority of the recovery is also going to be driven by Chinese OEMs this year, coming from a tough last two years.”

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Qualcomm on Wednesday projected third-quarter sales that were above estimates as it also benefits from its IoT (Internet of things) and auto segments.

The company, the biggest supplier of smartphone chips, was on course to add more than $8 billion to its market value based on premarket movements. Other semiconductor firms such as Arm and Broadcom (AVGO.O) rose 2.8% and 2.4%, respectively.

According to preliminary data from research firm IDC, in the high-end segment, the AI buzz and the foldable products allowed the Android smartphone vendors to further differentiate themselves from Apple (AAPL.O) and garnered increased interest from Chinese consumers in the first quarter of 2024.

“We’re optimistic that numbers can be driven higher, given last year’s muted Android cycle and the likelihood of IoT(internet of things) improvement as inventory normalizes,” analysts at Wolfe Research said.

At least 14 analysts raised their price targets on Qualcomm, according to LSEG data.

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Qualcomm’s shares have gained 13.5% this year following a 31.5% rise in 2023.

Shares of Apple, which is set to report earnings after market closes on Thursday, were up 1.05% in premarket trading.

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