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Dar says budget growth-oriented, mentions Plan B if no progress made on IMF deal

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Dar says budget growth-oriented, mentions Plan B if no progress made on IMF deal

 Finance Minister Ishaq Dar said on Saturday the 2023-24 budget focused on economic growth and was thus different from the traditional documents. 

Addressing the post-budget press conference in the federal capital, Dar, in response to a question, said the government was working on a “Plan B” if the International Monetary Fund (IMF) did not release the pending loan. 

He, however, avoided to explain or share any details, saying, “Plan-B is always there”. He stated that the features of the plan could not be talked about in public and again reiterated that Pakistan would not default.

Read more: Exchange of fire: Miftah says budget isn’t sustainable, Dar ridicules default mongers 

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Meanwhile, Dar was still hopeful that Pakistan would pass its next IMF 9th review, but that he “didn’t think” it would clear reviews beyond that under the current programme.

Listing the long-term government objectives, Dar said the aim was to reverse all the economic losses suffered during the previous year. “Our first objective is to go back to achieve 2017 economic indicators,” he said, adding that Pakistan had faced deep economic vulnerability, which it had successfully overcome, resulting in a halt to any further decline. 

Dar said allocation had been made in the budget for holding general elections in the country, but he wasn’t the chief election commissioner to tell when the polls were to be held. Elections should be held on time, the finance minister noted. 

Expressing his views and answering different questions, Dar said Pakistan had achieved economic stability and increasing the growth rate was the next step, as he noted that the PTI chairman was responsible for political and economic uncertainty in the country. 

He said the projection of 3.5 per cent economic growth for the next fiscal year was a realistic. The target was on the lower side, but added that there was no more room in the budget to reduce the fiscal deficit target by any further.

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The minister said that the government had no plans to reschedule its debt to Paris Club creditor nations or to seek haircuts on its debt.

Dar said inflation would stay at 21 per cent in the next fiscal year [2023-24] while the government expenditure was estimated at Rs14,040 billion. 

He stressed the need for making Pakistan an economic power and noted that the private sector could play a pivotal role for achieving the goal. Only development could lead to generating employment opportunities for people, the minister added. 

About the agriculture sector, Dar mentioned withdrawal of duty on seeds and machinery besides allocation of Rs6bn to subsidise the fertilizer prices and Rs10bn under prime minister’s programme as the important measures to boost the sector by increasing the produce and improving the lives of farmers.

The finance minister was confident that the country would move forward towards achieving food security with the increase in productivity by implementing the measures suggested by the government.

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An amount of Rs35 billion as subsidy had been allocated for basic food commodities including wheat flour, ghee and lentils in the budget, which could be availed at utility stores, he told reporters.

According to Dar, fiscal deficit is estimated at Rs7.57 trillion – 7.1pc of GDP – for the upcoming year, which is the highest in history. It was Rs6.4tr recorded during the current fiscal year. However, it will be partially offset by an anticipated Rs650bn provincial cash surplus, bringing the consolidated deficit to Rs6.9tr or 6.5pc of GDP.

Moreover, interest payments, or debt servicing, budgeted for the next fiscal year has increased by a whopping 85pc from last year to Rs7,303bn — accounting for 55pc of total current expenditure — making it the single largest expenditure of the government.

He said new taxes worth Rs200 had been imposed in the next budget while the collection through the petroleum levy was estimated to Rs875bn.

The advance tax on a cash withdrawal of Rs50,000 or more during a day was designed to bring the non-filers into the tax net, the minister explained.

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About the tax collection, he said the target set for the next year was Rs9.2tr – a 23pc increase when compared with 2022-23.

When asked about the earlier proposal to provide petrol to the vehicles of 800cc or less capacity at a cheaper rate and whether if it has been discarded, Dar said the move had nothing to do with budget as it was pricing issue. The government had not gone for the move so far because some quarters were unable to digest that, he remarked.

In other words, what the finance minister wanted to say was that the move is still under consideration but he pointed to some hurdles or objections without naming anyone.

He said there was a need to reform the power sector which remained a significant stumbling block in the talks with the IMF. 

During the press conference, the minister pointed to the government emphasis on renewable energy and mentioned that the prices of solar panels would be reduced in the country after the withdrawal of different duties.

