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Bank of England caught between inflation fight and recession risk

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Bank of England caught between inflation fight and recession risk

The Bank of England, which looks set to raise interest rates again on Thursday, must weigh up the need to fight an inflation rate running at more than four times its target against the hit to the economy from 13 back-to-back rate hikes so far.

Analysts and investors are mostly expecting a quarter-point increase in Bank Rate, taking it to a 15-year high of 5.25 per cent. They will also be watching for the signals the BoE sends about further increases in the coming months.

Governor Andrew Bailey and his colleagues say the economic impact of their run of rate hikes stretching back to late 2021 has yet to be felt fully. But they also say they must quash an inflation rate that is the highest among major economies.

Below is a summary of key data that the BoE will be watching before its announcement on interest rates at 1100 GMT on Thursday which will be followed by a news conference given by Bailey and other top officials at 1130 GMT.

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British consumer price inflation fell by more than expected in June to 7.9pc in annual terms, down sharply from 8.7pc in May. But it remained the highest among the Group of Seven economies.

A measure of underlying price growth – core inflation, which excludes energy, food, alcohol and tobacco prices – and price increases in the services sector – also eased but remained close to the 31-year highs they hit in May.

The most obvious impact of the increase in the BoE’s Bank Rate from 0.1pc in December 2021 to the current 5.0pc has been in the housing market.

House prices as measured by mortgage lenders Nationwide and Halifax have fallen by their most in annual terms in more than a decade as interest rates on mortgages rise quickly on expectations of further increases to borrowing costs.

The BoE says much of the impact on the housing market from its rate hikes has yet to be felt because most mortgages in Britain are short-term fixed-rate deals which protect homeowners from swings in borrowing costs but are renewing at higher rates.

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Of nearly 7 million fixed-rate mortgages, which account for 80pc of residential home loan deals, around 800,000 end in the second half of 2023 and a further 1.6 million deals end in 2024.

There are signs that companies, especially smaller ones, are struggling as borrowing costs rise, the economy barely grows and the government no longer provides the protections it did during the coronavirus pandemic.

Company insolvencies in England and Wales were the highest since 2009 during the second quarter of 2023.

However, many companies are continuing to hire and are pushing up pay sharply to retain and attract staff, a big worry for the BoE in its battle against inflation.

Data for the three months to May showed wages excluding bonuses rose by the joint highest in records dating back to 2001.
Still, there are also signs that the labour market is cooling. The unemployment rate rose unexpectedly to 4pc in the March-to-May period and the number of vacancies fell for a 12th month in a row to its lowest level since mid-2021.

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Most consumers have managed to keep up the pace of their spending despite inflation’s squeeze on their incomes.

Retail sales volumes unexpectedly rose in June from May, although they were 1.0pc lower than in May of last year.

Many people still have some of their savings from the pandemic. The saving ratio, measuring the income that households save – including pension contributions by employers – as a share of disposable income, stood at 8.7pc in early 2023, down from 9.3pc in late 2022 but higher than 5.6pc just before the pandemic hit.

Consumer confidence, as measured by polling firm GfK, fell in July from a 17-month high in June. It remains below its levels of much of the past 10 years. Household indebtedness is below its high before the 2007-2009 global financial crisis.

The economy has so far defied recession forecasts made only a few months ago, but the recent jump in expectations of higher borrowing costs may yet tip it into a contraction this year after a painfully slow recovery from the Covid lockdowns.

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British gross domestic product has recovered from the pandemic more slowly than all the other G7 economies bar Germany, according to data up to the end of the first quarter of 2023.

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Massive reduction in Punjab flour prices, 20kg bag costing Rs1,000 less: Bilal Yasinv

Massive reduction in Punjab flour prices, 20kg bag costing Rs1,000 less: Bilal Yasinv

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Massive reduction in Punjab flour prices, 20kg bag costing Rs1,000 less: Bilal Yasinv

Highlighting a marked decrease in flour prices, Punjab Food Minister Bilal Yasin on Tuesday said the province already had enough wheat stock to meet the entire needs for year.

Yasin said 20 kilogramme flour bag price had decreased Rs1,000 during the past month and was available for Rs1,700 to Rs1,800 in the market. The current rate of 10 kilogramme bag was Rs900, he added.

Read more: Punjab govt promises to implement new bread prices, blasts those criticising the move

In a statement, the provincial food minister also promised to take action against those responsible for the wheat import scandal which has triggered a crisis for the farmers who are unable to get the promised minimum support price of Rs3,900 per 40 kilogramme as the market is offering much lower rates of Rs2,800 to Rs3,200.

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He reiterated the government stance that the crisis was a result of the caretaker government’s decision of wheat import.

About the ongoing probe ordered by Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif by constituting a fact-finding committee, Yasin said the government was determined to make the report public and hold those accountable behind the episode.

NO MORE WHEAT IMPORT?

He said Punjab currently had carry-forward stock of 2.3 million metric tons of wheat, which was sufficient for period till the next wheat crop harvesting in 2024-25.

The statement is very important because of the fact that Pakistan won’t need any wheat import till even during the next fiscal year as the new wheat crop has already arrived in the market, thus saving precious foreign reserves amid the prevailing financial crisis, which would also keep the rupee strong as a result.

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PUNJAB ROTI PRICES

As Punjab Chief Minister Maryam Nawaz from day one has made price control her primary focus, Yasin also talked about the government decision to slash the roti prices.

“Roti and naan are available at the notified rates across Punjab,” said the minister.

Last month, the Punjab government had slashed the bread prices which jumped higher for a long period due to the increase in wheat prices. Roti price is fixed at Rs16 and naan price at Rs20 – a move that produced the desired results despite initial resistance faced during the first week or so.

