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Doing business in China is growing tougher, more uncertain, says European business group

Doing business in China is growing tougher, more uncertain, says European business group

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Doing business in China is growing tougher, more uncertain, says European business group

Uncertainty and “draconian regulations” have drastically raised risks for foreign businesses in China, a report by a European business group said Wednesday.

The lengthy paper by the European Union Chamber of Commerce in China urges China’s leaders to do more to address concerns that it says have “grown exponentially” in recent years.

“This report comes at a time when the global business environment is becoming increasingly politicized, and companies are having to make some very tough decisions about how, or in some cases if, they can continue to engage with the Chinese market,” it says.

The study, compiled by the chamber and the China Macro Group consultancy, echoes concerns that have been raised by European and American companies operating in China. Foreign investment fell 8% last year from a year earlier as companies recalibrated their commitments in the world’s second largest economy.

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EU Chamber officials said China’s changing business environment partly reflects moves by Beijing to minimize risks due to trade friction and dependence on imports of key commodities or industrial products. That’s especially the case given trade friction with Washington and discussions about “decoupling” supply chains from China after the disruptions that occurred during the COVID-19 pandemic.

But they said European companies also must manage their own risks.

China has sought to emphasize its openness to foreign companies and investment. Its commerce ministry spokesperson said the country was working to ensure 100% access to manufacturing by eliminating remaining trade barriers.

On Tuesday, the State Council, China’s Cabinet, issued an updated version of an action plan announced in July to promote more foreign investment, especially in high-tech areas favoured for growth such as computer chips, biopharmaceuticals and advanced equipment. It promised tariff exemptions and called for stopping practices that discriminate against foreign companies.

But other actions have run counter to that spirit of openness. Raids on foreign businesses in China, unclear state secrets laws and tightening rules on handling of data have generated unease among many foreign business people in the country.

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“The number and severity of risks companies find themselves having to navigate has grown exponentially in recent years,” Jens Eskelund, president of the European Chamber in China, told reporters in a briefing before the report’s release.

At the same time, Beijing has not addressed many of the issues raised by foreign businesses, among them access to government procurement contracts, which are vital given the huge role of state-owned companies in the economy.

It’s particularly difficult for medical equipment companies and research and development. Meanwhile, pharmaceutical companies are “quite alarmed by data security regulations that make clinical trials impossible,” said Markus Herrmann Chen, co-founder and managing director of the China Macro Group.

“We are still the odd guys out, and this needs to change,” Herrmann Chen said.

Part of the challenge results from China’s increased focus on national security in terms of reliance on technologies vital to its own industries. In part, such strategies are driven by U.S. moves to cut off business with Huawei Technologies and to prevent sales of leading edge computer chips and the equipment needed to make them.

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American companies have expressed similar concerns. Sean Stein, the chair of the American Chamber of Commerce in China, said recently that China has made progress in addressing some issues but not others.

“The business community would like both sides to be much clearer about the definitions of national security and how it’s determined,” he said in an interview before an annual chamber banquet with Chinese officials. “Because what we need is … predictability, and we need certainty.”

One sore point for European business: a Chinese announcement of plans for anti-dumping investigations into three French brandy producers: E Remy Martin & Co, Martell & Co and Societe Jas Hennessy & Co.

“It’s hard to see how 300 euro ($330) bottles of XO can be accused of dumping,” Eskelund said.

For its part, China is unhappy with an ongoing European Union investigation into subsidies for electric vehicles in China and whether they have given Chinese makers an unfair advantage in European markets.

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Meanwhile, with regard to cybersecurity, Eskelund said “we’ve seen some very draconian new regulations being published in China.”

He said Europe’s approach to trade and investment issues was “targeted, very limited and very focused on eliminating ‘critical dependencies,’” not at competing with China. But companies still must hedge against risks or potentially be blindsided by policy shifts.

At the same time, companies also face risks in cutting back and must bring their “best game” to China, while others feel too exposed, especially after the shocks of the pandemic, when entire cities were ordered into lockdown and factories suspended production at times.

China’s market has become “less predictable, reliable and efficient,” the report says, partly because the business environment is more politicized.

Eskelund called on China to restore predictability to the regulatory environment.

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“Predictability was one of the main things that made China so enormously attractive,” he said. “We might not like everything we saw but we knew what we got.”

He said the purpose of the report is to try to bring the debate over de-risking and national security down to the level of specific industries and commodities so that the various sides are not just hurling big abstract concepts at each other.

“We want to find common ground,” he said. “We want to work with China on these issues. We want to work with Europe on these issues.” 

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JP Morgan predicts lower gas and LNG prices, which will help switch from coal

JP Morgan predicts lower gas and LNG prices, which will help switch from coal

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JP Morgan predicts lower gas and LNG prices, which will help switch from coal

Global natural gas prices will come under pressure through the end of the decade as supply and shipping infrastructure grow rapidly, particularly in Qatar and the US, JP Morgan said in a report.

Read more: Is Pakistan in the race? It should be: QatarEnergy CEO says new LNG supply deals ‘imminent’

The growth in gas output and liquefied natural gas (LNG) facilities, which allow tankers to transport the fuel around the world, will boost efforts to switch industries from highly polluting coal to gas, which can cut greenhouse gas emissions by as much as half, the report said.