During the press conference, the minister pointed to the government emphasis on renewable energy and mentioned that the prices of solar panels would be reduced in the country after the withdrawal of different duties.

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The statement comes as the Sindh Assembly on Wednesday passed the Sindh Regulation of Electric Power Services Bill 2023 under which a power generation, transmission and distribution authority would be established in the province. It will also have the power to determine electricity tariff.

It is a huge progress given that the provincial governments are authorised to regulate electric [and even gas] services after the 18 Amendment. However, they had been reluctant to accept the responsibility until recently.

Meanwhile, the move would help curb line losses and power theft as the provinces, unlike the past because of being federal subject, won’t hesitate using law to punish the culprits.

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Massive reduction in Punjab flour prices, 20kg bag costing Rs1,000 less: Bilal Yasinv

Massive reduction in Punjab flour prices, 20kg bag costing Rs1,000 less: Bilal Yasinv

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Massive reduction in Punjab flour prices, 20kg bag costing Rs1,000 less: Bilal Yasinv

Highlighting a marked decrease in flour prices, Punjab Food Minister Bilal Yasin on Tuesday said the province already had enough wheat stock to meet the entire needs for year.

Yasin said 20 kilogramme flour bag price had decreased Rs1,000 during the past month and was available for Rs1,700 to Rs1,800 in the market. The current rate of 10 kilogramme bag was Rs900, he added.

Read more: Punjab govt promises to implement new bread prices, blasts those criticising the move

In a statement, the provincial food minister also promised to take action against those responsible for the wheat import scandal which has triggered a crisis for the farmers who are unable to get the promised minimum support price of Rs3,900 per 40 kilogramme as the market is offering much lower rates of Rs2,800 to Rs3,200.

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He reiterated the government stance that the crisis was a result of the caretaker government’s decision of wheat import.

About the ongoing probe ordered by Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif by constituting a fact-finding committee, Yasin said the government was determined to make the report public and hold those accountable behind the episode.

NO MORE WHEAT IMPORT?

He said Punjab currently had carry-forward stock of 2.3 million metric tons of wheat, which was sufficient for period till the next wheat crop harvesting in 2024-25.

The statement is very important because of the fact that Pakistan won’t need any wheat import till even during the next fiscal year as the new wheat crop has already arrived in the market, thus saving precious foreign reserves amid the prevailing financial crisis, which would also keep the rupee strong as a result.

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PUNJAB ROTI PRICES

As Punjab Chief Minister Maryam Nawaz from day one has made price control her primary focus, Yasin also talked about the government decision to slash the roti prices.

“Roti and naan are available at the notified rates across Punjab,” said the minister.

Last month, the Punjab government had slashed the bread prices which jumped higher for a long period due to the increase in wheat prices. Roti price is fixed at Rs16 and naan price at Rs20 – a move that produced the desired results despite initial resistance faced during the first week or so.

Yasin mentioned that around 50 per cent of population in Punjab was living in cities and the people from low-income groups were very happy after the reduction in flour prices.

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Tandoor owners to go on strike over Punjab roti prices notification

Tandoor owners to go on strike over Punjab roti prices notification

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Tandoor owners to go on strike over Punjab roti prices notification

Tandoor owners in Punjab have announced a province-wide strike over the issue bread prices as Chief Minister Maryam Nawaz directed the administration to ensure effective implementation of the new rates.

Soon after assuming the office, Maryam had made price control a top priority of her government and the latest orders are a continuation of a series of measure taken in this regard.

Read more: Administration activated for price control, crackdown on hoarders: Maryam

It is the Muttahida Nanbai Association – a representative body of tandoor owners – announced its decision to start strike from tomorrow (Wednesday), saying the Punjab government had failed to meet their demands.

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Its president, Aftab Gul, says the district administration in Lahore isn’t giving any attention to their demand and they are shutting their businesses across Punjab from Wednesday to register their protest.

The tandoor owners are demanding a new notification of bread prices while calling for keeping the naan prices open and providing flour for roti to ensure implementation of government orders regarding fixing Rs16 as roti prices.

On the other hand, the chief minister in a meeting with assistant commissioners from across Punjab on Monday issued directions on different issues, including monitoring the bread prices notification.