Yasin mentioned that around 50 per cent of population in Punjab was living in cities and the people from low-income groups were very happy after the reduction in flour prices.

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Tandoor owners to go on strike over Punjab roti prices notification

Tandoor owners to go on strike over Punjab roti prices notification

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Tandoor owners to go on strike over Punjab roti prices notification

Tandoor owners in Punjab have announced a province-wide strike over the issue bread prices as Chief Minister Maryam Nawaz directed the administration to ensure effective implementation of the new rates.

Soon after assuming the office, Maryam had made price control a top priority of her government and the latest orders are a continuation of a series of measure taken in this regard.

Read more: Administration activated for price control, crackdown on hoarders: Maryam

It is the Muttahida Nanbai Association – a representative body of tandoor owners – announced its decision to start strike from tomorrow (Wednesday), saying the Punjab government had failed to meet their demands.

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Its president, Aftab Gul, says the district administration in Lahore isn’t giving any attention to their demand and they are shutting their businesses across Punjab from Wednesday to register their protest.

The tandoor owners are demanding a new notification of bread prices while calling for keeping the naan prices open and providing flour for roti to ensure implementation of government orders regarding fixing Rs16 as roti prices.

On the other hand, the chief minister in a meeting with assistant commissioners from across Punjab on Monday issued directions on different issues, including monitoring the bread prices notification.

The Punjab government is of the view that flour prices have been slashed – a development that must be reflected in the roti and naan rates.

Read more: Massive reduction in Punjab flour prices, 20kg bag costing Rs1,000 less: Bilal Yasin

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It is not just the low-income workers living separately from their families due to their livelihood compulsions but also a large number of households prefer buying bread from tandoors.

In fact, morning breakfast with naan channa is a tradition in the province, as people young and old rush to the eateries to buy their favourite combo.

Also on Tuesday, Punjab Food Minister Bilal Yasin highlighted a marked decrease in flour prices and said the province already had enough wheat stock to meet the entire needs for year.

Yasin said 20 kilogramme flour bag price had decreased Rs1,000 during the past month and was available for Rs1,700 to Rs1,800 in the market. The current rate of 10 kilogramme bag was Rs900, he added.

Yasin also talked about the government decision to slash the roti prices. “Roti and naan are available at the notified rates across Punjab,” said the minister.

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Last month, the Punjab government had slashed the bread prices which jumped higher for a long period due to the increase in wheat prices. Roti price is fixed at Rs16 and naan price at Rs20 – a move that produced the desired results despite initial resistance faced during the first week or so.

Yasin mentioned that around 50 per cent of population in Punjab was living in cities and the people from low-income groups – who worst affected by inflation – were very happy after the reduction in flour prices. 

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Japan warns of action over volatile currency, notes other nations too share the concerns

Japan warns of action over volatile currency, notes other nations too share the concerns

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Japan warns of action over volatile currency, notes other nations too share the concerns

Japan may have to take action against any disorderly, speculative-driven foreign exchange moves, the government’s top currency diplomat Masato Kanda said on Tuesday, reinforcing Tokyo’s readiness to intervene again to support a fragile yen to control inflation.

“It is preferable for exchange rates to remain in a stable manner following fundamentals, and if the market is functioning soundly in this way, there is of course no need for the government to intervene,” Kanda, Japan’s vice minister of finance for international affairs, told reporters.

“However, when there are excessive fluctuations or disorderly movements due to speculation, the market is not functioning and the government may have to take appropriate action. We will continue to take the same firm approach as we have in the past.”

Tokyo is suspected to have intervened on at least two separate days last week to support the Japanese yen after it tumbled to lows last seen more than three decades ago.

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Bank of Japan data suggested authorities spent more than 9 trillion yen ($58.4 billion) in defence of the currency, helping lift the yen from a 34-year low of 160.245 per dollar to a roughly one-month high of 151.86 over the span of a week.

Tokyo is estimated to have spent around $60bn during its last forays in the market to prop up the yen in September and October 2022.

The Japanese yen, which is down nearly 9 per cent on the dollar this year, was last trading around 154.19 in the Asian afternoon [07:39 GMT].

Japan is reluctant to intervene in the currency market considering its limited available dollar cash reserves and US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen’s comments that such moves were acceptable only in rare circumstances, said Hideo Kumano, chief economist at Dai-ichi Life Research Institute.

“Kanda might have started a verbal warning early on, as he wants to fix the exchange rate pegged at around the lower 150 yen level against the dollar at least until around May 15” when the US consumer price index data comes out, Kumano said.

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YIELD PRESSURE

Kanda, the top Japanese currency diplomat, said it is normal practice for a currency authority to not comment on whether it has carried out market intervention, when asked about recent speculations that Japan has conducted yen-buying interventions.

A weaker yen is a boon for Japanese exporters, but a headache for policymakers as it increases import costs, adds to inflationary pressures and squeezes households.

The yen has been under pressure despite the BOJ’s landmark decision to ditch negative interest rates in March as US interest rates have climbed and Japan’s have stayed near zero.

That dynamic has driven cash out of yen and into higher-yielding assets, with the pressure intensifying in recent months as expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts receded.

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Kanda noted that a number of countries in addition to Japan had expressed serious concerns about foreign exchange market volatility in a meeting leading up to a ASEAN+3 finance ministers and central bank governors conference in the Georgian capital Tbilisi last week.

ASEAN+3 groups the 10-member Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) as well as Japan, China and South Korea.

“The current concerns are not confined to Japan,” Kanda said. 

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