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Investors rethink recession plays, boosting US stock market laggards

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Investors rethink recession plays, boosting US stock market laggards

A US stocks rally is showing signs of expanding beyond the cluster of giant growth and tech names that have led gains this year, as investors reposition portfolios primed for a widely expected recession.

For months, investors piled into a handful of megacap companies seen as safe bets in uncertain times, spurring a rally that has lifted the S&P 500 nearly 12 per cent year-to-date, concentrated in a small group of stocks.

As the US economy holds up despite higher interest rates, fears of an imminent downturn are fading. Some investors have started dipping their toes into economically sensitive market areas that have been out of favor this year including small caps, energy shares and industrial stocks – all of which have seen hefty rallies in June.

“We’re seeing indications that the economy is going to be more resilient to headwinds,” said Tim Murray, a capital market strategist in T Rowe Price’s multi-asset division. “There’s reason to believe that the pessimism we saw at the start of the year is giving way to a stronger-than-expected market.”

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Murray has increased his allocation to small-cap stocks, which tend to be among the most direct beneficiaries of economic growth. The Russell 2000 small cap index of small cap companies has surged 6.6pc this month. The index is up 5.9pc year-to-date

Other rebounding segments in June include the S&P 500 energy sector, which has gained 6pc this month and S&P 500 industrials, up 5.7pc. Energy is down 7.6pc year-to-date, while industrials have risen nearly 4pc.

By contrast, the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 has gained about 2pc this month – though the recent underperformance follows a nearly 33pc year-to-date surge on excitement over developments in artificial intelligence.

A broadening equity rally would be a welcome development for many investors, who have worried about the market’s narrow leadership. Just seven stocks – Apple Inc, Microsoft Corp, Alphabet Inc, Amazon.com Inc, Nvidia Corp, Meta Platforms Inc, and Tesla Inc – have been responsible for almost all of the S&P 500’s gains this year, data from S&P Dow Jones Indices showed.

“This kind of dominance is unusual but you’re starting to see it turn around,” said Howard Silverblatt, senior index analyst at S&P Dow Jones Indices.

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Ten of the 11 S&P 500 sectors are firmer for the month to date, compared to only six for the year. An additional sign that investors are looking further afield can be seen in the market’s breadth: the percentage of S&P 500 stocks trading above their 200-day moving average stood at nearly 54pc on Friday, up from a low of 38pc in March. That is still off from the high of 76pc reached in February, however.

Stronger-than-expected jobs growth and robust consumer spending have been among the data points that have bolstered investors’ economic outlook.

Among the firms revising recession forecasts were Goldman Sachs, which in the past week cut its probability of a recession in the next 12 months to 25pc from 35pc, while Nuveen’s Chief Investment Officer Saira Malik recently wrote that a “mild” recession has likely been delayed from late 2023 to sometime in 2024.

Investors in the coming week will be watching U.S. consumer price data on Tuesday for signs that the Fed’s rate hikes are continuing to cool inflation without badly hurting growth. The Fed concludes its two-day monetary policy meeting on Wednesday, and while most market participants expect the U.S. central bank to leave rates unchanged, many will also be gauging policymakers’ appetite for future tightening.

Some market watchers believe it is too early for economic optimism. Analysts at Capital Economics wrote on Thursday that the small-caps rally was likely premature, saying they expected softer growth in coming months. Jobless claims released on Thursday were higher than expected, a sign that the labor market could be cooling.

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Others, however, are more optimistic. Max Wasserman, senior portfolio manager at Miramar Capital, has been increasing his positions in underperforming consumer stocks such as Starbucks Corp (SBUX.O) and Target Corp (TGT.N), respectively down around 1pc and 15pc year-to-date. He expects restaurants and retailers to outperform as growth stabilizes in the second half of the year.

“That’s when we think we will be rewarded,” he said.

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Massive reduction in Punjab flour prices, 20kg bag costing Rs1,000 less: Bilal Yasinv

Massive reduction in Punjab flour prices, 20kg bag costing Rs1,000 less: Bilal Yasinv

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Massive reduction in Punjab flour prices, 20kg bag costing Rs1,000 less: Bilal Yasinv

Highlighting a marked decrease in flour prices, Punjab Food Minister Bilal Yasin on Tuesday said the province already had enough wheat stock to meet the entire needs for year.

Yasin said 20 kilogramme flour bag price had decreased Rs1,000 during the past month and was available for Rs1,700 to Rs1,800 in the market. The current rate of 10 kilogramme bag was Rs900, he added.

Read more: Punjab govt promises to implement new bread prices, blasts those criticising the move

In a statement, the provincial food minister also promised to take action against those responsible for the wheat import scandal which has triggered a crisis for the farmers who are unable to get the promised minimum support price of Rs3,900 per 40 kilogramme as the market is offering much lower rates of Rs2,800 to Rs3,200.

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He reiterated the government stance that the crisis was a result of the caretaker government’s decision of wheat import.

About the ongoing probe ordered by Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif by constituting a fact-finding committee, Yasin said the government was determined to make the report public and hold those accountable behind the episode.

NO MORE WHEAT IMPORT?

He said Punjab currently had carry-forward stock of 2.3 million metric tons of wheat, which was sufficient for period till the next wheat crop harvesting in 2024-25.

The statement is very important because of the fact that Pakistan won’t need any wheat import till even during the next fiscal year as the new wheat crop has already arrived in the market, thus saving precious foreign reserves amid the prevailing financial crisis, which would also keep the rupee strong as a result.

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PUNJAB ROTI PRICES

As Punjab Chief Minister Maryam Nawaz from day one has made price control her primary focus, Yasin also talked about the government decision to slash the roti prices.

“Roti and naan are available at the notified rates across Punjab,” said the minister.