The Punjab government is of the view that flour prices have been slashed – a development that must be reflected in the roti and naan rates.

Read more: Massive reduction in Punjab flour prices, 20kg bag costing Rs1,000 less: Bilal Yasin

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It is not just the low-income workers living separately from their families due to their livelihood compulsions but also a large number of households prefer buying bread from tandoors.

In fact, morning breakfast with naan channa is a tradition in the province, as people young and old rush to the eateries to buy their favourite combo.

Also on Tuesday, Punjab Food Minister Bilal Yasin highlighted a marked decrease in flour prices and said the province already had enough wheat stock to meet the entire needs for year.

Yasin said 20 kilogramme flour bag price had decreased Rs1,000 during the past month and was available for Rs1,700 to Rs1,800 in the market. The current rate of 10 kilogramme bag was Rs900, he added.

Yasin also talked about the government decision to slash the roti prices. “Roti and naan are available at the notified rates across Punjab,” said the minister.

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Last month, the Punjab government had slashed the bread prices which jumped higher for a long period due to the increase in wheat prices. Roti price is fixed at Rs16 and naan price at Rs20 – a move that produced the desired results despite initial resistance faced during the first week or so.

Yasin mentioned that around 50 per cent of population in Punjab was living in cities and the people from low-income groups – who worst affected by inflation – were very happy after the reduction in flour prices. 

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Japan warns of action over volatile currency, notes other nations too share the concerns

Japan warns of action over volatile currency, notes other nations too share the concerns

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Japan warns of action over volatile currency, notes other nations too share the concerns

Japan may have to take action against any disorderly, speculative-driven foreign exchange moves, the government’s top currency diplomat Masato Kanda said on Tuesday, reinforcing Tokyo’s readiness to intervene again to support a fragile yen to control inflation.

“It is preferable for exchange rates to remain in a stable manner following fundamentals, and if the market is functioning soundly in this way, there is of course no need for the government to intervene,” Kanda, Japan’s vice minister of finance for international affairs, told reporters.

“However, when there are excessive fluctuations or disorderly movements due to speculation, the market is not functioning and the government may have to take appropriate action. We will continue to take the same firm approach as we have in the past.”

Tokyo is suspected to have intervened on at least two separate days last week to support the Japanese yen after it tumbled to lows last seen more than three decades ago.

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Bank of Japan data suggested authorities spent more than 9 trillion yen ($58.4 billion) in defence of the currency, helping lift the yen from a 34-year low of 160.245 per dollar to a roughly one-month high of 151.86 over the span of a week.

Tokyo is estimated to have spent around $60bn during its last forays in the market to prop up the yen in September and October 2022.

The Japanese yen, which is down nearly 9 per cent on the dollar this year, was last trading around 154.19 in the Asian afternoon [07:39 GMT].

Japan is reluctant to intervene in the currency market considering its limited available dollar cash reserves and US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen’s comments that such moves were acceptable only in rare circumstances, said Hideo Kumano, chief economist at Dai-ichi Life Research Institute.

“Kanda might have started a verbal warning early on, as he wants to fix the exchange rate pegged at around the lower 150 yen level against the dollar at least until around May 15” when the US consumer price index data comes out, Kumano said.

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YIELD PRESSURE

Kanda, the top Japanese currency diplomat, said it is normal practice for a currency authority to not comment on whether it has carried out market intervention, when asked about recent speculations that Japan has conducted yen-buying interventions.

A weaker yen is a boon for Japanese exporters, but a headache for policymakers as it increases import costs, adds to inflationary pressures and squeezes households.

The yen has been under pressure despite the BOJ’s landmark decision to ditch negative interest rates in March as US interest rates have climbed and Japan’s have stayed near zero.

That dynamic has driven cash out of yen and into higher-yielding assets, with the pressure intensifying in recent months as expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts receded.

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Kanda noted that a number of countries in addition to Japan had expressed serious concerns about foreign exchange market volatility in a meeting leading up to a ASEAN+3 finance ministers and central bank governors conference in the Georgian capital Tbilisi last week.

ASEAN+3 groups the 10-member Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) as well as Japan, China and South Korea.

“The current concerns are not confined to Japan,” Kanda said. 

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