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Can China broker peace between Russia and Ukraine?

Can China broker peace between Russia and Ukraine?

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Can China broker peace between Russia and Ukraine?

Chinese President Xi Jinping is expected to soon visit Russia’s Vladimir Putin and, according to media, hold a virtual meeting with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy weeks after China proposed a 12-point plan for peace in Ukraine.

China’s foreign ministry has said it is in communication with both sides and, while it has not confirmed Xi’s plan for talks with either Putin or Zelenskiy, there is speculation that China may try to get the rivals to the negotiating table.

Following are some of the issues China and others are likely to be taking into account as it considers prospects for peace in Ukraine.

WHY WOULD CHINA TRY TO MEDIATE?

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China has traditionally adhered to a principle of not interfering in other countries’ conflicts, especially the more distant ones.

But a peace deal struck in Beijing last week between Saudi Arabia and Iran highlights a Chinese aim to project itself as a responsible great power under Xi’s stewardship, analysts say.

“Xi would want to be seen on the global stage as a statesman whose influence at least equals that of the U.S. leader,” said Wang Jiangyu, a law professor at City University of Hong Kong.

China is also eager to deflect criticism that when it comes to Ukraine, it has sided with the aggressor, Russia, which calls its invasion in February last year a “special military operation”.

Attempting to broker peace is a low-cost venture that can yield high returns for China, even if a quick breakthrough is highly unlikely, analysts say.

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WHAT IS CHINA’S PROPOSAL FOR PEACE?

China urged both sides to agree to a gradual de-escalation leading to a comprehensive ceasefire in its 12-point paper on the “political resolution of the Ukraine crisis”.

While the plan called for the protection of civilians and that the sovereignty of all countries be respected, China has refrained from condemning Russia for its invasion.

The plan got lukewarm welcomes in both Russia and Ukraine while the United States and NATO were sceptical.

Ukraine, which says it will only consider peace settlements after Russian troops leave Ukrainian territory, took issue with the plan for not stating that Russia should withdraw behind borders in place since the Soviet Union collapsed in 1991, but later said it was open to “parts of the plan”.

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Russia said it would take a “nuanced study” of the plan but did not see any sign for a peaceful resolution for now.

The US said China presented itself publicly as neutral and seeking peace while at the same time reflected Russia’s “false narrative” about the war, provided it with non-lethal assistance and was considering lethal assistance. China denies that.

NATO said China did not have much credibility as a mediator on Ukraine.

WHAT ROLE COULD CHINA PLAY?

Analysts say it will be hard for China to get Russia and Ukraine to the negotiating table, unlike Saudi Arabia and Iran, which presented an easier diplomatic win.

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“Saudi Arabia and Iran actually want to talk and improve relations, while Russia and Ukraine don’t, at least for now,” said Yun Sun, director of the China Program at the Washington-based Stimson Center.

However, Xi could act as a backchannel, Yun said, which could start momentum towards talks that for now seem unlikely with both sides hardening their stances in the grinding war.

A fruitless attempt by NATO member Turkey to host dialogue in Istanbul in the weeks after the war began last year underscored the difficulty.

WHAT LEVERAGE DOES CHINA HAVE?

Some analysts say China is in a better position than Turkey to mediate because it has more leverage over Russia.

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China is Russia’s most important ally and has been buying Russian oil and provided a market for Russian goods shunned by Western countries.

China also has some leverage over Ukraine, which would not want to torpedo the chances of Chinese support for its reconstruction, said Samuel Ramani, a Russia expert at Oxford University.

China expanded trade with Ukraine after Russia invaded Crimea in 2014 and did not recognise the annexed territory as Russian, he said.

“Most importantly, Zelenskiy does not want to provoke China so much that they start arming Russia,” Ramani said.

CAN CHINA BE AN HONEST BROKER?

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China’s close ties with Russia mean its role will be viewed with deep scepticism. Days before Russia invaded Ukraine, China and Russia announced a “no-limits” partnership.

While China has called for peace since the beginning of the war, it has largely reflected the Russian position that NATO threatened Russia with its eastward expansion while Ukraine’s Western allies fanned the flames of war by supplying it with tanks and missiles.

Andrew Small, senior fellow at the German Marshall Fund, said China wants to be seen as doing its part for peace but is not prepared to press Putin to stop the war and sacrifice its relations with Russia.

“Beijing hasn’t thrown its weight around nor sought to coerce Russia into doing anything,” he said.

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Netherlands remembers World War Two dead amid tight security

Netherlands remembers World War Two dead amid tight security

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Netherlands remembers World War Two dead amid tight security

Dutch King Willem-Alexander and Prime Minister Mark Rutte joined around 4,000 people on Saturday for the country’s annual World War Two remembrance ceremony amid restricted public access and heightened security due to the war in Gaza.

The ceremony on Amsterdam’s central Dam square, with the traditional two minutes of silence at 8 pm (1800 GMT) to commemorate the victims of World War Two, passed smoothly despite fears that there might be protests.

Normally some 20,000 people attend the Dam commemoration without having to register. But earlier this week municipal authorities announced unprecedented security measures to keep the ceremony safe and avoid possible disruptions linked to the Israel-Hamas war.

At the opening of a Holocaust Museum in Amsterdam in March, pro-Palestinian protesters opposed to Israel’s military campaign in Gaza set off fireworks and booed Israeli President Isaac Herzog as he arrived on a visit.

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Every town and the city in the Netherlands holds its own remembrance ceremony on May 4 and tens of thousands of people attend the events. The Netherlands then marks on May 5 the anniversary of its liberation from Nazi occupation in 1945. 