Last month, the Punjab government had slashed the bread prices which jumped higher for a long period due to the increase in wheat prices. Roti price is fixed at Rs16 and naan price at Rs20 – a move that produced the desired results despite initial resistance faced during the first week or so.

Yasin mentioned that around 50 per cent of population in Punjab was living in cities and the people from low-income groups were very happy after the reduction in flour prices.

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Tandoor owners to go on strike over Punjab roti prices notification

Tandoor owners to go on strike over Punjab roti prices notification

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Tandoor owners to go on strike over Punjab roti prices notification

Tandoor owners in Punjab have announced a province-wide strike over the issue bread prices as Chief Minister Maryam Nawaz directed the administration to ensure effective implementation of the new rates.

Soon after assuming the office, Maryam had made price control a top priority of her government and the latest orders are a continuation of a series of measure taken in this regard.

Read more: Administration activated for price control, crackdown on hoarders: Maryam

It is the Muttahida Nanbai Association – a representative body of tandoor owners – announced its decision to start strike from tomorrow (Wednesday), saying the Punjab government had failed to meet their demands.

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Its president, Aftab Gul, says the district administration in Lahore isn’t giving any attention to their demand and they are shutting their businesses across Punjab from Wednesday to register their protest.

The tandoor owners are demanding a new notification of bread prices while calling for keeping the naan prices open and providing flour for roti to ensure implementation of government orders regarding fixing Rs16 as roti prices.

On the other hand, the chief minister in a meeting with assistant commissioners from across Punjab on Monday issued directions on different issues, including monitoring the bread prices notification.

The Punjab government is of the view that flour prices have been slashed – a development that must be reflected in the roti and naan rates.

Read more: Massive reduction in Punjab flour prices, 20kg bag costing Rs1,000 less: Bilal Yasin

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It is not just the low-income workers living separately from their families due to their livelihood compulsions but also a large number of households prefer buying bread from tandoors.

In fact, morning breakfast with naan channa is a tradition in the province, as people young and old rush to the eateries to buy their favourite combo.

Also on Tuesday, Punjab Food Minister Bilal Yasin highlighted a marked decrease in flour prices and said the province already had enough wheat stock to meet the entire needs for year.

Yasin said 20 kilogramme flour bag price had decreased Rs1,000 during the past month and was available for Rs1,700 to Rs1,800 in the market. The current rate of 10 kilogramme bag was Rs900, he added.

Yasin also talked about the government decision to slash the roti prices. “Roti and naan are available at the notified rates across Punjab,” said the minister.

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Last month, the Punjab government had slashed the bread prices which jumped higher for a long period due to the increase in wheat prices. Roti price is fixed at Rs16 and naan price at Rs20 – a move that produced the desired results despite initial resistance faced during the first week or so.

Yasin mentioned that around 50 per cent of population in Punjab was living in cities and the people from low-income groups – who worst affected by inflation – were very happy after the reduction in flour prices. 

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Japan warns of action over volatile currency, notes other nations too share the concerns

Japan warns of action over volatile currency, notes other nations too share the concerns

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Japan warns of action over volatile currency, notes other nations too share the concerns

Japan may have to take action against any disorderly, speculative-driven foreign exchange moves, the government’s top currency diplomat Masato Kanda said on Tuesday, reinforcing Tokyo’s readiness to intervene again to support a fragile yen to control inflation.

“It is preferable for exchange rates to remain in a stable manner following fundamentals, and if the market is functioning soundly in this way, there is of course no need for the government to intervene,” Kanda, Japan’s vice minister of finance for international affairs, told reporters.

“However, when there are excessive fluctuations or disorderly movements due to speculation, the market is not functioning and the government may have to take appropriate action. We will continue to take the same firm approach as we have in the past.”

Tokyo is suspected to have intervened on at least two separate days last week to support the Japanese yen after it tumbled to lows last seen more than three decades ago.

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Bank of Japan data suggested authorities spent more than 9 trillion yen ($58.4 billion) in defence of the currency, helping lift the yen from a 34-year low of 160.245 per dollar to a roughly one-month high of 151.86 over the span of a week.

Tokyo is estimated to have spent around $60bn during its last forays in the market to prop up the yen in September and October 2022.

The Japanese yen, which is down nearly 9 per cent on the dollar this year, was last trading around 154.19 in the Asian afternoon [07:39 GMT].

Japan is reluctant to intervene in the currency market considering its limited available dollar cash reserves and US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen’s comments that such moves were acceptable only in rare circumstances, said Hideo Kumano, chief economist at Dai-ichi Life Research Institute.

“Kanda might have started a verbal warning early on, as he wants to fix the exchange rate pegged at around the lower 150 yen level against the dollar at least until around May 15” when the US consumer price index data comes out, Kumano said.

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YIELD PRESSURE

Kanda, the top Japanese currency diplomat, said it is normal practice for a currency authority to not comment on whether it has carried out market intervention, when asked about recent speculations that Japan has conducted yen-buying interventions.

A weaker yen is a boon for Japanese exporters, but a headache for policymakers as it increases import costs, adds to inflationary pressures and squeezes households.

The yen has been under pressure despite the BOJ’s landmark decision to ditch negative interest rates in March as US interest rates have climbed and Japan’s have stayed near zero.

That dynamic has driven cash out of yen and into higher-yielding assets, with the pressure intensifying in recent months as expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts receded.

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Kanda noted that a number of countries in addition to Japan had expressed serious concerns about foreign exchange market volatility in a meeting leading up to a ASEAN+3 finance ministers and central bank governors conference in the Georgian capital Tbilisi last week.

ASEAN+3 groups the 10-member Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) as well as Japan, China and South Korea.

“The current concerns are not confined to Japan,” Kanda said. 

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