The US investment bank forecasts a 2 per cent annual growth in natural gas production by 2030 to 4,600 billion cubic metres (bcm) from 4,000 bcm in 2022, which will lead to an oversupply of 63 bcm by the end of the decade.

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Read more: Oil down over 3pc during the week despite Israel-Iran tensions

LNG exporting infrastructure is expected to grow by 156 bcm by 2030 from nearly 600 bcm in 2024.

The primary sources of production growth are expected to encompass the US, the Middle East and to a lesser extent Russia, the report said.

“We see a downward global LNG price trajectory with increased volatility driven by a structurally oversupplied market,” JP Morgan Global chief global energy strategist Christyan Malek told Reuters.

Read more: Russia cuts oil price forecast to $65 per barrel in 2024-27

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The world’s leading oil companies including Shell, BP and TotalEnergies are betting on growing demand for gas and LNG as economies grow and switch from coal to natural gas as part of their efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.

The sharp growth in gas supply and the drop in prices could lead to a rapid conversion from coal to gas that could save up to around 17pc of global carbon emissions, the report said.

Read more: Refineries against fuel price deregulation which Ogra says will boost competition

“While the risks of oversupply in global LNG towards the end of the decade are well understood, we believe the upside potential of coal to gas switching on LNG demand has been underestimated,” Malek said.

The European oil companies’ plans to grow gas and LNG output will however have a minimal impact on their plans to reduce carbon emission intensity of their business by 2030, research firm Accela said in a recent report.

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Thailand interest rates: Thai lenders to cut rate by 25 bps for ‘vulnerable groups’

Thailand interest rates: Thai lenders to cut rate by 25 bps for ‘vulnerable groups’

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Thailand interest rates: Thai lenders to cut rate by 25 bps for 'vulnerable groups'

Thai banks will cut lending rates by 25 basis points for vulnerable groups for a period of six months, a bankers’ association said on Thursday, responding to a government request to help small businesses.

Thai Prime Minister Srettha Thavisin has been repeatedly pressing the central bank to cut interest rates from a more than decade high of 2.50 per cent, saying it is hurting businesses as the economy confronts stubbornly high household debt and China’s slowdown.

Read more: Thailand interest rates conundrum: Economy shrinks, as PM wants cuts but central bank doesn’t

He this week said he had asked Thailand’s four largest lenders to lower their rates.

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The banks’ rate cuts will be for both individual and SME customers and will help reduce their interest burden and support their recovery, the bankers’ association said in a statement.

“Thailand member banks will expedite consideration of implementing the aforementioned principle and prepare the work system to answer the needs of vulnerable customers of each bank in the appropriate context as quickly as possible,” it said.

The Bank of Thailand left its key interest rate unchanged for a third straight meeting on April 10, resisting government pressure to ease, saying the rate still supported the economy. The next rate review is on June 12.

Read more: Interest rates continue creating fissures between governments and central banks

The association said its move was in the same direction as the government in driving the economy and in line with the central bank’s responsible lending.

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An official said it was up to each participating bank to decide when they would implement the measure.

On Wednesday, the central bank said the current policy rate was close to neutral, robust and could handle future risks to the economy, but the rate could be adjusted if needed.

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War on inflation: Hungary gives fuel traders two weeks to match regional average prices

War on inflation: Hungary gives fuel traders two weeks to match regional average prices

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War on inflation: Hungary gives fuel traders two weeks to match regional average prices

Hungary’s government is giving fuel traders two weeks to adjust their prices to the central European average, Economy Minister Marton Nagy was quoted by the index.hu outlet as telling a news conference on Wednesday.

Prime Minister Viktor Orban’s government scrapped a fuel price cap in December 2022 after a lack of imports and panic buying led to fuel shortages, but promised it would intervene again if fuel prices rose above the regional average.

On Tuesday, the national bank said fuel price margins had widened since the cap was scrapped, exceeding not just their previous levels but also average levels seen elsewhere in central Europe.

“In two weeks, the government will revisit this issue, look at price developments and intervene with tough measures if fuel retailers do not return to the regional average,” Marton Nagy was quoted as saying.

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Read more: Refineries against fuel price deregulation which Ogra says will boost competition

On Tuesday, deputy central bank governor Barnabas Virag said he believed any intervention that “moves the market towards a lasting and sustainable decrease in these margins, setting fuel prices on a lasting and sustainable lower path” was justified.

In the first quarter of last year, annual inflation in Hungary stood at 25 per cent, the highest in the European Union. It stood at 3.6pc last March, but economists see it rebounding to 5.4pc by the end of 2024 as base effects fade and services inflation stays hot.

Morgan Stanley economist Georgi Deyanov said Hungary’s plan to align fuel prices to the regional average could trim 20 to 30 basis points off headline inflation, raising the chances of keeping it within the central bank’s tolerance band.

“We think that such an outcome would create a favourable environment for the NBH to proceed with 25bp of rate cuts per meeting in 3Q24,” he said.

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“Yet, for the central bank to consider such an option, we believe more favourable global financial conditions would need to materialise too.”

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