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Spain’s Sanchez says he will stay on as PM despite wife’s graft probe

Spain’s Sanchez says he will stay on as PM despite wife’s graft probe

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Spain's Sanchez says he will stay on as PM despite wife's graft probe

Spain’s Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez said that he would continue in office in response to a graft probe of his wife that he says amounts to a campaign of harassment.

Sanchez announced last Wednesday that he was mulling resignation after a Madrid court opened a preliminary probe into suspected influence peddling and corruption targeting his wife Begona Gomez.

“I need to stop and think whether I should continue to head the government or whether I should give up this honour,” he wrote in a four-page letter posted on X, formerly Twitter.

Thousands of supporters massed outside the headquarters of Sanchez’s Socialist party in Madrid on Saturday chanting “Pedro, stay!”

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Sanchez has said the move against his wife is part of a campaign of “harassment” against them both waged by “media heavily influenced by the right and far right” and supported by the conservative opposition.

Spain’s public prosecutor’s office on Thursday requested the dismissal of the investigation.

But Sanchez, an expert in political survival who has made a career out of taking political gambles, has suspended all his public duties and retreated into silence.

Last Thursday, he had been due to launch his party’s campaign for the May 12 regional elections in Catalonia in which his Socialists hope to oust the pro-independence forces from power.

‘Harassment’ campaign

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The court opened its investigation into Sanchez’s wife in response to a complaint by anti-corruption pressure group Manos Limpias (Clean Hands), whose leader is linked to the far right.

The group, which has presented a litany of unsuccessful lawsuits against politicians in the past, said in a statement on Wednesday that it had based its complaint on media reports and could not vouch for their veracity.

While the court did not give details of the case, online news site El Confidencial said it was related to her ties to several private companies that received government funding or won public contracts.

Sanchez has been vilified by right-wing opponents and media because his minority government relies on the support of the hard-left and Catalan and Basque separatist parties to pass laws.

They have been especially angered by his decision to grant an amnesty to hundreds of Catalan separatists facing legal action over their roles in the northeastern region’s failed push for independence in 2017.

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That amnesty, in exchange for the support of Catalan separatist parties, still needs final approval in parliament.

The opposition has since Wednesday mocked Sanchez’s decision to withdraw from his public duties for a few days, dismissing it as an attempt to rally his supporters.

“A head of government can’t make a show of himself like a teenager and have everyone running after him, begging him not to leave and not to get angry,” the head of the main opposition Popular Party, Alberto Nunez Feijoo, said on Thursday.

Sanchez, he said, had subjected Spain to “international shame”. 

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Scores killed in Kenya after dam bursts following weeks of heavy flooding

Scores killed in Kenya after dam bursts following weeks of heavy flooding

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Scores killed in Kenya after dam bursts following weeks of heavy flooding

At least 42 people died when a dam burst its banks near a town in Kenya’s Rift Valley, the local governor told AFP on Monday, as heavy rains and floods battered the country.

The dam burst near Mai Mahiu in Nakuru county, washing away houses and cutting off a road, with rescuers digging through debris to find survivors.

“Forty-two dead, it’s a conservative estimate. There are still more in the mud, we are working on recovery,” said Nakuru governor Susan Kihika.

Monday’s dam collapse raises the total death toll over the March-May wet season to 120 as heavier than usual rainfall pounds East Africa, compounded by the El Nino weather pattern.

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Meanwhile, the Kenya Red Cross said Monday it had retrieved two bodies after a boat carrying “a large number of people” capsized at the weekend in flooded Tana River county in eastern Kenya, adding that 23 others had been rescued.

Video footage shared online and broadcast on television showed the crowded boat sinking, with people screaming as onlookers watched in horror.

On Saturday, officials said 76 people had lost their lives in Kenya since March.

Flash floods have submerged roads and neighbourhoods, leading to the displacement of more than 130,000 people across 24,000 households, many of them in the capital Nairobi, according to government figures released Saturday.

Schools have been forced to remain shut following mid-term holidays, after the education ministry announced Monday that it would postpone their reopening by one week due to “ongoing heavy rains”.

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“The devastating effects of the rains in some of the schools is so severe that it will be imprudent to risk the lives of learners and staff before water-tight measures are put in place to ensure adequate safety,” Education Minister Ezekiel Machogu said.

“Based on this assessment, the Ministry of Education has resolved to postpone the reopening of all primary and secondary schools by one week, to Monday, May 6, 2024,” he said.

Turmoil across the region
The monsoons have also wreaked havoc in neighbouring Tanzania, where at least 155 people have been killed in flooding and landslides.

In Burundi, one of the world’s poorest countries, around 96,000 people have been displaced by months of relentless rains, the United Nations and the government said earlier this month.

Uganda has also suffered heavy storms that have caused riverbanks to burst, with two deaths confirmed and several hundred villagers displaced.

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Monday’s dam collapse comes six years after a similar accident at Solai in Nakuru county killed 48 people, sending millions of litres of muddy waters raging through homes and destroying power lines.

The May 2018 disaster involving a private reservoir on a coffee estate also followed weeks of torrential rains that sparked deadly floods and mudslides.

El Nino is a naturally occurring climate pattern typically associated with increased heat worldwide, leading to drought in some parts of the world and heavy rains elsewhere.

Late last year, more than 300 people died in rains and floods in Kenya, Somalia and Ethiopia, just as the region was trying to recover from its worst drought in four decades that left millions of people hungry.

The UN’s World Meteorological Organization said in March that the latest El Nino is one of the five strongest ever recorded.

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